Derivation and External Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Pulmonary Embolism in Patients With Lung Cancer: A Large Retrospective Cohort Study

Models for predicting venous thromboembolism in ambulatory patients with lung cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

The incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with lung cancer is relatively high, and risk stratification models are vital for the targeted application of thromboprophylaxis. We aimed to review VTE risk prediction models that have been developed in patients with lung cancer and evaluated their performance.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Twenty-four eligible studies involving 123,493 patients were included. The pooled incidence of VTE within 12 months was 11 % (95 % CI 8 %-14 %). With the identified four VTE risk assessment tools, meta-analyses did not show a significant discriminatory capability of stratifying VTE risk for Khorana, PROTECHT and CONKO scores. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the Khorana score were 24 % (95 % CI 11 %-44 %) and 84 % (95 % CI 73 %-91 %) at the 3-point cut-off, and 43 % (95 % CI 35 %-52 %) and 61 % (95 % CI 52 %-69 %) at the 2-point cut-off. However, a COMPASS-CAT score of ≥ 7 points indicated a significantly high VTE risk, with a RR of 4.68 (95 % CI 1.05-20.80).

CONCLUSIONS

The Khorana score lacked discriminatory capability in identifying patients with lung cancer at high VTE risk, regardless of the cut-off value. The COMPASS-CAT score had better performance, but further validation is needed. The results indicate the need for robust VTE risk assessment tools specifically designed and validated for lung cancer patients. Future research should include relevant biomarkers as important predictors and consider the combined use of risk tools. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021245907.

A novel prognostic prediction indicator in patients with acute pulmonary embolism: Naples prognostic score

Acute pulmonary embolism (APE) is a potentially fatal disease. Early risk stratification is essential to determining appropriate treatment. We aimed to investigate the predictive value of the Naples Prognostic Score (NPS) for 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with APE. In this retrospective analysis, 325 hospitalized patients with APE were divided into Groups 0 (n = 131), 1 (n = 153), and 2 (n = 41) according to the NPS. The primary outcome event was all-cause mortality during 30 days of follow-up from the day of admission. The correlation between NPS, clinical features, and outcomes in each group was evaluated. The patients were divided into two groups, survivor (n = 294) and nonsurvivor (n = 31), according to their prognosis. The results of the comparison between the three NPS groups revealed that patients with older age, faster heart rate, lower systolic blood pressure, low albumin and total cholesterol levels, high neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), low lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), right heart dilatation, heart failure, malignancy, and lower extremity venous thrombosis had significantly higher 30-day all-cause mortality (P < 0.05). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for NPS to predict all-cause death within 30 days in patients with APE was 0.780 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.678-0.855), with sensitivity being 80.6% (95% CI = 0.667-0.946) and specificity being 72.1% (95% CI = 0.670-0.772). Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves showed that Group 2 APE patients had the highest risk of all-cause mortality compared with the other two groups (log-rank test, P = 0.0004). Forest plot visualization using the Cox proportional hazard model showed a significant increase in the risk of 30-day all-cause mortality by 239% (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.385 [1.115-10.273], P = 0.031) and 338% (HR = 4.377 [1.228-15.598], P = 0.023), and the trend test showed a statistical difference (P = 0.042). The study concluded that NPS is a novel, reliable, and multidimensional prognostic scoring system with good prediction of 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with APE.