Retinal layer thinning as a biomarker of long-term disability progression in multiple sclerosis

Evolution of retinal degeneration and prediction of disease activity in relapsing and progressive multiple sclerosis

Retinal optical coherence tomography has been identified as biomarker for disease progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), while the dynamics of retinal atrophy in progressive MS are less clear. We investigated retinal layer thickness changes in RRMS, primary and secondary progressive MS (PPMS, SPMS), and their prognostic value for disease activity. Here, we analyzed 2651 OCT measurements of 195 RRMS, 87 SPMS, 125 PPMS patients, and 98 controls from five German MS centers after quality control. Peripapillary and macular retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL, mRNFL) thickness predicted future relapses in all MS and RRMS patients while mRNFL and ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) thickness predicted future MRI activity in RRMS (mRNFL, GCIPL) and PPMS (GCIPL). mRNFL thickness predicted future disability progression in PPMS. However, thickness change rates were subject to considerable amounts of measurement variability. In conclusion, retinal degeneration, most pronounced of pRNFL and GCIPL, occurs in all subtypes. Using the current state of technology, longitudinal assessments of retinal thickness may not be suitable on a single patient level.

Predictive value of retinal atrophy for cognitive decline across disease duration in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

We investigated the association between changes in retinal thickness and cognition in people with MS (PwMS), exploring the predictive value of optical coherence tomography (OCT) markers of neuroaxonal damage for global cognitive decline at different periods of disease.

METHOD

We quantified the peripapillary retinal nerve fibre (pRFNL) and ganglion cell-inner plexiform (GCIPL) layers thicknesses of 207 PwMS and performed neuropsychological evaluations. The cohort was divided based on disease duration (≤5 years or >5 years). We studied associations between changes in OCT and cognition over time, and assessed the risk of cognitive decline of a pRFNL≤88 µm or GCIPL≤77 µm and its predictive value.

RESULTS

Changes in pRFNL and GCIPL thickness over 3.2 years were associated with evolution of cognitive scores, in the entire cohort and in patients with more than 5 years of disease (p<0.01). Changes in cognition were related to less use of disease-modifying drugs, but not OCT metrics in PwMS within 5 years of onset. A pRFNL≤88 µm was associated with earlier cognitive disability (3.7 vs 9.9 years) and higher risk of cognitive deterioration (HR=1.64, p=0.022). A GCIPL≤77 µm was not associated with a higher risk of cognitive decline, but a trend was observed at ≤91.5 µm in PwMS with longer disease (HR=1.81, p=0.061).

CONCLUSIONS

The progressive retinal thinning is related to cognitive decline, indicating that cognitive dysfunction is a late manifestation of accumulated neuroaxonal damage. Quantifying the pRFNL aids in identifying individuals at risk of cognitive dysfunction.

Development of a predictive model for predicting disability after optic neuritis: a secondary analysis of the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial

Objective

The present study aimed to develop a prediction model for predicting developing debilities after optic neuritis.

Methods

The data for this research was obtained from the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial (ONTT). The predictive model was built based on a Cox proportional hazards regression model. Model performance was assessed using Harrell's C-index for discrimination, calibration plots for calibration, and stratification of patients into low-risk and high-risk groups for utility evaluation.

Results

A total of 416 patients participated. Among them, 101 patients (24.3%) experienced disability, which was defined as achieving or surpassing a score of 3 on the expanded disability status scale. The median follow-up duration was 15.5 years (interquartile range, 7.0 to 16.8). Two predictors in the final predictive model included the classification of multiple sclerosis at baseline and the condition of the optic disk in the affected eye at baseline. Upon incorporating these two factors into the model, the model's C-index stood at 0.71 (95% CI, 0.66-0.76, with an optimism of 0.005) with a favorable alignment with the calibration curve. By utilizing this model, the ONTT cohort can be categorized into two risk categories, each having distinct rates of disability development within a 15-year timeframe (high-risk group, 41% [95% CI, 31-49%] and low-risk group, 13% [95% CI, 8.4-17%]; log-rank p-value of <0.001).

Conclusion

This predictive model has the potential to assist physicians in identifying individuals at a heightened risk of experiencing disability following optic neuritis, enabling timely intervention and treatment.

Recent Progress in the Identification of Early Transition Biomarkers from Relapsing-Remitting to Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

Despite extensive research into the pathophysiology of multiple sclerosis (MS) and recent developments in potent disease-modifying therapies (DMTs), two-thirds of relapsing-remitting MS patients transition to progressive MS (PMS). The main pathogenic mechanism in PMS is represented not by inflammation but by neurodegeneration, which leads to irreversible neurological disability. For this reason, this transition represents a critical factor for the long-term prognosis. Currently, the diagnosis of PMS can only be established retrospectively based on the progressive worsening of the disability over a period of at least 6 months. In some cases, the diagnosis of PMS is delayed for up to 3 years. With the approval of highly effective DMTs, some with proven effects on neurodegeneration, there is an urgent need for reliable biomarkers to identify this transition phase early and to select patients at a high risk of conversion to PMS. The purpose of this review is to discuss the progress made in the last decade in an attempt to find such a biomarker in the molecular field (serum and cerebrospinal fluid) between the magnetic resonance imaging parameters and optical coherence tomography measures.

Baseline retinal nerve fiber layer thickness as a predictor of multiple sclerosis progression: New insights from the FREEDOMS II study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The aim was to evaluate the potential of retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (RNFLT) measured with optical coherence tomography in predicting disease progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS).

METHODS

Analyses were conducted post hoc of this 24-month, phase III, double-blind study, in which RRMS patients were randomized (1:1:1) to once daily oral fingolimod 0.5 mg, 1.25 mg or placebo. The key outcomes were the association between baseline RNFLT and baseline clinical characteristics and clinical/imaging outcomes up to 24 months. Change of RNFLT with fingolimod versus placebo within 24 months and time to retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thinning were evaluated.

RESULTS

Altogether 885 patients were included. At baseline, lower RNFLT was correlated with higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score (r = -1.085, p = 0.018), lower brain volume (r = 0.025, p = 0.006) and deep gray matter volume (r = 0.731, p < 0.0001), worse visual acuity (r = -19.846, p < 0.0001) and longer duration since diagnosis (r = -0.258, p = 0.018). At month 12, low baseline RNFLT (<86 μm) versus high baseline RNFLT (≥99 μm) was associated with a greater brain volume loss (percentage change -0.605% vs. -0.315%, p = 0.035) in patients without optic neuritis history. At month 24, low baseline RNFLT versus high baseline RNFLT was associated with a higher number of new or newly enlarged T2 lesions (mean number 4.0 vs. 2.8, p = 0.014) and a higher risk of subsequent RNFL thinning (hazard ratio 2.55; 95% confidence interval 1.84-3.53; p < 0.001). The atrophy of the RNFL in the inferior quadrant was alleviated with fingolimod 0.5 mg versus placebo at month 24 (Δ(least squares mean) = 1.8, p = 0.047).

CONCLUSION

Retinal nerve fiber layer thickness could predict disease progression in RRMS.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT00355134, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00355134.

Association of the retinal vasculature, intrathecal immunity, and disability in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Optical coherence tomography angiography (OCT-A) is a novel technique allowing non-invasive assessment of the retinal vasculature. During relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), retinal vessel loss occurs in eyes suffering from acute optic neuritis and recent data suggest that retinal vessel loss might also be evident in non-affected eyes. We investigated whether alterations of the retinal vasculature are linked to the intrathecal immunity and whether they allow prognostication of the future disease course.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This study includes two different patient cohorts recruited at a tertiary German academic multiple sclerosis center between 2018 and 2020 and a cohort of 40 healthy controls. A total of 90 patients with RRMS undergoing lumbar puncture and OCT-A analysis were enrolled into a cross-sectional cohort study to search for associations between the retinal vasculature and the intrathecal immune compartment. We recruited another 86 RRMS patients into a prospective observational cohort study who underwent clinical examination, OCT-A and cerebral magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and during annual follow-up visits to clarify whether alterations of the retinal vessels are linked to RRMS disease activity. Eyes with a history of optic neuritis were excluded from the analysis.

RESULTS

Rarefication of the superficial vascular complex occured during RRMS and was linked to higher frequencies of activated B cells and higher levels of the pro-inflammatory cytokines interferon-γ, tumor necrosis factor α and interleukin-17 in the cerebrospinal fluid. During a median follow-up of 23 (interquartile range 14 - 25) months, vessel loss within the superficial (hazard ratio [HR] 1.6 for a 1%-point decrease in vessel density, p=0.01) and deep vascular complex (HR 1.6 for a 1%-point decrease, p=0.05) was associated with future disability worsening.

DISCUSSION

Optic neuritis independent rarefication of the retinal vasculature might be linked to neuroinflammatory processes during RRMS and might predict a worse disease course. Thus, OCT-A might be a novel biomarker to monitor disease activity and predict future disability.