Regression to the mean: a potential source of error in clinical pharmacological studies

Challenges and opportunities in designing clinical trials for neuromyelitis optica

Current management of neuromyelitis optica (NMO) is noncurative and only partially effective. Immunosuppressive or immunomodulatory agents are the mainstays of maintenance treatment. Safer, better-tolerated, and proven effective treatments are needed. The perceived rarity of NMO has impeded clinical trials for this disease. However, a diagnostic biomarker and recognition of a wider spectrum of NMO presentations has expanded the patient population from which study candidates might be recruited. Emerging insights into the pathogenesis of NMO have provided rationale for exploring new therapeutic targets. Academic, pharmaceutical, and regulatory communities are increasingly interested in meeting the unmet needs of patients with NMO. Clinical trials powered to yield unambiguous outcomes and designed to facilitate rapid evaluation of an expanding pipeline of experimental agents are needed. NMO-related disability occurs incrementally as a result of attacks; thus, limiting attack frequency and severity are critical treatment goals. Yet, the severity of NMO and perception that currently available agents are effective pose challenges to study design. We propose strategies for NMO clinical trials to evaluate agents targeting recovery from acute attacks and prevention of relapses, the 2 primary goals of NMO treatment. Aligning the interests of all stakeholders is an essential step to this end.

Thiazides diuretics in the treatment of nephrolithiasis: are we using them in an evidence-based fashion?

In the 1980s a change occurred in hydrochlorothiazide prescribing practices for hypertension from high-dose (50 mg/day) to low-dose (12.5-25 mg/day) therapy. However, randomized controlled trials (RCT) for prevention of calcium-containing kidney stones (CCKS) employed only high doses (≥ 50 mg/day). We hypothesized that these practices have resulted in underdosing of hydrochlorothiazide for prevention of CCKS. Patients with a filled prescription for thiazide diuretics that underwent a 24-h urine stone risk factor analysis were eligible. Those with evidence that thiazide was prescribed for CCKS were further analyzed. Of 107 patients, 102 were treated with hydrochlorothiazide, 4 with indapamide, and one with chlorthalidone. Only 35% of hydrochlorothiazide-treated patients received 50 mg/day; a dose previously shown to reduce stone recurrence. Fifty-two percent were prescribed 25 mg and 13% 12.5 mg daily, doses that were not studied in RCT. Evidence-based hydrochlorothiazide use was suboptimal regardless of where the patient received care (Nephrology or Endocrinology clinic). In a small subset of patients (n = 6) with 24-h urinary calcium excretion measured at baseline and after 2 hydrochlorothiazide doses (25 and ≥ 50 mg), there was a trend toward decreased urinary calcium excretion as the dose was increased from 25 to ≥ 50 mg/day (p = 0.051). Low-dose hydrochlorothiazide was often used for prevention of CCKS despite the fact that there is no evidence that it is effective in this setting. This may have resulted from a practice pattern of using lower doses for hypertension therapy or a lack of knowledge of RCT results in treatment of CCKS.

The evidence-based use of thiazide diuretics in hypertension and nephrolithiasis

Thiazide-type diuretics are commonly used in the treatment of hypertension and nephrolithiasis. Evidence from randomized clinical trials needs to be considered in decisions about agent choice and dose. In nephrolithiasis, one of the major limitations of the literature is a paucity of data on the dose-response effect of hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ) on urinary calcium excretion. The best available evidence for prevention of stone recurrence suggests the use of indapamide at 2.5 mg/d, chlorthalidone at 25 to 50 mg daily, or HCTZ 25 mg twice a day or 50 mg daily. In hypertension, chlorthalidone (12.5 to 30 mg daily) may be the best choice when a diuretic is used for initial therapy, with indapamide (1.5 mg daily) being a valuable alternative for older patients. When adding a thiazide to other drug classes, indapamide (2.5 mg daily) has demonstrated value in hypertensive patients who have had a stroke, and HCTZ (12.5 to 25 mg daily) has a safe track record in several patient groups. Although chlorthalidone has not been tested as add-on therapy, the authors believe it is a safe option in such cases.

An overview of economic evaluations for drugs used in rheumatoid arthritis : focus on tumour necrosis factor-alpha antagonists

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, progressive, inflammatory disease that affects approximately 0.5-1% of the adult population. The introduction of new disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) such as leflunomide, anakinra and the tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha antagonists (infliximab, etanercept and adalimumab) have transformed the management of RA. In particular, the last class of agents has generated substantial controversy. Costing between 16,000 US dollars and 20,000 US dollars per patient-year (2001 values), the potential greater efficacy of treatment with TNFalpha antagonists comes at much higher drug costs, making these agents natural candidates for cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs).A MEDLINE search (until 31 January 2004) identified six original CEAs evaluating TNFalpha antagonists in RA. The aim of a CEA is to facilitate the allocation of scarce health resources and to inform policy decisions. However, to enhance the reliability and relevance of these analyses to policy makers, there must be similarity between the methodologies used. Recently, the OMERACT (Outcome Measures in Rheumatoid Arthritis Clinical Trials) group produced a document to define such a reference case; the OMERACT document was used as a foundation to structure comparisons and highlight discrepancies. The methodologies employed in each analysis differed; in particular, disparate time horizons, comparators, quantities of drug and treatment sequences prohibit the comparison of cost effectiveness between studies. Outcomes also differed between the analyses. Most reported health-related quality of life (HR-QOL) in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The QALYs metric was based on preference scores that were typically derived from linear regressions using the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). However, models also used American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria, as well as the disease activity score (DAS). Common to all studies was the lack of data from long-term randomised studies where efficacy and resource consumption in comparison with standard care has been investigated. As such, investigators combined short-term randomised control trial data with that of a long-term observational cohort, and modelled cost effectiveness over an appropriate time horizon. In addition, most analyses lacked rigorous sensitivity analysis to examine the impact of uncertainty in the parameters. Those analyses that examined time horizons of 6 months and 1 year published incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of 34,800 US dollars per ACR 70% response criteria (ACR70) weighted response (duration 6 months, 1999 values) and 96,166 US dollars (duration 1 year, 2002 values). Analyses that modelled costs and health outcomes beyond the first year reported ICER estimates ranging between 26,800 US dollars (patients' lifetime, 1998 values) and 40,308 US dollars (10 years, 2002 values). In terms of HR-QOL, the analyses reported incremental QALYs that ranged from 0.116 (over 19 years) to 1.6 (over 10 years). Discounted costs of therapy ranged from 30,362 US dollars (10 years, 2002 values) to 93,000 US dollars (22 years, 1998 values), and comparator costs ranged from 22,593 US dollars (10 years, 2002 values) to 84,000 US dollars (22 years, 1998 values).

Regression to the mean. A threat to exercise science?

Regression to the mean (RTM) can bias any investigation where the response to treatment is classified relative to initial values for a given variable without the use of an appropriate control group. The phenomenon and resulting errors of interpretation have been recognised by clinicians in a number of disciplines. The causes of RTM include both intra-individual variance and measurement error. The magnitude of RTM can be estimated quite simply, given a knowledge of intra- and inter-individual variance. RTM can be avoided by using a fully controlled experimental design. Difficulties can also be minimised by making duplicate measurements prior to the experimental manipulation, the first measurement serving for classification, and the second (with randomly distributed variance) allowing an assessment of the response to treatment. Less satisfactorily, surrogate measurements (for example, plasma volume for maximal oxygen intake [VO2(max)]) can assess the bias introduced by an initial non-random sorting of study participants. The impact of RTM on the design and interpretation of investigations has as yet received little consideration by exercise scientists and sports physicians. The response to training is often related to initial measurements of a dependent variable such as heart size, ST segmental depression, fitness or level of physical activity. In particular, analyses of this type have been adduced to support the belief that the response to aerobic training is inversely related to an individual's VO2(max). In fact, RTM may account for a major part of this apparent relationship.

Regression to the mean occurs in measuring peak urinary flow

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the anomalous rises in maximum urinary flow rates seen in a prostate-diagnostic clinic.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

The study comprised 1994 men aged 40-79 years registered at five health centres in Central Scotland, participating in a study of the natural history of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), who completed a urodynamic assessment on up to three occasions: in the community, on referral to a prostate-diagnostic clinic and at a one-year follow-up.

RESULTS

Subjects referred to the diagnostic clinic on the basis of maximum flow rate (Qmax < 15 mL/s) and/or urinary symptomatology showed a mean increase in Qmax (P < 0.001) when tested at the clinic and at the one-year follow-up. In health centres which referred men to the clinic with no pre-selection, there were no significant changes in Qmax.

CONCLUSION

Regression to the mean occurs when patients are selected on the basis of a low Qmax. The use of isolated low values of Qmax in the process of diagnosing BPH should be avoided.

Thiazide treatment for calcium urolithiasis in patients with idiopathic hypercalciuria

In a randomised trial based on a parallel design to determine the prophylactic effect of thiazide on stone formation, 210 calcium urolithiasis patients with idiopathic hypercalciuria were allocated either to treatment with trichlormethiazide (4 mg/day) or no treatment with only close follow-up; 35 patients were excluded for various reasons, including voluntary withdrawal. The background of the remaining 175 patients (82 in the thiazide group and 93 in the control group), including age and sex, was similar for both groups. In patients treated with thiazide there was a statistically significant fall in urinary calcium output. Statistical analyses also demonstrated that the stone formation rate in the thiazide group was significantly less than that in the control group. Adverse clinical reactions probably due to the drug were observed in 9 patients. These findings indicate that trichlormethiazide has a prophylactic effect on calcium urolithiasis in patients with idiopathic hypercalciuria.