Effect of once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy screening on the outcomes of subsequent faecal occult blood test screening

Long-term effects of once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy screening on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality: 21-year follow-up of the UK Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Flexible sigmoidoscopy screening reduces colorectal cancer incidence and mortality; however, uncertainty exists about the duration of protection and differences by sex and age. We assessed effects of once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy screening after 21 years' follow-up.

METHODS

The UK Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening Trial is a multicentre randomised controlled trial that recruited men and women aged 55-64 years from general practices serving 14 hospitals. Among participants indicating that they would attend flexible sigmoidoscopy screening if invited, randomisation (2:1) to the control (no further contact) or intervention (invited to once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy screening) group was performed centrally in blocks of 12, stratified by centre, general practice, and household type. Masking of intervention was infeasible. Primary outcomes were colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. The Kaplan-Meier method estimated cumulative incidence. Primary analyses estimated intention-to-treat hazard ratios (HRs) and risk differences, overall and stratified by subsite, sex, and age. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 28352761.

FINDINGS

Among participants recruited between Nov 14, 1994, and March 30, 1999, 170 432 were eligible and 113 195 were randomly assigned to the control group and 57 237 were randomly assigned to the intervention group. 406 participants were excluded from analyses (268 in the control group and 138 in the intervention group), leaving 112 927 participants in the control group (55 336 [49%] men and 57 591 [51%] women) and 57 099 in the intervention group (27 966 [49%] men and 29 103 [51%] women). Of participants who were invited to be screened, 40 624 (71%) attended screening. Median follow-up was 21·3 years (IQR 18·0-22·2). In the invited-to-screening group, colorectal cancer incidence was reduced compared with the control group (1631 vs 4201 cases; cumulative incidence at 21 years was 3·18% [95% CI 3·03 to 3·34] vs 4·16% [4·04 to 4·29]; HR 0·76 [95% CI 0·72 to 0·81]) with 47 fewer cases per 100 000 person-years (95% CI -56 to -37). Colorectal cancer mortality was also reduced in the invited-to-screening group compared with the control group (502 vs 1329 deaths; cumulative incidence at 21 years was 0·97% [0·88 to 1·06] vs 1·33% [1·26 to 1·40]; HR 0·75 [0·67 to 0·83]) with 16 fewer deaths per 100 000 person-years (-21 to -11). Effects were particularly evident in the distal colorectum (726 incident cancer cases in the invited-to-screening group vs 2434 cases in the control group; HR 0·59 [0·54 to 0·64]; 47 fewer cases per 100 000 person-years [-54 to -41]; 196 cancer deaths in the invited-to-screening group vs 708 deaths in the control group; HR 0·55 [0·47 to 0·64]; 15 fewer deaths per 100 000 person-years [-19 to -12]) and not the proximal colon (871 incident cancer cases in the invited-to-screening group vs 1749 cases in the control group; HR 0·98 [0·91 to 1·07]; one fewer case per 100 000 person-years [-8 to 5]; 277 cancer deaths in the invited-to-screening group vs 547 deaths in the control group; HR 1·00 [0·86 to 1·15]; zero fewer deaths per 100 000 person-years [-4 to 4]). The HR for colorectal cancer incidence was lower in men (0·70 [0·65-0·76]) than women (0·86 [0·79 to 0·93]; pinteraction=0·0007) but there was no difference by age.

INTERPRETATION

We show that once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy screening reduces colorectal cancer incidence and mortality for two decades and provide important data to inform colorectal cancer screening guidelines.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment Programme and the Medical Research Council.

Calibrating Natural History of Cancer Models in the Presence of Data Incompatibility: Problems and Solutions

The calibration of cancer natural history models is often challenged by a lack of representative calibration targets, forcing modellers to rely on potentially incompatible datasets. Using a microsimulation colorectal cancer model as an example, the purposes of this paper are to (1) highlight the reasons for uncertainty in calibration targets, (2) illustrate practical and generalisable approaches for dealing with incompatibility in calibration targets, and (3) discuss the importance of future research in the area of incorporating uncertainty in calibration. The low quality of data and differences in populations, outcome definitions, and healthcare systems may result in incompatibility between the model and the data. Acknowledging reasons for data incompatibility allows assessment of the risk of incompatibility before calibrating the model. Only a few approaches are available to address data incompatibility, for instance addressing biases in calibration targets and their adjustment, relaxing the goodness-of-fit metric, and validation of the calibration targets to the data not used in the calibration. However, these approaches lack explicit comparison and validation, and so more research is needed to describe the nature and causes of indirect uncertainty (i.e. uncertainty that cannot be expressed in absolute quantitative forms) and identify methods for managing this uncertainty in healthcare modelling.

Medical costs according to the stages of colorectal cancer: an analysis of health insurance claims in Hachioji, Japan

BACKGROUND

Although the effect of the early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) on medical costs needs to be clarified, there are few reports on the actual medical costs of CRC patients in Japan. We aimed to identify medical costs according to CRC stage, using health insurance claims.

METHODS

This observational study included CRC patients who had received specific treatment for CRC, which was defined by the procedure code and the claim computer processing system code associated with the treatment of CRC. CRC patients who underwent endoscopic or radical surgical treatment were defined as the curable group and those with palliative treatment, including palliative chemotherapy, as the non-curable group. Total medical costs and medical costs of specific treatments for CRC for 3 years were measured using the claims held by Hachioji City from May 2014 to July 2019.

RESULTS

This study included 442 patients in the curable group, including 267 patients who underwent endoscopic treatment, and 175 patients who underwent radical surgical treatment, and 161 patients in the non-curable group. The mean (standard deviation) total medical costs in the curable and non-curable groups were 2,130 (2,494) and 8,279 (5,600) thousand Japanese Yen (JPY), respectively. The mean (standard deviation) medical costs for the specific treatment of CRC in the curable and non-curable groups were 408 (352) and 3,685 (3,479) thousand JPY, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We clarified the actual medical costs of CRC in curable and non-curable groups. These results suggest the effect of early detection of CRC in reducing medical costs.

Randomized controlled trial: Flexible sigmoidoscopy as an adjunct to faecal occult blood testing in population screening

Objectives

Flexible sigmoidoscopy screening at around age 60 can reduce colorectal cancer incidence. Insufficient evidence exists on flexible sigmoidoscopy at age 60 in a population being offered biennial faecal occult blood test screening from age 50. This randomized controlled trial assessed if flexible sigmoidoscopy would be an effective adjunct to faecal occult blood test.

Methods

In the Scottish Bowel Screening Programme between June 2014 and December 2015, 51,769 individuals were randomized to be offered flexible sigmoidoscopy instead of faecal occult blood test at age 60 or to continue faecal occult blood test. Those not accepting flexible sigmoidoscopy and those with normal flexible sigmoidoscopy were offered faecal occult blood test. All with flexible sigmoidoscopy-detected neoplasia or a positive faecal occult blood test result were offered colonoscopy.

Results

Overall flexible sigmoidoscopy uptake was 17.8%, higher in men than women, and decreased with increasing deprivation (25.7% in the least to 9.2% in the most deprived quintile). In those who underwent flexible sigmoidoscopy, detection rate for colorectal cancer was 0.13%, for adenoma 7.27%, and for total neoplasia 7.40%. In those who underwent colonoscopy after a positive flexible sigmoidoscopy, detection rate for colorectal cancer was 0.28%, adenoma 8.66%, and total neoplasia 8.83%. On an intention to screen basis, there was no difference in colorectal cancer detection rate between the study and control groups. Adenoma and total neoplasia detection rate were significantly higher in the study group, with odds ratios of 5.95 (95%CI: 4.69–7.56) and 5.10 (95%CI: 4.09–6.35), respectively.

Conclusions

In a single screening round at age 60, there was low uptake and neoplasia detection rate. Flexible sigmoidoscopy detected significantly more neoplasia than faecal occult blood test alone.