Testing the Static-99R as a Global Screen for Risk of Sex Crime Recidivism in a Norwegian Routine Sample

Explaining the Unexplainable: Balancing Responsibility, Expectations, and Identity in Narratives of Sexual Recidivism

When someone is caught and punished for a sexual offense, recidivism prevention is of high priority. While a growing body of qualitative research has investigated the desistance process of those who have sexually offended, few studies have examined the narratives of individuals who have sexually recidivated in order to understand how they make sense of their reoffending. This study aims to fill this gap in the literature by exploring the recidivism process and broader life stories of 16 imprisoned men through semi-structured interviews. The results demonstrate how these men explain their recent "failures," the obstacles they face when doing so, and how they attempt to overcome these obstacles in their narratives. Thus, the analysis in this study is both thematic and narrative. Finally, the findings' practical implications are discussed to show how ambiguity in narratives can be a powerful tool in correctional and clinical interventions.

Machine Learning and Risk Assessment: Random Forest Does Not Outperform Logistic Regression in the Prediction of Sexual Recidivism

Although many studies supported the use of actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) because they outperformed unstructured judgments, it remains an ongoing challenge to seek potentials for improvement of their predictive performance. Machine learning (ML) algorithms, like random forests, are able to detect patterns in data useful for prediction purposes without explicitly programming them (e.g., by considering nonlinear effects between risk factors and the criterion). Therefore, the current study aims to compare conventional logistic regression analyses with the random forest algorithm on a sample of N = 511 adult male individuals convicted of sexual offenses. Data were collected at the Federal Evaluation Center for Violent and Sexual Offenders in Austria within a prospective-longitudinal research design and participants were followed-up for an average of M = 8.2 years. The Static-99, containing static risk factors, and the Stable-2007, containing stable dynamic risk factors, were included as predictors. The results demonstrated no superior predictive performance of the random forest compared with logistic regression; furthermore, methods of interpretable ML did not point to any robust nonlinear effects. Altogether, results supported the statistical use of logistic regression for the development and clinical application of ARAIs.

Reentry in Practice: Sexual Offending, Self-Narratives, and the Implications of Stigma in Norway

Reentering society after serving a prison sentence involves many challenges and particularly so for one of the most stigmatized groups in modern society: people who have sexually offended. While most research on their reentry has been conducted in countries with Sex Offender Registration and Notification (SORN) laws, this study used Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA) to qualitatively investigate the accounts and experiences of men released from prison after serving a sex offense conviction in Norway (n = 8). Results showed that despite less restrictive policies and a total absence of SORN laws, the social stigma linked to being convicted of such crimes severely affected the men. To some degree, they all experienced feelings of stress or anxiousness and they withdrew and isolated more. Their narratives highlight a need for increased social support and recognition from others in the reentry process. Subjective and societal consequences as well as practical implications are discussed.

Outcome Evaluation of a Treatment Program for Men with Paraphilic Disorders Convicted of Sexual Offenses: 10-Year Community Follow-up

Evidence concerning specific paraphilia treatment effectiveness is limited. We present observation data of 127 men convicted of paraphilic sexual offenses who attended inpatient and outpatient follow-up treatment in Czechia. We collected participants' sociodemographic and treatment-related information, including STATIC-99R scores, and used proportional hazards models to analyze variables' effect on recidivism risk. Within the observation period, the general recidivism and sexual recidivism rates were 33.1% and 16.5%, respectively, and the sexual contact recidivism rate was 4.7%. The total STATIC-99 score for those who re-offended was 5.65 (SD = 2.11) and for those who did not was 3.98 (SD = 2.02). Recidivism risk was 7.52 times higher for those diagnosed with exhibitionism than with pedophilia, sadomasochism, or antisocial personality disorder. General recidivism is comparable to others' findings. We attribute the lower sexual contact recidivism rate to the combined effects of psychological and pharmacological treatment, and higher numbers of non-contact offenses to limited antidepressant use.