Modeling comorbidity of chronic diseases using coupled hidden Markov model with bivariate discrete copula

Does a GP service package matter in addressing the absence of health management by the occupational population? A modelling study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the influence of supply and demand factors on the contract behavior of occupational populations with general practitioner (GP) teams.

METHODS

We employed a system dynamics approach to assess and predict the effect of the general practitioner service package (GPSP) and complementary incentive policies on the contract rate for 2015-2030. First, the GPSP is designed to address the unique needs of occupational populations, enhancing the attractiveness of GP contracting services, including three personalized service contents tailored to demand-side considerations: work-related disease prevention (WDP), health education & counseling (HEC), and health-care service (HCS). Second, the complementary incentive policies on the supply-side included income incentives (II), job title promotion (JTP), and education & training (ET). Considering the team collaboration, the income distribution ratio (IDR) was also incorporated into supply-side factors.

FINDINGS

The contract rate is predicted to increase to 57.8% by 2030 after the GPSP intervention, representing a 15.4% increase on the non-intervention scenario. WDP and HEC have a slightly higher (by 2%) impact on the contract rate than that from HCS. Regarding the supply-side policies, II have a more significant impact on the contract rate than JTP and ET by 3-5%. The maximum predicted contract rate of 75.2% is expected by 2030 when the IDR is 0.5, i.e., the GP receives 50% of the contract income and other members share 50%.

CONCLUSION

The GP service package favorably increased the contract rate among occupational population, particularly after integrating the incentive policies. Specifically, for a given demand level, the targeted content of the package enhanced the attractiveness of contract services. On the supply side, the incentive policies boost GPs' motivation, and the income distribution motivated other team members.

Comorbidity risk and distribution characteristics of chronic diseases in the elderly population in China

BACKGROUND

The risk of comorbid chronic diseases in elderly people is an important problem affecting their health and quality of life. We analyzed the incidence of chronic diseases for combinations of chronic diseases analyzed.

METHODS

We used the original data to construct hypothetical cohorts of elderly individuals that evolved with age. The complex network was used to reduce the dimensionality of disease. The multistate transition model is used to calculate the incidence of each chronic disease, exploring comorbidity characteristics and rules.

RESULTS

(1) By using complex network, seven chronic diseases were screened out in men, including hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, stroke, chronic lung disease, arthritis and dyslipidemia; six chronic diseases in women showed significant comorbidity except chronic lung disease. (2) Incidence show differences in age and sex; incidence of chronic diseases generally increased with age. (3) The marginal risk increases with the number of basic chronic diseases associated with comorbidities. (4) When hypertension is present as a basic disease, its impact on the risk of other chronic diseases is much less than that of other chronic diseases. (5) When diseases occur as basic chronic diseases, hypertension-heart disease and diabetes-dyslipidemia are combinations that have the greatest impact on each other in men; hypertension-heart disease in women.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of chronic diseases in patients who have chronic diseases and will form comorbidities differs from that in healthy states, and the related effects of different chronic diseases also differ. Among these conditions, hypertension is caused by a special mechanism.