Accuracy of predicting the vancomycin concentration in Japanese cancer patients by the Sawchuk-Zaske method or Bayesian method

Toward Model-Based Informed Precision Dosing of Vancomycin in Hematologic Cancer Patients: A First Step

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

There is no consensus on the optimal vancomycin dose to achieve pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) target in patients with hematologic cancer or in hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) recipients. A 24-h area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) >400 mg*h/L must be achieved early for successful treatment of severe methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections. Current nomograms derived from general population data are not sufficiently accurate to allow AUC-based model-informed precision dosing. The objective of this study was to characterize vancomycin PK in patients with hematologic cancer or in HSCT recipients and to develop a model-informed dosing tool based on PK/PD target requirements.

METHODS

Pooled retrospective and prospective vancomycin serum concentrations were analyzed using NONMEM® to evaluate the performance of previously published population PK (popPK) models built from hematologic cancer datasets and to develop a novel Bayesian PK model. Patients' characteristics and clinical data were tested as potential covariates. The popPK model was validated internally and externally. Predictions of vancomycin concentrations for different dosing regimens were made using Monte-Carlo simulations, and a nomogram strategy was proposed according to selected probability of target attainment (PTA).

RESULTS

The predictive performance of the published popPK models was found to be suboptimal for our population. A novel popPK model was developed using 240 vancomycin concentrations (60 patients). A two-compartment structural model with an additive error model best described the data. Ideal body weight and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) [Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI)] were selected as covariates for volume of distribution (V) and clearance (CL). Bootstrapping confirmed the stability and precision of the popPK parameters. The volume of distribution was V1 = 46.8 L and V2 = 56.1 L, while CL = 5.63 L/h. External validation using 107 vancomycin concentrations (24 patients) demonstrated the predictivity of the model. A nomogram was developed to reach minimally PTA >50% for 400 < AUC < 600 mg*h/L.

CONCLUSION

To our knowledge, this study provides the first model-informed AUC-based strategy in North American hematologic cancer patients with or without HSCT. The resulting nomogram generated provides a simplified approach to improving the accuracy of initial vancomycin dosing in this population.

Bayesian estimation of pharmacokinetic parameters: an important component to include in the teaching of clinical pharmacokinetics and therapeutic drug monitoring

Bayesian estimation of pharmacokinetic parameters (PKP), as discussed in this review, provides a powerful approach towards the individualization of dosing regimens. The method was first described by Lewis Sheiner and colleagues and it is well suited in clinical environs where few blood fluid measures of drugs are available in the clinic. This makes it a valuable tool in the effective implementation of therapeutic drug monitoring. The principle behind the method is Bayes theorem, which incorporates elements of variability in a priori-known population estimates and variability in the pharmacokinetic parameters, and known errors intrinsic to the assay method used to estimate the blood fluid drug concentrations. This manuscript reviews the Bayesian method. The literature was scanned using Pubmed to provide background into the Bayesian method. An Add-in for Excel program was used to show the ability of the method to estimate PKP using sparse blood fluid concentration vs time data. Using a computer program, the method was able to find reasonable estimates of individual pharmacokinetic parameters, assessed by comparing the estimated data to the true PKP. Education of students in clinical pharmacokinetics is incomplete without some mention and instruction of the Bayesian forecasting method. For a complete understanding, a computer program is needed to demonstrate its utility.