Predictors Affecting Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Patients After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft

Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation Prediction by Left Atrial Size in Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting and Five-Year Survival Outcome

Background: Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication in cardiac surgery. Despite its multifactorial origin, the left atrial (LA) size is closely linked to POAF, raising the question of a valid cut-off value and its impact on the long-term outcome. Methods: Patients without a history of AF who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting between 2014 and 2016 were selected for this retrospective study. LA size was preoperatively assessed using the left atrial anterior-posterior diameter (LAAPd). Correlation and logistic regression analyses were performed, following a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to ensure group comparability, followed by a comparison analysis regarding the primary endpoint of POAF and the secondary endpoints of all-cause mortality and stroke during a five-year follow-up. Results: A total of 933 patients were enrolled in the study eventually revealing a significant correlation between LAAPd and POAF (cor = 0.09, p < 0.01). A cut-off point of 38.5 mm was identified, resulting in groups with 366 patients each after PSM. Overall, patients with a dilated LA presented a significantly higher rate of POAF (22.3% vs. 30.4%, p = 0.02). In a five-year follow-up, a slightly higher rate of all-cause mortality (9.8% vs. 13.7%, HR 1.4 [0.92-2.29], p = 0.10) was observed, but there was no difference in the occurrence of strokes (3.6% vs. 3.3%, p = 0.87). Conclusions: An LAAPd of >38.5 mm was found to be an independent predictor of POAF after coronary artery bypass grafting and resulted in a non-significant tendency towards a worse outcome regarding all-cause mortality in a five-year follow-up.

Predictors of Developing Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Graft: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The objective of this study was to determine predictors of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) among coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) patients. This meta-analysis was conducted as per the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA). Two authors performed searches independently using electronic databases, including Embase, PubMed, and Web of Science, from January 1, 2015, to November 30, 2023. A total of 16 studies were included in this meta-analysis. All included studies reported POAF in patients undergoing CABG, resulting in 1462 cases of POAF among 6200 patients undergoing CABG. The cases of POAF varied among studies, ranging from 7.80% to 47.37%. The pooled incidence of POAF was 26% (95% CI: 20% to 31%). The results indicated that older patients had a higher risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF) after CABG (mean difference [MD]): 5.63, 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.08 to 7.17, p-value < 0.001). The findings revealed a significantly lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in patients developing AF than their counterparts (MD: -0.30, 95% CI: -0.58 to -0.03, p-value: 0.03). Regarding the history of myocardial infarction (MI), the odds of MI were significantly higher in patients developing AF compared to those who did not develop AF (odds ratio [OR]: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.12 to 1.68, p-value: 0.002). In relation to intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP), the odds of IABP were significantly higher in patients developing AF compared to those who did not develop AF (OR: 2.27, 95% CI: 1.39 to 3.72, p-value: 0.001). Identified risk factors for post-CABG AF included advanced age, a lower preoperative ejection fraction, a history of myocardial infarction, the requirement for an IABP, and prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time. The study underscores the significance of proactive screening and comprehensive management for elderly CABG patients, particularly those with myocardial infarction histories.

Predicting atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: a scoping review of associated factors and systematic review of existing prediction models

INTRODUCTION

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is common after cardiac surgery and associated with increased hospital length of stay, patient morbidity and mortality. We aimed to identify factors associated with POAF and evaluate the accuracy of available POAF prediction models.

METHODS

We screened articles from Ovid MEDLINE® and PubMed Central® (PMC) and included studies that evaluated risk factors associated with POAF or studies that designed or validated POAF prediction models. We only included studies in cardiac surgical patients with sample size n ⩾ 50 and a POAF outcome group ⩾20. We summarised factors that were associated with POAF and assessed prediction model performance by reviewing reported calibration and discriminative ability.

RESULTS

We reviewed 232 studies. Of these, 142 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Age was frequently found to be associated with POAF, while most other variables showed contradictory findings, or were assessed in few studies. Overall, 15 studies specifically developed and/or validated 12 prediction models. Of these, all showed poor discrimination or absent calibration in predicting POAF in externally validated cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Except for age, reporting of factors associated with POAF is inconsistent and often contradictory. Prediction models have low discrimination, missing calibration statistics, are at risk of bias and show limited clinical applicability. This suggests the need for studies that prospectively collect AF relevant data in large cohorts and then proceed to validate findings in external data sets.

Prediction of Postcoronary Artery Bypass Grafting Atrial Fibrillation: POAFRiskScore Tool

BACKGROUND

 Atrial fibrillation (AF), a condition that might occur after a heart bypass procedure, has caused differing estimates of its occurrence and risk. The current study analyses the possible risk factors of post-coronary artery bypass grafting (post-CABG) AF (postoperative AF [POAF]) and presents a software for preoperative POAF risk prediction.

METHODS

 This retrospective research was performed on 1,667 patients who underwent CABG surgery using the hospital database. The associations between the variables of the patients and AF risk factors after CABG were examined using multivariable logistic regression (LR) after preprocessing the relevant data. The tool was designed to predict POAF risk using Shiny, an R package, to develop a web-based software.

RESULTS

 The overall proportion of post-CABG AF was 12.2%. According to the results of univariate tests, in terms of age (p < 0.001), blood urea nitrogen (p = 0.005), platelet (p < 0.001), triglyceride (p = 0.0026), presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD; p = 0.01), and presence of preoperative carotid artery stenosis (PCAS; p < 0.001), there were statistically significant differences between the POAF and non-POAF groups. Multivariable LR analysis disclosed the independent risk factors associated with POAF: PCAS (odds ratio [OR] = 2.360; p = 0.028), COPD (OR = 2.243; p = 0.015), body mass index (OR = 1.090; p = 0.006), age (OR = 1.054, p < 0.001), and platelet (OR = 0.994, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

 The experimental findings from the current research demonstrate that the suggested tool (POAFRiskScore v.1.0) can help clinicians predict POAF risk development in the preoperative period after validated on large sample(s) that can represent the related population(s). Simultaneously, since the updated versions of the proposed tool will be released periodically based on the increases in data dimensions with continuously added new samples and related factors, more robust predictions may be obtained in the subsequent stages of the current study in statistical and clinical terms.

Dose-response relationship among body mass index, abdominal adiposity and atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing cardiac surgery: a meta-analysis of 35 cohorts

Background

Whether overweight increases the risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is unclear, and whether adiposity independently contributes to POAF has not been comprehensively studied. Thus, we conducted a meta-analysis to clarify the strength and shape of the exposure-effect relationship between adiposity and POAF.

Methods

The PubMed, Cochrane Library, and EMBASE databases were searched for revelant studies (randomized controlled trials (RCTs), cohort studies, and nest-case control studies) reporting data regarding the relationship between adiposity and the risk of POAF.

Results

Thirty-five publications involving 33,271 cases/141,442 patients were included. Analysis of categorical variables showed that obesity (RR: 1.39, 95% CI [1.21–1.61]; P < 0.001), but not being underweight (RR: 1.44, 95% CI [0.90–2.30]; P = 0.13) or being overweight (RR: 1.03, 95% CI [0.95–1.11]; P = 0.48) was associated with an increased risk of POAF. In the exposure-effect analysis (BMI) was 1.09 (95% CI [1.05–1.12]; P < 0.001) for the risk of POAF. There was a significant linear relationship between BMI and POAF (P_nonlinearity = 0.44); the curve was flat and began to rise steeply at a BMI of approximately 30. Notably, BMI levels below 30 (overweight) were not associated with a higher risk of POAF. Additionally, waist obesity or visceral adiposity index was associated with the risk of POAF.

Conclusion

Based on the current evidence, our findings showed that high body mass index or abdominal adiposity was independently associated with an increased risk of POAF, while underweight or overweight might not significantly increase the POAF risk.

Overweight and aging increase the risk of atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery independently of left atrial size and left ventricular ejection fraction

BACKGROUND

Body mass index (BMI), age, left atrium (LA) dimension and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) have been linked to post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to better define the role of these risk factors.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study evaluated 249 patients (without prior atrial dysrhythmia) undergoing cardiac or aortic surgery. Prior to surgery, the following data were collected: age, BMI, LA diameter, LA area, LVEF, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), creatinine and the presence of arterial hypertension (AH) and diabetes. Intraoperative data such as operation time, total clamp time, cardiopulmonary bypass time, and presence of pericardial/pleural effusion were also collected. Only patients without pre- and post-surgery prophylactic anti-arrhythmic therapy were included.

RESULTS

Patients with (N = 127, 51%) and without POAF (N = 122, 49%) were compared. No difference was observed for sex, LA diameter, LA area, LVEF, TSH, diabetes and use of ACE inhibitors or statins prior to intervention. Moreover, no difference was observed in terms of operation time, total clamp time, cardiopulmonary bypass time, and presence of pericardial/pleural effusion. However, patients with POAF were older (70.6 ± 10.7 vs. 60.4 ± 16.4 years, p = 0.001), had higher BMI (26.8 ± 4.5 vs. 24.9 ± 3.6 kg/m2, p = 0.001), higher baseline creatinine (1.06 ± 0.91 vs. 0.88 ± 0.32 mg/dL, p = 0.038) and a higher frequency of arterial hypertension (73.2% vs. 50%, p = 0.001) and Bentall procedure (24.4% vs. 9.8%, p = 0.023). Multivariate analysis showed that the only independent predictors of POAF were age (OR = 1.05, 95%CI 1.02-1.07, p = 0.001) and BMI (OR = 1.11 95%CI 1.03-1.2,p = 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that advanced age and a higher BMI are strong risk factors for POAF in patients without previous AF even in the presence of comparable LA dimensions and LVEF.