A Nomogram Based on Aspartate Aminotransferase/Alanine Aminotransferase (AST/ALT) Ratio to Predict Prognosis After Surgery in Gastric Cancer Patients

Risk factors for liver dysfunction and their clinical importance after gastric cancer surgery

Postoperative hepatobiliary enzyme abnormalities often present as postoperative liver dysfunction in patients with gastric cancer (GC). This study aimed to identify the risk factors for postoperative liver dysfunction and their clinical impact after GC surgery. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 124 patients with GC who underwent laparoscopic or robotic surgery at Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine between 2017 and 2019. Twenty (16.1%) patients with GC developed postoperative liver dysfunction (Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) version 5.0 ≥ Grade 3). Univariate analyses identified robotic surgery as a risk factor for postoperative liver dysfunction (P = 0.005). There was no correlation between the postoperative liver dysfunction status and postoperative complications or postoperative hospital stays. Patients with postoperative liver dysfunction did not have significantly worse overall survival (P = 0.296) or recurrence-free survival (P = 0.565) than those without postoperative liver dysfunction. Robotic surgery is a risk factor for postoperative liver dysfunction; however, postoperative liver dysfunction does not affect short or long-term outcomes.

Who would be the winner? A prognostic nomogram for predicting the benefit of postoperative radiotherapy ± chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced gastric cancer: TROD-02-01 study

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop a basic, easily applicable nomogram to improve the survival prediction of the patients with stage II/III gastric cancer (GC) and to select the best candidate for postoperative radiotherapy (RT).

METHODS

In this multicentric trial, we retrospectively evaluated the data of 1597 patients with stage II/III GC after curative gastrectomy followed by postoperative RT ± chemotherapy (CT). Patients were divided into a training set (n = 1307) and an external validation set (n = 290). Nomograms were created based on independent predictors identified by Cox regression analysis in the training set. The consistency index (C-index) and the calibration curve were used to evaluate the discriminative ability and accuracy of the nomogram. A nomogram was created based on the predictive model and the identified prognostic factors to predict 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and progression-free survival (PFS).

RESULTS

The multivariate Cox model recognized lymph node (LN) involvement status, lymphatic dissection (LD) width, and metastatic LN ratio as covariates associated with CSS. Depth of invasion, LN involvement status, LD width, metastatic LN ratio, and lymphovascular invasion were the factors associated with PFS. Calibration of the nomogram predicted both CSS and PFS corresponding closely with the actual results. In our validation set, discrimination was good (C-index, 0.76), and the predicted survival was within a 10% margin of ideal nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

In our relatively large cohort, we created and validated both CSS and PFS nomograms that could be useful for underdeveloped or developing countries rather than Korea and Japan, where the D2 gastrectomy is routinely performed. This could serve as a true map for oncologists who must make decisions without an experienced surgeon and a multidisciplinary tumor board.

A New Nomogram for Predicting 30-Day In-Hospital Mortality Rate of Acute Cholangitis Patients in the Intensive Care Unit

Purpose

Acute cholangitis (AC) is a widespread acute inflammatory disease and the main cause of septic shock, which has a high death rate in hospitals. At present, the prediction models for short-term mortality of AC patients are still not ideal. We aimed at developing a new model that could forecast the short-term mortality rate of AC patients.

Methods

Data were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV version 2.0 (MIMIC-IV v2.0). There were a total of 506 cases of AC patients that were included. Patients were given a 7 : 3 split between the training set and the validation set after being randomly assigned to one of the groups. Multivariate logistic regression was used to create an AC patient predictive nomogram for 30-day mortality. The overall efficacy of the model is evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the calibration curve, the net reclassification improvement (NRI), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and a decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Out of 506 patients, 14.0% (71 patients) died. The training cohort had 354 patients, and the validation cohort had 152 patients. GCS, SPO2, albumin, AST/ALT, glucose, potassium, PTT, and peripheral vascular disease were the independent risk factors according to the multivariate analysis results. The newly established nomogram had better prediction performance than other common scoring systems (such as SOFA, OASIS, and SAPS II). For two cohorts, the calibration curve demonstrated coherence between the nomogram and the ideal observation (P  >  0.05). The clinical utility of the nomogram in both sets was revealed by decision curve analysis.

Conclusion

The novel prognostic model was effective in forecasting the 30-day mortality rate for acute cholangitis patients.

Prognostic value and model construction of preoperative inflammatory markers in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Inflammation is considered to be one of the driving factors of cancer, and chronic inflammation plays a crucial role in tumor growth and metastasis. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive value of preoperative inflammatory biomarkers for overall survival (OS) in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC), including preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and aspartate aminotransferase-to-lymphocyte ratio (ALR), a novel inflammatory biomarker.

METHOD

This study included 198 patients with mRCC from a single center from 2006 to 2022. The optimal cut-off levels for the three biomarkers were derived using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Cox univariate and multivariate analyses were used to assess independent prognostic inflammatory biomarkers. Finally, independent prognostic inflammatory biomarkers were incorporated into the prognostic model to establish a nomogram to predict the postoperative survival of patients with mRCC.

RESULT

The area under the ROC curve for NLR, LMR, and ALR, respectively, is 0.71 (CI: 0.635-0.784), 0.68 (CI: 0.604-0.755), and 0.75 (CI: 0.680-0.819). The optimal LMR, NLR, and ALR cut-off levels as evaluated by the ROC curve were 3.836, 3.106, and 68.056, respectively. Patients with NLR and ALR higher than the cut-off level and LMR lower than the cut-off level had a significant relationship with OS. Multivariate analysis revealed that tumor necrosis, lower LMR, and higher ALR were independent risk factors for OS. In addition, a nomogram that includes independent prognostic inflammatory biomarkers can accurately predict the OS in patients with mRCC.

CONCLUSION

ALR and LMR are independent risk factors for the prognosis of individuals with mRCC. By monitoring ALR and LMR postoperatively, the prognosis of patients with mRCC can be better evaluated.

Postoperative liver dysfunction is associated with poor long-term outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Postoperative hepatobiliary enzyme abnormalities often present as postoperative liver dysfunction in patients with colorectal cancer. This study aimed to clarify the risk factors of postoperative liver dysfunction and its prognostic impact following colorectal cancer surgery.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data from 360 consecutive patients who underwent radical resection for Stage I-IV colorectal cancer between 2015 and 2019. A subset of 249 patients with Stage III colorectal cancer were examined to assess the prognostic impact of liver dysfunction.

RESULTS

Forty-eight (13.3%) colorectal cancer patients (Stages I-IV) developed postoperative liver dysfunction (Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 5.0 CTCAE v5.0 ≥ Grade 2). Univariate and multivariate analyses identified the liver-to-spleen ratio on preoperative plain computed tomography (L/S ratio; P = 0.002, Odds ratio 2.66) as an independent risk factor for liver dysfunction. Patients with postoperative liver dysfunction showed significantly poorer disease-free survival than patients without liver dysfunction (P < 0.001). Univariate and multivariate analyses using Cox's proportional hazards model revealed that postoperative liver dysfunction independently was a poor prognostic factor (P = 0.001, Hazard ratio 2.75, 95% CI: 1.54-4.73).

CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative liver dysfunction was associated with poor long-term outcomes in patients with Stage III colorectal cancer. A low liver-to-spleen ratio on preoperative plain computed tomography images was an independent risk factor of postoperative liver dysfunction.

Factors predicting 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy-the impact of elevated aspartate aminotransferase

PURPOSE

High preoperative bilirubin levels and cholangitis are associated with poor peri-operative outcomes following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). However, the impact of deranged preoperative aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels on immediate postoperative outcomes is relatively unexplored. We hypothesized that deranged AST and ALT lead to worse postoperative outcomes after PD. The aim of this study was to assess the factors contributing to postoperative mortality (POM) following PD, and to study the impact of deranged aminotransferases.

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of 562 patients. Risk factors for POM were computed using a multivariate logistic regression model.

RESULTS

The rate of POM was 3.9%. On univariate analysis, the American Society of Anaesthesiologists grades, diabetes mellitus, cardiac comorbidity, preoperative biliary stenting, elevated serum bilirubin, AST, elevated serum creatinine, clinically relevant pancreatic fistula (CRPF), and grade B+C post-pancreatectomy hemorrhage (PPH) were associated with 30-day mortality. On multivariate analysis, preoperative elevated AST was independently predictive of 30-day POM (OR = 6.141, 95%CI 2.060-18.305, p = 0.001). Other factors independently predictive of POM were elevated serum creatinine, preoperative biliary stenting, CRPF and grade B and C PPH. The ratio of AST/ALT > 0.89 was associated with 8 times increased odds of POM.

CONCLUSION

Elevated preoperative AST emerged as a predictor of 30-day POM after PD, with an 8-times increased odds of death with an AST/ALT ratio > 0.89.

A Comprehensive Review of Prognostic Factors in Patients with Gastric Adenocarcinoma

Gastric adenocarcinoma remains associated with a poor long-term survival, despite recent therapeutical advances. In most parts of the world where systematic screening programs do not exist, diagnosis is often made at advanced stages, affecting long-term prognosis. In recent years, there is increasing evidence that a large bundle of factors, ranging from the tumor microenvironment to patient ethnicity and variations in therapeutic strategy, play an important role in patient outcome. A more thorough understanding of these multi-faceted parameters is needed in order to provide a better assessment of long-term prognosis in these patients, which probably also require the refinement of current staging systems. This study aims to review existing knowledge on the clinical, biomolecular and treatment-related parameters that have some prognostic value in patients with gastric adenocarcinoma.

A Prediction Model for Chemotherapy-Induced Thrombocytopenia Based on Real-World Data and a Close Relationship Between AST/ALT Ratio and Platelet Count in Patients with Solid Tumors

OBJECTIVE

Chemotherapy-induced thrombocytopenia (CIT) can lead to chemotherapy dose delay or reduction, and even serious bleeding. This study aimed to develop a CIT-predicting model based on the laboratory indices of cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

From Jun 1, 2017 to Dec 30, 2021, a total of 2043 patients who had received 7676 cycles of chemotherapy were retrospectively enrolled. A logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictive factors, on the basis of which a nomogram model for predicting CIT was established. A bootstrapping technique was applied for internal validation. A generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) was constructed to analyze the trends in the changes of aspartate aminotransferase (AST), ratio of AST to alanine transaminase (ALT) (AST/ALT ratio), and platelet (PLT) count in patients with solid tumors. P values ≤0.05 were considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

The patient-based incidence of CIT was 20.51% and the cycle-based incidence was 10.01%. The multivariate analysis showed that AST level, AST/ALT ratio, and total bilirubin (Tbil), white blood cell (WBC), platelet (PLT), hemoglobin (Hb) levels were significantly associated with the risk of CIT. The GAMM analysis showed that PLT level was inversely associated with AST/ALT ratio and AST level, more significantly with AST/ALT ratio. And both exhibited statistically predictive abilities for CIT. The model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.793, a sensitivity of 0.543 and a specificity of 0.930.

CONCLUSION

The AST/ALT ratio was inversely associated with the CIT risk in cancer patients. The GAMM model based on laboratory indices presented a high accuracy in predicting the risk of CIT, and a potential to be translated into clinical management.

Establishment and validation of a novel prognostic model for non-virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Objective

The incidence of non-virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma (NV-HCC) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is steadily increasing. The aim of this study was to establish a prognostic model to evaluate the overall survival (OS) of NV-HCC patients.

Methods

Overall, 261 patients with NV-HCC were enrolled in this study. A prognostic model was developed by using LASSO-Cox regression analysis. The prognostic power was appraised by the concordance index (C-index), and the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (TD-ROC). Kaplan–Meier (K–M) survival analysis was used to evaluate the predictive ability in the respective subgroups stratified by the prognostic model risk score. A nomogram for survival prediction was established by integrating the prognostic model, TNM stage, and treatment.

Results

According to the LASSO-Cox regression results, the number of nodules, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (SLR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were included for prognostic model construction. The C-index of the prognostic model was 0.759 (95% CI 0.723–0.797) in the development cohort and 0.796 (95% CI 0.737–0.855) in the validation cohort, and its predictive ability was better than TNM stage and treatment. The TD-ROC showed similar results. K–M survival analysis showed that NV-HCC patients with low risk scores had a better prognosis (P < 0.05). A nomogram based on the prognostic model, TNM stage, and treatment was constructed with sufficient discriminatory power with C-indexes of 0.78 and 0.85 in the development and validation cohort, respectively.

Conclusion

For NV-HCC, this prognostic model could predict an OS benefit for patients, which may assist clinicians in designing individualized therapeutic strategies.

Postoperative Alanine Aminotransferase Levels Are Associated with Outcomes in Pediatric Patients Undergoing Total Cavopulmonary Connection

Background: This single-center, retrospective study aims to determine the association between alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and outcomes in pediatric patients undergoing total cavopulmonary connection (TCPC). Methods: In total, 256 pediatric patients undergoing TCPC were included and divided into a normal-ALT group and a high-ALT group. Clinical data were collected for comparisons between groups, and risk factors of high postoperative ALT were identified by univariate and multivariate analysis. A ROC analysis of the predictive value of postoperative ALT was conducted. Results: Compared to the normal-ALT group, the members of the high-ALT group were 1.6 years older and had significantly higher preoperative creatinine and direct bilirubin levels. The high-ALT group had increased fluid overload, higher vasoactive inotropic drug scores, and inferior central venous pressure. The short-term outcomes in the high-ALT group were markedly worse: they suffered a longer duration of mechanical ventilation (MV), had a higher ICU and hospital length of stay (LOS), and higher rates of mortality, infection, and reintubation. Prolonged ICU and hospital LOS, longer MV, and reintubation were identified as independent risk factors for high postoperative ALT. Postoperative ALT was of high value in predicting reintubation, MV, ICU LOS, and mortality. Conclusions: Elevated postoperative ALT levels are associated with poor short-term outcomes in pediatric patients undergoing TCPC.

Incorporation of liver chemistry score in predicting survival of liver-involved advanced gastric cancer patients who received palliative chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer liver metastasis (GCLM) patients usually accompany by abnormal serum liver function tests (LFTs) more or less; however, the prognostic value of LFTs is not fully understood. This study aimed to develop a liver chemistry score (LCS) based on LFTs and incorporate it into prognosis determination for GCLM patients who received palliative chemotherapy.

METHODS

Data were derived from hospitalized GCLM patients in two general hospitals in China. LCS was generated based on the results of LFTs by LASSO regression. Cutoff value of the score was determined by restricted cubic spline. The score was then incorporated into Cox regression analysis to construct a predictive nomogram; the model was then evaluated internally and externally by AUC of time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) and calibration curves.

RESULTS

Three hundred and thirty-six and 72 patients were included in development and validation cohort, respectively. LASSO regression analysis in development cohort finally reached a two-parametric LCS calculated on AST and ALP levels as 0.03343515 × ln (AST, U/L) + 0.02687997 × ln (ALP, U/L), and 0.232 was set as optimal cutoff value. Patients in low (LCS < 0.232) or high (LCS ≥ 0.232) score group experienced different survival times; median OS was 13.54 (95% CI: 11.1-15.6) months in the low LCS group and 7.3 (6.6-9.3) months in the high LCS group (p < 0.001). A nomogram including LCS and other clinical parameters was constructed and showed superior performance than model not including LCS. AUC of 6-month ROC improved from 0.647 (95% CI: 0.584-0.711) to 0.699 (0.638-0.759) in internal validation, and 0.837 (0.734-0.940) to 0.875 (0.784-0.966) in external validation.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver chemistry score is useful in determining the prognosis of gastric cancer patients with liver metastasis and may be helpful to clinicians in decision-making.

The AST/ALT Ratio (De Ritis Ratio) Represents an Unfavorable Prognosis in Patients in Early-Stage SFTS: An Observational Cohort Study

Background

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), a widely prevalent infectious disease caused by severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV) that carries with it a high mortality rate, has emerged to be a public health concern. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients infected with SFTSV, seeking novel prognostic risk factors for SFTS.

Methods

In this retrospective and cross-sectional study, confirmed SFTS patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University were enrolled from September 1, 2019, to December 12, 2020. Cases were analyzed for epidemiological, demographic, clinical, and laboratory data. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association between predictors and outcome variables. A generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) was conducted to analyze the trending shift of aspartate aminotransferase/alanine transaminase-ratio (AST/ALT-ratio) and platelet (PLT) in SFTS patients treated with ribavirin. p values ≤ 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

Results

Clinical and laboratory results of 107 hospitalized patients with SFTSV infection were retrospectively described. The mean age at onset of disease was 60.38 ± 11.29 years old and the ratio between male and female was 1:1.2. Fever and thrombocytopenia are hallmark features of SFTS. Furthermore, multiple cases also experienced neurological complications, gastrointestinal/skeletal muscle symptoms together with other non-specific clinical manifestations; laboratory dataset outcomes reported dysregulated levels for routine blood biomarkers, coagulation function, and biochemistry. Overall, 107 patients were segregated into two groups according to patient condition at the clinical endpoint (survivors/non-survivors). SFTS survivors had a higher level of PLT- counts, total protein (TP), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), while levels of activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), thrombin time (TT), D-dimer (D-D), fibrinogen degradation products (FDP), ALT, AST, AST/ALT-ratio, creatinine (Cr), creatine phosphokinase (CK) and procalcitonin (PCT) was higher in non-survivors. Results from univariate Cox regression revealed that elevated levels of FDP, TT, AST/ALT-ratio, PCT, as well as decreased eGFR level and presence of central nervous system symptoms (CNS), were significant predictors for SFTS prognostic, results from multivariate logistic regression analysis in three adjusted models showed AST/ALT-ratio and PCT were independent risk factors for the prognosis of SFTS patients. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis showed that SFTS patients with AST/ALT-ratio >2.683 were associated with a shorter futime (means survival time), therefore indicating an unfavorable prognosis. Treatment with ribavirin could increase PLT count while decreasing AST/ALT-ratio within SFTS patients.

Conclusion

SFTS is an emerging infectious disease, possibly leading to multiple-organ injury; AST/ALT-ratio was an independent risk factor for the prognosis of SFTS patients. Further investigation should be performed in order to gain more knowledge on this disease and guide clinical management.

A Prognostic Nomogram and Heat Map to Predict Survival in Stage II/III Gastric Cancer Patients After Curative Gastrectomy Followed by Adjuvant Chemotherapy

Purpose

This study aimed to study the prognostic value of clinicopathological data, inflammation and nutritional indicators, and to design an effective prognostic nomogram and heat map to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of stage II/III GC patients who underwent curative gastrectomy with adjuvant chemotherapy.

Patients and Methods

We retrospectively analyzed the data of 611 patients with stage II/III GC after curative gastrectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy from 3 GC disease centers. Patients were divided into a training cohort (n = 503) and an external validation cohort (n = 108). Nomograms were established based on independent predictors identified by Cox regression analysis in the training cohort. The consistency index (C-index) and the calibration curve were used to evaluate the discriminative ability and accuracy of the nomogram. Heat maps were constructed with the prognostic factors and the corresponding survival probability. We further divided the patients into low-risk and high-risk groups based on the risk score of the nomogram.

Results

Through univariate and multivariate survival analysis, the independent risk factors common to CSS and DFS were identified. Then these predictors were incorporated into the nomograms, and the established nomograms used to predict CSS and DFS had high discriminative power in the training cohort. Meanwhile, the calibration curves of CSS and DFS probability also showed good agreement between the prediction based on the nomograms and the actual observation results. The above independent predictors were applied to establish heat maps. Compared with low-risk patients, the high-risk patients calculated according to the nomogram had a shorter survival time and a worse prognosis.

Conclusion

We established a nomogram and heat map, which could be used to assess the survival rate of stage II/III GC patients who underwent curative gastrectomy with adjuvant chemotherapy. These tools had high prognostic prediction accuracy and provided inspiration for clinical decision-making.