Does Reassessment Enhance the Prediction of Imminent Criminal Recidivism? Replicating Lloyd et al. (2020) With High-Risk Parolees

Examining Trajectories of Change on the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR)

Dynamic risk scales have largely been evaluated using singular assessment scores, including those obtained at the start of supervision. While this approach includes assessment of dynamic factors, it ignores changes with reassessment, failing to examine whether an instrument is truly dynamic in nature. This is problematic, as proximal risk assessments have consistently outperformed baseline assessments in the prediction of recidivism. In the current study, we examined the dynamic properties of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Reentry (DRAOR) in 4,736 adults on community supervision in Iowa, United States (N = 33,965 assessments). As expected, while clients demonstrated statistically significant changes on the DRAOR domains over time, changes were small in magnitude. We also examined the predictive validity of baseline and proximal DRAOR total and domain scores on criminal recidivism and revocation in a larger sample of 11,421 adults in the same jurisdiction. While DRAOR baseline scores did predict both outcomes, prediction did not improve with proximal scores. This conflicted with expected findings from previous research on the DRAOR in New Zealand. The results of both of these research questions indicate there was an overall lack of change reflected in this sample. Potential issues regarding implementation fidelity are discussed. Additional research is needed to examine the dynamic properties of the DRAOR in Iowa given the importance of reassessment data in community corrections.

Discriminative and predictive validity of risk assessment measures for women incarcerated for serious violent offences in Australia

Despite the growing population of women in Australian prisons, limited research has explored whether commonly used risk assessments - predominantly developed and tested on men - are valid for women. We investigated the discriminative and predictive validity of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version (LSI-R:SV), Level of Service/Risk, Need, Responsivity (LS/RNR), and the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management 20-Version 3 (HCR-20v3) for Victorian women imprisoned for serious violence (N = 79). The LS/RNR was related to any, violent, and non-violent recidivism, and both the LSI-R:SV and the H-Scale of the HCR-20v3 were related to violent recidivism, with the H-Scale demonstrating strong predictive validity for violence. Four LS/RNR needs domains demonstrated discriminative and predictive validity for any and/or violent recidivism (criminal history, family/marital, alcohol/drug problem, antisocial pattern). Findings are locally significant, showing that the LS/RNR and HCR-20v3 H-Scale are useful for the prediction and discrimination of recidivism for Australian women incarcerated for serious violence.

General Criminal Dynamic Risk and Strength Factors Predict Short-Term General Recidivism Outcomes Among People Convicted of Sexual Crime During Community Supervision

There are clinical practice and operational reasons why it may be appropriate to primarily focus on general risk factors when supervising people convicted of sexual crime in the community. General risk domains may be particularly relevant when supervision officers engage in frequent reassessment of acute dynamic risk factors. We tested the ability of a case management tool, the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry, to discriminate community based, short-term general (all outcome) recidivism versus nonrecidivism among people convicted of sexual crime (n = 562). We tested the predictive discrimination validity of each DRAOR item and then subscale scores in univariate and multivariate models (also controlling for general static risk). DRAOR scores were associated with general recidivism outcomes and effect sizes were generally similar or stronger compared to models with people convicted of nonsexual crime (n = 2854). DRAOR Acute scores were consistently and incrementally related to general recidivism outcomes beyond other scores. In practice, case managers should remain aware that people convicted of sexual crime are at risk for nonsexual recidivism outcomes and assess problematic functioning broadly alongside problems in sexual domains. Clinically, interconnection among domains potentially provides multiple avenues for effective intervention.

Psychometric Properties of a Risk Tool Across Indigenous Māori and European Samples in Aotearoa New Zealand: Measurement Invariance, Discrimination, and Calibration for Predicting Criminal Recidivism

Due to recent legal cases highlighting a lack of cross-ethnicity validity research using correctional risk assessment tools, we evaluated psychometric properties of Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) scores across Māori (n = 1,812) and New Zealand (NZ) European samples (n = 1,211) in Aotearoa NZ. Using routine administrative data, our analyses suggested scoring properties were invariant across ethnicity for 15 of 19 items. Discrimination properties were also equivalent, but we observed a higher recidivism base rate among Māori participants, consistent with official statistics. Consequently, calibration analyses using a fixed follow-up (N = 372) demonstrated higher predicted recidivism rates for Māori participants at each DRAOR score. This suggests that Māori participants with similar levels of DRAOR-assessed need factors as NZ European participants experienced relatively greater continued justice contact. DRAOR users should prioritize delivering quality case management to clients, recognizing that both case-specific and systemic factors may underlie differential base rates.