Prognostic utilization of models based on the APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPS II scores for predicting in-hospital mortality in emergency department

BACKGROUND

This study was designed to evaluate and compare the prognostic value of the APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPSII scores for predicting in-hospital mortality in the ED on a large sample of patients. Earlier studies in the ED setting have either used a small sample or focused on specific diagnoses.

METHODS

A prospective study was conducted to include patients with higher risk of mortality from March 2016 to March 2017 in the ED of Emam Reza Hospital, northeast of Iran. Logistic regression was used to develop three models. Evaluation was performed in terms of the overall performance (Brier Score, BS, and Brier Skill Score, BSS), discrimination (Area Under the Curve, AUC), and calibration (calibration graph).

RESULTS

A total of 2205 patients met the study criteria (53% male and median age of 64, IQR: 50-77). In-hospital mortality amounted to 19%. For APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPS II the BS was 0.132, 0.125 and 0.133 and the BSS was 0.156, 0.2, and 0.144, respectively. The AUC was 0.755 (0.74 to 0.779) for APACHE II, 0.794 (0.775 to 0.818) for APACHE IV, and 0.751 (0.727 to 0.776) for SAPS II. The APACHE IV showed significantly greater AUC in comparison to the APACHE II and SAPS II. The graphical evaluation revealed good calibration of the APACHE IV model.

CONCLUSION

APACHEIV outperformed APACHEII and SAPSII in terms of discrimination and calibration. More validation is needed for using these models for decision-making about individual patients, although they would perform best at a cohort level.

Simplified acute physiology score II/acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II and prediction of the mortality and later development of complications in poisoned patients admitted to intensive care unit

We aimed to determine the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II in poisoned patients admitted to the poisoning ICU and compare them to see which is a more sensitive and specific system for prognostication of the mortality and complications in these patients. Between February 2013 and July 2013, all patients referring to our centre with any poisoning mandating ICU admission were prospectively included. On ICU arrival, a questionnaire containing the demographic data, parameters of the APACHE II and SAPS II scores, the sum of the scores, complications during the stay and the patients' final outcome (compete recovery versus death) was filled for every single patient. A total of 195 patients were evaluated. Forty-two patients (21.5%) died. Mean SAPS and APACHE scores were 41 ± 16 and 15 ± 6, respectively. Mean SAPS and APACHE scores were significantly different between the survivors and non-survivors. Both scores could successfully prognosticate the development of the complications (p = 0.07 and 0.013, respectively). APACHE II was a better score in prediction of both mortality and later complications in the setting of poisoning ICU. APACHE >22 has a good specificity in determining the mortality and development of further complications in poisoned patients admitted to the medical toxicology ICUs. SAPS II score >59 and >43 can predict the risk of mortality and later complications in these patients, as well.