A Simulation Model of Intraherd Transmission of Foot and Mouth Disease with Reference to Disease Spread before and after Clinical Diagnosis

Inferring transmission routes for foot-and-mouth disease virus within a cattle herd using approximate Bayesian computation

To control an outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to understand the different routes of transmission and how they contribute to the overall spread of the pathogen. With this information, policy makers can choose the most efficient methods of detection and control during an outbreak. Here we assess the contributions of direct contact and environmental contamination to the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in a cattle herd using an individual-based model that includes both routes. Model parameters are inferred using approximate Bayesian computation with sequential Monte Carlo sampling (ABC-SMC) applied to data from transmission experiments and the 2007 epidemic in Great Britain. This demonstrates that the parameters derived from transmission experiments are applicable to outbreaks in the field, at least for closely related strains. Under the assumptions made in the model we show that environmental transmission likely contributes a majority of infections within a herd during an outbreak, although there is a lot of variation between simulated outbreaks. The accumulation of environmental contamination not only causes infections within a farm, but also has the potential to spread between farms via fomites. We also demonstrate the importance and effectiveness of rapid detection of infected farms in reducing transmission between farms, whether via direct contact or the environment.

Laboratory testing and on-site storage are successful at mitigating the risk of release of foot-and-mouth disease virus via production of bull semen in the USA

Thousands of frozen bovine semen doses are produced daily in the US for domestic use. An incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the country would pose strong challenges to the movements of animals and animal products between premises. Secure supply plans require an estimation of the risk associated with target commodities and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. This study presents the results of a quantitative assessment of the risk of release of FMD virus from five of the largest commercial bull studs in the US via contaminated frozen processed semen. The methodology from a previous study was adapted to better fit the US production system and includes more recent data. Two models were combined, a deterministic compartmental model of FMD transmission and a stochastic risk assessment model. The compartmental model simulated an FMD outbreak within a collection facility, following the introduction of a latent-infected bull. The risk of release was defined as the annual likelihood of releasing at least one frozen semen batch, defined as the total amount of semen collected from a single bull on a given collection day, containing viable FMD virus. A scenario tree was built using nine steps leading from the collection to the release of a contaminated batch from a given facility. The first step, the annual probability of an FMD outbreak in a given facility, was modeled using an empirical distribution fitted to incidence data predicted by five models published between 2012 and 2022. An extra step was added to the previously published risk pathway, to account for routine serological or virological surveillance within facilities. The results showed that the mitigation measures included in the assessment were effective at reducing the risk of release. The median annual risk of release from the five facilities was estimated at less than 2 in 10 billion (1.5 x 10-10) in the scenario including a 30-day storage, routine genome detection assays performed every two weeks and RT-PCR testing of the semen. In this scenario, there was a 95% chance that the risk of release would be lower than 0.00041. This work provides strong support to the industry for improving their response plans to an incursion of FMD virus in the US.

Simulation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread and Effects of Mitigation Strategies to Support Veterinary Contingency Planning in Denmark

To forge a path towards livestock disease emergency preparedness in Denmark, 15 different strategies to mitigate foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were examined by modelling epidemics initiated in cattle, pig or small ruminant herds across various production systems located in four different Danish regions (Scenario 1), or in one specific livestock production system within each of the three species geographically distributed throughout Denmark (Scenario 2). When additional mitigation strategies were implemented on top of basic control strategies in the European foot-and-mouth disease spread model (EuFMDiS), no significant benefits were predicted in terms of the number of infected farms, the epidemic control duration, and the total economic cost. Further, the model results indicated that the choice of index herd, the resources for outbreak control, and the detection time of FMD significantly influenced the course of an epidemic. The present study results emphasise the importance of basic mitigation strategies, including an effective back-and-forward traceability system, adequate resources for outbreak response, and a high level of awareness among farmers and veterinarians concerning the detection and reporting of FMD at an early stage of an outbreak for FMD control in Denmark.

An exploration of within-herd dynamics of a transboundary livestock disease: A foot and mouth disease case study

Transboundary livestock diseases are a high priority for policy makers because of the serious economic burdens associated with infection. In order to make well informed preparedness and response plans, policy makers often utilize mathematical models to understand possible outcomes of different control strategies and outbreak scenarios. Many of these models focus on the transmission between herds and the overall trajectory of the outbreak. While the course of infection within herds has not been the focus of the majority of models, a thorough understanding of within-herd dynamics can provide valuable insight into a disease system by providing information on herd-level biological properties of the infection, which can be used to inform decision making in both endemic and outbreak settings and to inform larger between-herd models. In this study, we develop three stochastic simulation models to study within-herd foot and mouth disease dynamics and the implications of different empirical data-based assumptions about the timing of the onset of infectiousness and clinical signs. We also study the influence of herd size and the proportion of the herd that is initially infected on the outcome of the infection. We find that increasing herd size increases the duration of infectiousness and that the size of the herd plays a more significant role in determining this duration than the number of initially infected cattle in that herd. We also find that the assumptions made regarding the onset of infectiousness and clinical signs, which are based on contradictory empirical findings, can result in the predictions about when infection would be detectable differing by several days. Therefore, the disease progression used to characterize the course of infection in a single bovine host could have significant implications for determining when herds can be detected and subsequently controlled; the timing of which could influence the overall predicted trajectory of outbreaks.

A Meta-Population Model of Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Transmission, Clinical Manifestation, and Detection Within U.S. Beef Feedlots

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has not been reported in the U.S. since 1929. Recent outbreaks in previously FMD-free countries raise concerns about potential FMD introductions in the U.S. Mathematical modeling is the only tool for simulating infectious disease outbreaks in non-endemic territories. In the majority of prior studies, FMD virus (FMDv) transmission on-farm was modeled assuming homogenous animal mixing. This assumption is implausible for U.S. beef feedlots which are divided into multiple home-pens without contact between home-pens except fence line with contiguous home-pens and limited mixing in hospital pens. To project FMDv transmission and clinical manifestation in a feedlot, we developed a meta-population stochastic model reflecting the contact structure. Within a home-pen, the dynamics were represented assuming homogenous animal mixing by a modified SLIR (susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered) model with four additional compartments tracing cattle with subclinical or clinical FMD and infectious status. Virus transmission among home-pens occurred via cattle mixing in hospital-pen(s), cowboy pen rider movements between home-pens, airborne, and for contiguous home-pens fence-line and via shared water-troughs. We modeled feedlots with a one-time capacity of 4,000 (small), 12,000 (medium), and 24,000 (large) cattle. Common cattle demographics, feedlot layout, endemic infectious and non-infectious disease occurrence, and production management were reflected. Projected FMD-outbreak duration on a feedlot ranged from 49 to 82 days. Outbreak peak day (with maximum number of FMD clinical cattle) ranged from 24 (small) to 49 (large feedlot). Detection day was 4-12 post-FMD-introduction with projected 28, 9, or 4% of cattle already infected in a small, medium, or large feedlot, respectively. Depletion of susceptible cattle in a feedlot occurred by day 23-51 post-FMD-introduction. Parameter-value sensitivity analyses were performed for model outputs. Detection occurred sooner if there was a higher initial proportion of latent animals in the index home-pen. Shorter outbreaks were associated with a shorter latent period and higher bovine respiratory disease morbidity (impacting the in-hospital-pen cattle mixing occurrence). This first model of potential FMD dynamics on U.S. beef feedlots shows the importance of capturing within-feedlot cattle contact structure for projecting infectious disease dynamics. Our model provides a tool for evaluating FMD outbreak control strategies.

Modeling the Transmission of Foot and Mouth Disease to Inform Transportation of Infected Carcasses to a Disposal Site During an Outbreak Event

In the event of a Food and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in the United States, an infected livestock premises is likely to result in a high number of carcasses (swine and/or cattle) as a result of depopulation. If relocating infected carcasses to an off-site disposal site is allowed, the virus may have increased opportunity to spread to uninfected premises and result in exposure of susceptible livestock. A stochastic within-herd disease spread model was used to predict the time to detect the disease by observation of clinical signs within the herd, and the number of animals in different disease stages over time. Expert opinion was elicited to estimate depopulation parameters in various scenarios. Disease detection was assumed when 5% of the population showed clinical signs by direct observation. Time to detection (5 and 95th percentile values) was estimated for all swine farm sizes (500-10,000 head) ranged from 102 to 282 h, from 42 to 216 h for all dairy cattle premises sizes (100-2,000 head) and from 66 to 240 h for all beef cattle premises sizes (5,000-50,000 head). Total time from infection to beginning depopulation (including disease detection and confirmation) for the first FMD infected case was estimated between 8.5-14.3 days for swine, 6-12.8 days for dairy or beef cattle premises. Total time estimated for subsequent FMD cases was between 6.8-12.3 days for swine, 4.3-10.8 days for dairy and 4.5-10.5 days for beef cattle premises. On an average sized operation, a sizable proportion of animals in the herd (34-56% of swine, 48-60% of dairy cattle, and 47-60% of beef cattle for the first case and 49-60% of swine, 55-60% of dairy cattle, 56-59% of beef cattle for subsequent cases) would be viremic at the time of beginning depopulation. A very small fraction of body fluids from the carcasses (i.e., 1 mL) would contain virus that greatly exceeds the minimum infectious dose by oral (4-7x) or inhalation (7-13x) route for pigs and cattle.

Horizontal transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus O/JPN/2010 among different animal species by direct contact

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and easily transmitted among species of cloven-hoofed animals. To investigate the transmission of FMD virus (FMDV) among different animal species, experimental infections using the O/JPN/2010 strain were performed in cows, goats and pigs. One cow or two goats/pigs were housed with a different species of inoculated animals, and clinical observations, virus shedding and antibody responses were analysed daily. Whilst all cows and goats were infected horizontally by contact with inoculated pigs, transmission from cows to goats/pigs and from goats to cows/pigs was not observed in all in-contact animals. In particular, no pigs were infected horizontally by contact with inoculated goats. Comparison with our previous study on experimental infections among animals of the same species indicates that horizontal transmission occurred more easily between animals of the same species than between those of the different species. These findings will be useful for establishing and performing species-specific countermeasures in farms and regions where multiple species of animals coexist in potential future outbreaks.

Managing complexity: Simplifying assumptions of foot-and-mouth disease models for swine

Compartmental models have often been used to test the effectiveness and efficiency of alternative control strategies to mitigate the spread of infectious animal diseases. A fundamental principle of epidemiological modelling is that models should start as simple as possible and become as complex as needed. The simplest version of a compartmental model assumes that the population is closed, void of births and deaths and that this closed population mixes homogeneously, meaning that each infected individual has an equal probability of coming into contact with each susceptible individual in the population. However, this assumption may oversimplify field conditions, leading to conclusions about disease mitigation strategies that are suboptimal. Here, we assessed the impact of the homogeneous mixing/closed population assumption, which is commonly assumed for within-farm models of highly contagious diseases of swine, such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), on predictions about disease spread. Incorporation of farm structure (different barns or rooms for breeding and gestation, farrowing, nursery and finishing) and demography (piglet births and deaths, and animal movement within and off of the farm) resulted in transmission dynamics that differed in the latter portion of an outbreak. Specifically, farm structure and demography, which were included in the farrow to finish and farrow to wean farms, resulted in FMD virus persistence within the population under certain conditions. Results here demonstrate the impact of incorporating farm structure and demography into models of FMD spread in swine populations and will ultimately contribute to the design and evaluation of effective disease control strategies to mitigate the impact of potential incursions.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission dynamics and persistence in a herd of vaccinated dairy cattle in India

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an important transboundary disease with substantial economic impacts. Although between-herd transmission of the disease has been well studied, studies focusing on within-herd transmission using farm-level outbreak data are rare. The aim of this study was to estimate parameters associated with within-herd transmission, host physiological factors and FMD virus (FMDV) persistence using data collected from an outbreak that occurred at a large, organized dairy farm in India. Of 1,836 regularly vaccinated, adult dairy cattle, 222 had clinical signs of FMD over a 39-day period. Assuming homogenous mixing, a frequency-dependent compartmental model of disease transmission was built. The transmission coefficient and basic reproductive number were estimated to be between 16.2-18.4 and 67-88, respectively. Non-pregnant animals were more likely to manifest clinical signs of FMD as compared to pregnant cattle. Based on oropharyngeal fluid (probang) sampling and FMDV-specific RT-PCR, four of 36 longitudinally sampled animals (14%) were persistently infected carriers 10.5 months post-outbreak. There was no statistical difference between subclinical and clinically infected animals in the duration of the carrier state. However, prevalence of NSP-ELISA antibodies differed significantly between subclinical and clinically infected animals 12 months after the outbreak with 83% seroprevalence amongst clinically infected cattle compared to 69% of subclinical animals. This study further elucidates within-herd FMD transmission dynamics during the acute-phase and characterizes duration of FMDV persistence and seroprevalence of FMD under natural conditions in an endemic setting.

Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Release of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus via Export of Bull Semen from Israel

Various foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus strains circulate in the Middle East, causing frequent episodes of FMD outbreaks among Israeli livestock. Since the virus is highly resistant in semen, artificial insemination with contaminated bull semen may lead to the infection of the receiver cow. As a non-FMD-free country with vaccination, Israel is currently engaged in trading bull semen only with countries of the same status. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of release of FMD virus through export of bull semen in order to estimate the risk for FMD-free countries considering purchasing Israeli bull semen. A stochastic risk assessment model was used to estimate this risk, defined as the annual likelihood of exporting at least one ejaculate of bull semen contaminated with viable FMD virus. A total of 45 scenarios were assessed to account for uncertainty and variability around specific parameter estimates and to evaluate the effect of various mitigation measures, such as performing a preexport test on semen ejaculates. Under the most plausible scenario, the annual likelihood of exporting bull semen contaminated with FMD virus had a median of 1.3 * 10^-7 for an export of 100 ejaculates per year. This corresponds to one infected ejaculate exported every 7 million years. Under the worst-case scenario, the median of the risk rose to 7.9 * 10^-5 , which is equivalent to the export of one infected ejaculate every 12,000 years. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential parameter is the probability of viral excretion in infected bulls.

Evaluation of Strategies to Control a Potential Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Sweden

To minimize the potential consequences of an introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Europe, European Union (EU) member states are required to present a contingency plan. This study used a simulation model to study potential outbreak scenarios in Sweden and evaluate the best control strategies. The model was informed by the Swedish livestock structure using herd information from cattle, pig, and small ruminant holdings in the country. The contact structure was based on animal movement data and studies investigating the movements between farms of veterinarians, service trucks, and other farm visitors. All scenarios of outbreak control included depopulation of detected herds, 3 km protection and 10 km surveillance zones, movement tracing, and 3 days national standstill. The effect of availability of surveillance resources, i.e., number of field veterinarians per day, and timeliness of enforcement of interventions, was assessed. With the estimated currently available resources, an FMD outbreak in Sweden is expected to be controlled (i.e., last infected herd detected) within 3 weeks of detection in any evaluated scenario. The density of farms in the area where the epidemic started would have little impact on the time to control the outbreak, but spread in high density areas would require more surveillance resources, compared to areas of lower farm density. The use of vaccination did not result in a reduction in the expected number of infected herds. Preemptive depopulation was able to reduce the number of infected herds in extreme scenarios designed to test a combination of worst-case conditions of virus introduction and spread, but at the cost of doubling the number of herds culled. This likely resulted from a combination of the small outbreaks predicted by the spread model, and the high efficacy of the basic control measures evaluated, under the conditions of the Swedish livestock industry, and considering the assumed control resources available. The results indicate that the duration and extent of FMD outbreaks could be kept limited in Sweden using the EU standard control strategy and a 3 days national standstill.

Direct and indirect effects of wastewater use and herd environment on the occurrence of animal diseases and animal health in Pakistan

The use of wastewater for rearing domestic animals is a common phenomenon in most of the developing countries like Pakistan that face a serious shortage of freshwater resources. However, most of the literature has only focused on the indirect effects of wastewater use on animal health or productivity, and literature on the direct effects of wastewater use is rare. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the direct and indirect effects of wastewater usage on the prevalence of animal diseases and animal health in Pakistan. The study is based on a household-level survey of 360 domestic water buffalo herds collected from 12 districts of Punjab Province, Pakistan. We tested the prevalence of the animal's diseases, animal's health, and wastewater-use preference with various econometric tools, such as the Poisson, negative binomial, and logistic regressions. The findings of the study show that the majority of the farmers use wastewater for buffalo bathing due to the shortage of freshwater resources. Results explore the prevalence of diseases such as clinical mastitis, tick infestation, and foot and mouth disease at the farm level significantly associated with buffalo bathing in the wastewater. Moreover, bathing in wastewater pre- and post-milking also plays a role in the occurrence of diseases. Particularly, if the buffalo's access to wastewater for bathing is within 60 min after milking, the probability of the animals being exposed to mastitis is higher. Furthermore, on investigation, a number of factors are found, such as the distance to the water source, power shortage, groundwater availability, and the education of farmers that influence farmers' behavior of letting their animals take a bath in wastewater. Moreover, the use of different preventive measures improves the animal's health.

Transmission of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus during the Incubation Period in Pigs

Understanding the quantitative characteristics of a pathogen’s capability to transmit during distinct phases of infection is important to enable accurate predictions of the spread and impact of a disease outbreak. In the current investigation, the potential for transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) during the incubation (preclinical) period of infection was investigated in seven groups of pigs that were sequentially exposed to a group of donor pigs that were infected by simulated-natural inoculation. Contact-exposed pigs were comingled with infected donors through successive 8-h time slots spanning from 8 to 64 h post-inoculation (hpi) of the donor pigs. The transition from latent to infectious periods in the donor pigs was clearly defined by successful transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to all contact pigs that were exposed to the donors from 24 hpi and later. This onset of infectiousness occurred concurrent with detection of viremia, but approximately 24 h prior to the first appearance of clinical signs of FMD in the donors. Thus, the latent period of infection ended approximately 24 h before the end of the incubation period. There were significant differences between contact-exposed groups in the time elapsed from virus exposure to the first detection of FMDV shedding, viremia, and clinical lesions. Specifically, the onset and progression of clinical FMD were more rapid in pigs that had been exposed to the donor pigs during more advanced phases of disease, suggesting that these animals had received a higher effective challenge dose. These results demonstrate transmission and dissemination of FMD within groups of pigs during the incubation period of infection. Furthermore, these findings suggest that under current conditions, shedding of FMDV in oropharyngeal fluids is a more precise proxy for FMDV infectiousness than clinical signs of infection. These findings may impact modeling of the propagation of FMD outbreaks that initiate in pig holdings and should be considered when designing FMD control strategies.

Parameter Values for Epidemiological Models of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Swine

In the event of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incursion, response strategies are required to control, contain, and eradicate the pathogen as efficiently as possible. Infectious disease simulation models are widely used tools that mimic disease dispersion in a population and that can be useful in the design and support of prevention and mitigation activities. However, there are often gaps in evidence-based research to supply models with quantities that are necessary to accurately reflect the system of interest. The objective of this study was to quantify values associated with the duration of the stages of FMD infection (latent period, subclinical period, incubation period, and duration of infection), probability of transmission (within-herd and between-herd via spatial spread), and diagnosis of a vesicular disease within a herd using a meta-analysis of the peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion. The latent period ranged from 1 to 7 days and incubation period ranged from 1 to 9 days; both were influenced by strain. In contrast, the subclinical period ranged from 0 to 6 days and was influenced by sampling method only. The duration of infection ranged from 1 to 10 days. The probability of spatial spread between an infected and fully susceptible swine farm was estimated as greatest within 5 km of the infected farm, highlighting the importance of possible long-range transmission through the movement of infected animals. Finally, while most swine practitioners are confident in their ability to detect a vesicular disease in an average sized swine herd, a small proportion expect that up to half of the herd would need to show clinical signs before detection via passive surveillance would occur. The results of this study will be useful in within- and between-herd simulation models to develop efficient response strategies in the event an FMD in swine populations of disease-free countries or regions.

The Impact of Population, Contact, and Spatial Heterogeneity on Epidemic Model Predictions

Our objective was to evaluate the effect that complexity in the form of different levels of spatial, population, and contact heterogeneity has in the predictions of a mechanistic epidemic model. A model that simulates the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases between animal populations was developed. Sixteen scenarios of foot-and-mouth disease infection in cattle were analyzed, involving combinations of the following factors: multiple production-types (PT) with heterogeneous contact and population structure versus single PT, random versus actual spatial distribution of population units, high versus low infectivity, and no vaccination versus preemptive vaccination. The epidemic size and duration was larger for scenarios with multiple PT versus single PT. Ignoring the actual unit locations did not affect the epidemic size in scenarios with multiple PT/high infectivity, but resulted in smaller epidemic sizes in scenarios using multiple PT/low infectivity. In conclusion, when modeling fast-spreading epidemics, knowing the actual locations of population units may not be as relevant as collecting information on population and contact heterogeneity. In contrast, both population and spatial heterogeneity might be important to model slower spreading epidemic diseases. Our findings can be used to inform data collection and modeling efforts to inform health policy and planning.

Prediction of province-level outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in Iran using a zero-inflated negative binomial model

To identify events that could predict province-level frequency of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Iran, 5707 outbreaks reported from April 1995 to March 2002 were studied. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to estimate the probability of a 'no-outbreak' status and the number of outbreaks in a province, using the number of previous occurrences of FMD for the same or adjacent provinces and season as covariates. For each province, the probability of observing no outbreak was negatively associated with the number of outbreaks in the same province in the previous month (odds ratio [OR]=0.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.01, 0.30) and in 'the second previous month' (OR=0.10, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.51), the total number of outbreaks in the second previous month in adjacent provinces (OR=0.57, 95% CI: 0.36, 0.91) and the season (winter [OR=0.18, 95% CI: 0.06, 0.55] and spring [OR=0.27, 95% CI: 0.09, 0.81], compared with summer). The expected number of outbreaks in a province was positively associated with number of outbreaks in the same province in previous month (coefficient [coef]=0.74, 95% CI: 0.66, 0.82) and in the second previous month (coef=0.23, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.31), total number of outbreaks in adjacent provinces in the previous month (coef=0.32, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.41) and season (fall [coef=0.20, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.33] and spring [coef=0.18, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.31], compared to summer); however, number of outbreaks was negatively associated with the total number of outbreaks in adjacent provinces in the second previous month (coef=-0.19, 95% CI: -0.28, -0.09). The findings indicate that the probability of an outbreak (and the expected number of outbreaks if any) may be predicted based on previous province information, which could help decision-makers allocate resources more efficiently for province-level disease control measures. Further, the study illustrates use of zero inflated negative binomial model to study diseases occurrence where disease is infrequently observed.

Risk assessment and cost-effectiveness of animal health certification methods for livestock export in Somalia

Livestock export is vital to the Somali economy. To protect Somali livestock exports from costly import bans used to control the international spread of disease, better certification of livestock health status is required. We performed quantitative risk assessment and cost-effectiveness analysis on different health certification protocols for Somali livestock exports for six transboundary diseases.

Examining stock at regional markets alone without port inspection and quarantine was inexpensive but was ineffective for all but contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, contagious caprine pleuropneumonia and peste des petits ruminants. While extended pre-export quarantine improves detection of infections that cause clinical disease, if biosecurity is suboptimal quarantine provides an opportunity for transmission and increased risk. Clinical examination, laboratory screening and vaccination of animals for key diseases before entry to the quarantine station reduced the risk of an exported animal being infected. If vaccination could be reliably performed weeks before arrival at quarantine its effect would be greatly enhanced.

The optimal certification method depends on the disease. Laboratory diagnostic testing was particularly important for detecting infections with limited clinical signs in male animals (only males are exported); for Rift Valley fever (RVF) the probability of detection was 99% or 0% with and without testing.

Based on our findings animal inspection and certification at regional markets combined with quarantine inspection and certification would reduce the risk of exporting infected animals and enhance disease control at the regional level. This is especially so for key priority diseases, that is RVF, foot-and-mouth disease and Brucellosis. Increased data collection and testing should be applied at point of production and export.

Estimation of the Infection Window for the 2010/2011 Korean Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak

Objectives

This study aims to develop a method for calculating infection time lines for disease outbreaks on farms was developed using the 2010/2011 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the Republic of Korea.

Methods

Data on farm demography, the detection date of FMD, the clinical history for the manifestation of lesions, the presence of antibodies against FMD virus (including antibodies against the structural and nonstructural proteins of serotype O), vaccination status (O1 Manisa strain), the number of reactors and information on the slaughter of infected animals were utilized in this method.

Results

Based on estimates of the most likely infection date, a cumulative detection probability that an infected farm would be identified on a specific day was determined. Peak infection was observed between late December and early January, but peak detection occurred in mid-January. The early detection probability was highest for pigs, followed by cattle (dairy, then beef) and small ruminants. Nearly 90% of the infected pig farms were detected by Day 11 post-infection while 13 days were required for detection for both dairy and beef cattle farms, and 21 days were necessary for small ruminant (goat and deer) farms. On average, 8.1 ± 3.1 days passed prior to detecting the presence of FMD virus on a farm. The interval between infection and detection of FMD was inversely associated with the intensity of farming.

Conclusion

The results of our study emphasize the importance of intensive clinical inspection, which is the quickest method of detecting FMD infection and minimizing the damage caused by an epidemic.

Clinical manifestations of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2010/2011 epidemic in the Republic of Korea

We reviewed the clinical signs of the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incidences in the Republic of Korea occurring from November 2010 to April 2011. Profuse salivation, vesiculation, lameness or ataxia, and ulceration were the most commonly observed clinical signs of FMD among the infected animals, irrespective of the species. The clinical signs of FMD manifested more clearly in the dairy cattle and pigs compared to the beef cattle, deer and goats on infected farms. About 54% of the infected dairy farms reported vesicles on the teats as the primary clinical sign, while vesiculation on the nose, including the snout and muzzle, was the major lesion observed in infected beef cattle and pig farms. The teat and feet were the second most frequently vesiculated body parts on infected pigs. Although the average age of the first-to-appear clinical lesion in the animals in the beef and dairy cattle farms subjected to vaccination was higher than that observed in the animals in the farms not subjected to vaccination, a reverse pattern was observed in the pig farms. In this study, the clinical signs of FMD were described on the basis of the subjective observations by the farm workers. The present results highlight the clinical signs expected on specific body parts of different types of susceptible animals, and therefore, they may be useful for generating public awareness, particularly among farm workers, as well as for early detection of future FMD outbreaks.

Epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis for foot-and-mouth disease control strategies: a comprehensive review

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most serious transboundary, contagious viral diseases of cloven-hoofed livestock, because it can spread rapidly with high morbidity rates when introduced into disease-free herds or areas. Epidemiological simulation modeling can be developed to study the hypothetical spread of FMD and to evaluate potential disease control strategies that can be implemented to decrease the impact of an outbreak or to eradicate the virus from an area. Spatial analysis, a study of the distributions of events in space, can be applied to an area to investigate the spread of animal disease. Hypothetical FMD outbreaks can be spatially analyzed to evaluate the effect of the event under different control strategies. The main objective of this paper is to review FMD-related articles on FMD epidemiology, epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis with the focus on disease control. This review will contribute to the development of models used to simulate FMD outbreaks under various control strategies, and to the application of spatial analysis to assess the outcome of FMD spread and its control.

An evaluation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreak reporting in mainland South-East Asia from 2000 to 2010

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is considered to be endemic throughout mainland South-East Asia (SEA). The South-East Asia and China FMD (SEACFMD) campaign is a regional control programme which has been ongoing since 1997. The programme encourages countries to submit reports of outbreaks regularly. This paper evolved from a collaboration with SEACFMD to evaluate 10 years worth of reporting. All publicly available outbreak reports (5237) were extracted from the ASEAN Region Animal Health Information System (ARAHIS) for the period from 2000 to mid 2010. These reports included date, outbreak location (at the province and district level) and serotype (if known) plus information on the outbreak size and affected species. Not all records had complete information on the population at-risk or the number of animals affected. This data was transferred into a spatially enabled database (along with data from other sources) and analysed using R and SaTScan. Outbreak serotype was unknown in 2264 (43%) of reports and some countries had very few laboratory confirmed cases (range <1-86%). Outbreak reports were standardised by number of villages in each province. Outbreak intensity varied however there did not appear to be a consistent pattern, nor was there any seasonal trend in outbreaks. Spatial and spatio-temporal cluster detection methods were applied. These identified significant clusters of disease reports. FMD is endemic across the region but is not uniformly present. ARAHIS reports can be regarded as indicators of disease reporting: there may be reports in which laboratory confirmation has not occurred, and in some cases clinical signs are inconsistent with FMD. This raises questions about the specificity of the data. Advances in decentralised testing techniques offer hope for improved verification of FMD as the cause of disease outbreaks. Advances in molecular typing may provide a substantial leap forward in understanding the circulation of FMD in South East Asia.

Epidemic and economic impacts of delayed detection of foot-and-mouth disease: a case study of a simulated outbreak in California

The epidemic and economic impacts of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spread and control were examined by using epidemic simulation and economic (epinomic) optimization models. The simulated index herd was a ≥2,000 cow dairy located in California. Simulated disease spread was limited to California; however, economic impact was assessed throughout the United States and included international trade effects. Five index case detection delays were examined, which ranged from 7 to 22 days. The simulated median number of infected premises (IP) ranged from approximately 15 to 745, increasing as the detection delay increased from 7 to 22 days. Similarly, the median number of herds under quarantine increased from approximately 680 to 6,200, whereas animals slaughtered went from approximately 8,700 to 260,400 for detection delays of 7-22 days, respectively. The median economic impact of an FMD outbreak in California was estimated to result in national agriculture welfare losses of $2.3-$69.0 billion as detection delay increased from 7 to 22 days, respectively. If assuming a detection delay of 21 days, it was estimated that, for every additional hr of delay, the impact would be an additional approximately 2,000 animals slaughtered and an additional economic loss of $565 million. These findings underline the critical importance that the United States has an effective early detection system in place before an introduction of FMDV if it hopes to avoid dramatic losses to both livestock and the economy.

Consideration of different outbreak conditions in the evaluation of preventive culling and emergency vaccination to control foot and mouth disease epidemics

In recent foot and mouth disease outbreaks, many healthy animals have been culled to prevent disease transmission. Emergency vaccination is discussed as an alternative to culling of unaffected animals. A spatial and temporal Monte-Carlo simulation model was used to compare preventive culling and emergency vaccination. Different outbreaks are described using additional influence factors such as airborne spread, farm density, type of index-case farm and delay until establishment of the control strategies. The fewest farms were infected establishing a combined strategy including a 1 km preventive culling and 1-10 km emergency vaccination zone around each outbreak farm. Taking the number of culled and vaccinated farms into account, vaccination around the first diagnosed farm combined with the baseline strategy (culling of outbreak farms, protection and surveillance zone, contact tracing) is to be preferred. In the present study, emergency vaccination was an effective control strategy especially in densely populated regions.

Parameterization of the duration of infection stages of serotype O foot-and-mouth disease virus: an analytical review and meta-analysis with application to simulation models

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is considered one of the most important infectious diseases of livestock because of the devastating economic consequences that it inflicts in affected regions. The value of critical parameters, such as the duration of the latency or the duration of the infectious periods, which affect the transmission rate of the FMD virus (FMDV), are believed to be influenced by characteristics of the host and the virus. Disease control and surveillance strategies, as well as FMD simulation models, will benefit from improved parameter estimation. The objective of this study was to quantify the distributions of variables associated with the duration of the latency, subclinical, incubation, and infectiousness periods of FMDV transmission. A double independent, systematic review of 19 retrieved publications reporting results from experimental trials, using 295 animals in four reference laboratories, was performed to extract individual values related to FMDV transmission. Probability density functions were fitted to data and a set of regression models were used to identify factors associated with the assessed parameters. Latent, subclinical, incubation, and infectious periods ranged from 3.1 to 4.8, 2 to 2.3, 5.5 to 6.6, and 3.3 to 5.7 days, respectively. Durations were significantly (p < 0.05) associated independently with route of exposure, type of donor, animal species, strains, characteristics of sampling, and clinical signs. These results will contribute to the improvement of disease control and surveillance strategies and stochastic models used to simulate FMD spread and, ultimately, development of cost-effective plans to prevent and control the potential spread of the disease in FMD-free regions of the world.

Potential impact of introduction of foot-and-mouth disease from wild pigs into commercial livestock premises in California

OBJECTIVE

To estimate potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) if introduced from wild pigs in California and to evaluate efficacies of various control strategies.

SAMPLE POPULATION

Data for California livestock and from hunter surveys on wild pigs in California.

PROCEDURES

A spatial, stochastic simulation model was used to simulate FMD epidemics that might occur if a dairy or beef herd were infected from contact with a wild pig. Index herd location and type were examined, in addition to different statewide movement ban (SWMB) durations, to determine their effect on extent of the epidemic.

RESULTS

Duration, number of infected premises, size of simulated outbreak, number of culled animals, and spatial distribution of infected herds resulting from the simulated outbreaks varied considerably among geographic regions, depending on index case type and location. Outbreaks beginning in the southern region of California were consistently longest, whereas those beginning in the northern region were shortest. The largest outbreaks resulted from index cases located in the southern and valley regions, whereas outbreaks were smallest when originating in the Sonoma or northern regions. For all regions, when the index herd was a dairy herd, size and duration of the outbreak were consistently reduced with implementation of an SWMB >or= 3 days.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Introduction of FMDV from wild pigs into a dairy or beef herd could result in a large and rapidly spreading outbreak, potentially affecting large numbers of herds. Size and duration of the outbreak might be reduced with an SWMB; however, the impact is highly dependent on the index herd type and location.

Detection of Foot and Mouth Disease and Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Viral Genes Using Microarray Chip

Two viral pathogens, namely, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) and foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV), were selected as models for multiple pathogen detection in a cDNA microarray. Two signature regions selected from ORF2 (around 500 bp) and ORF5 (around 600 bp) of PRRVS (America serotype), and one signature region from structural genes VP1 (around 500 bp) of FMDV type O were designed and spotted on a nylon membrane. For PCR sensitivity study, the cloned FMDV-VP1 template could be diluted to near one copy and its PCR product was still detectable in gel electrophoresis. In the microarray detection, the labelling FMDV probes (3 mg/ml) could be diluted 320 times and still maintained a visible colour when hybridized with the chip. Using the mixing primers, the microarray chip demonstrated rapid and accurate detection of the specific genes. To our knowledge, this preliminary study is the first example reported applying the long signature sequences to the multiple pathogen detection in cDNA microarray.