Economic crisis, unemployment and public health

Forecasting the Romanian Unemployment Rate in Time of Health Crisis-A Univariate vs. Multivariate Time Series Approach

Economic crises cause significant shortages in disposable income and a sharp decline in the living conditions, affecting healthcare sector, hitting the profitability and sustainability of companies leading to raises in unemployment. At micro level, these sharp decreases in earnings associated with unemployment and furthermore with the lack of social protection will impact the quality of life and finally the health of individuals. In time of crisis, it becomes vital to support not only the critical sectors of the economy, the assets, technology, and infrastructure, but to protect jobs and workers. This health crisis has hit hard the jobs dynamics through unemployment and underemployment, the quality of work (through wages, or access to social protection), and through the effects on specific groups, with a higher degree of vulnerability to unfavorable labor market outcomes. In this context, providing forecasts as recent as possible for the unemployment rate, a core indicator of the Romanian labor market that could include the effects of the market shocks it becomes fundamental. Thus, the paper aims to offer valuable forecasts for the Romanian unemployment rate using univariate vs. multivariate time series models for the period 2021-2022, highlighting the main patterns of evolution. Based on the univariate time series models, the paper predict the future values of unemployment rate based on its own past using self-forecasting and implementing ARFIMA and SETAR models using monthly data for the period January 2000-April 2021. From the perspective of multivariate time series models, the paper uses VAR/VECM models, analyzing the temporal interdependencies between variables using quarterly data for the period 2000Q1-2020Q4. The empirical results pointed out that both SETAR and VECM provide very similar results in terms of accuracy replicating very well the pre-pandemic period, 2018Q2-2020Q1, reaching the value of 4.1% at the beginning of 2020, with a decreasing trend reaching the value of 3.9%, respectively, 3.6% at the end of 2022.

Does contextual unemployment matter for health status across the life course? A longitudinal multilevel study exploring the link between neighbourhood unemployment and functional somatic symptoms

This study examines whether neighbourhood unemployment is related to functional somatic symptoms, independently of the individual employment, across the life course and at four specific life course periods (age 16, 21, 30 and 42). Self-reported questioner data was used from a 26-year prospective Swedish cohort (n=1010) with complementary neighbourhood register data. A longitudinal and a set of age-specific cross-sectional hierarchal linear regressions was carried out. The results suggest that living in a neighbourhood with high unemployment has implications for residents' level of functional somatic symptoms, regardless of their own unemployment across time, particularly at age 30.

The impact of economic recession on the association between youth unemployment and functional somatic symptoms in adulthood: a difference-in-difference analysis from Sweden

Background

The impact of macroeconomic conditions on health has been extensively explored, as well as the relationship between individual unemployment and health. There are, however, few studies taking both aspects into account and even fewer studies looking at the relationship in a life course perspective. In this study the aim was to assess the role of macroeconomic conditions, such as national unemployment level, for the long-term relationship between individual unemployment and functional somatic symptoms (FSS), by analysing data from two longitudinal cohorts representing different periods of unemployment level in Sweden.

Methods

A difference-in-difference (DiD) analysis was applied, looking at the difference over time between recession and pre-recession periods for unemployed youths (age 21 to 25) on FSS in adulthood. FSS was constructed as an index of ten self-reported items of somatic ill-health. Covariates for socioeconomics, previous health status and social environment were included.

Results

An association was found in the difference of adult FSS between unemployed and employed youths in the pre-recession and recession periods, remaining in the adjusted model for the pre-recession period. The DiD analysis between unemployed youths showed that men had significantly lower adult FSS during the recession compared to men in the pre-recession time.

Conclusions

Adulthood FSS showed to be significantly lower among unemployed youths, in particular among men, during recession compared to pre-recession times. Since this is a fairly unexplored research field, more research is needed to explore the role of macroeconomic conditions for various health outcomes, long-term implications and gender differences.

Children of boom and recession and the scars to the mental health--a comparative study on the long term effects of youth unemployment

BACKGROUND

Earlier research shows that there is an association between unemployment and poor mental health, and that recovery from the damages to mental health obtained during unemployment remains incomplete over a long period of time. The present study relates this 'mental health scarring' to the trade cycle, exploring if those exposed to youth unemployment during boom differ from those exposed during recession with respect to mental health in the middle age.

METHODS

The sample consists of two cohorts from the same industrial town in Northern Sweden: the cohort born in 1965 and the cohort born in 1973 included all pupils attending the last grade of compulsory school, respectively, in 1981 and in 1989. Their depressiveness and anxiousness were assessed by questionnaires at age 21 and again at age 43/39. Mental health at follow-up was related to exposure to unemployment during age years 21-25. Statistical significance of the cohort*exposure interactions from binary logistic regression analyses were used to assess the cohort differences in the mental health between Cohort65 and Cohort73, entering the labour market, respectively, during a boom and a recession.

RESULTS

Compared to the unexposed, high exposure to unemployment at the age from 21 to 25 was associated to increased probability of poor mental health in the middle age in both in Cohort65 (odds ratio 2.19 [1.46-3.30] for anxiousness and 1.85 [1.25-2.74]for depressiveness) and in Cohort73 (odds ratio 2.13 [1.33-3.39] for anxiousness and 1.38 [0.89-2.14] for depressiveness). The differences between the cohorts also turned out as statistically non-significant.

CONCLUSIONS

The scars of unemployment exposure onto future health seem to be rather insensitive to economic trades. Thus, at the population level this would mean that the long-term health costs that can be attributed to youth unemployment are more widespread in the generation that suffers of recession around the entry to the work life.

Factors affecting the psychological distress among unemployed and re-employed individuals

Purpose

– The purpose of this paper is to examine coping strategies, social support, and psychological distress for comparable samples of unemployed (n=389) and re-employed (n=270) individuals. The authors hypothesized that problem-focused coping and higher levels of social support would be associated with lower levels of psychological distress for unemployed vs re-employed participants.

Design/methodology/approach

– The cross-sectional design and the convenience sampling method were used in the study.

Findings

– Although unemployed participants reported poorer coping, higher levels of psychological distress, and lower levels of social support compared to re-employed participants; social support and coping strategies predicted psychological distress. Multiple regression analyses suggest that emotion-focused coping strategies were related to higher levels of psychological distress, whereas social support and problem-focused coping strategies were related to lower levels of psychological distress. Social support accounted for more variance in participants’ psychological distress above and beyond all other variables. Single and unemployed participants of the study used less problem-focused, more emotion-focused coping, and perceived lower social support than married unemployed. Gender and marital status of the unemployed were also significantly associated with psychological distress. In addition, older and less educated unemployed participants perceived less social support and used emotion-focused coping more frequently.

Practical implications

– The findings indicated that being female, single, older, and low educated are the potential sociodemographic risk factors for the psychosocial well-being of unemployed people.

Originality/value

– The favourable effects of certain coping strategies suggest the potential benefits of interventions to reduce reliance on emotion-focused coping and stimulate more problem-focused strategies in order to enhance psychological well-being.

Mental health, duration of unemployment, and coping strategy: a cross-sectional study of unemployed migrant workers in eastern China during the economic crisis

Background

20 million migrant workers in China lost their jobs during the economic crisis of 2008. Both urban migration and unemployment have long been documented to be associated with vulnerability to mental problems. This study aims to examine the mental health of unemployed migrant workers in Eastern China and its relation to duration of unemployment and coping strategy during the recent economic crisis.

Methods

The data were collected through interview-based survey with a sample of 210 unemployed migrant workers in Zhejiang Province of China from 2008 to 2009. Symptom Checklist-90-Revised, Coping Strategies Questionnaire, and seven short demographic questions were used.

Results

The majority of the unemployed migrant workers were found to be young male manufacturing industry workers with short-term unemployment and a relatively low education level. Nearly 50% of unemployed migrant workers were classified as mentally unhealthy and the most frequently reported symptom was depression. Compared with the adult norm of 1986, 2003, and 2007 in China, unemployed migrants had more mental problems. Long-term unemployed migrant workers had more psychiatric symptoms than the short-term unemployed workers and employed migrant workers. Unemployed migrant workers with immature coping strategies expressed significantly more psychiatric symptoms than those with mixed and mature coping strategies. Duration of unemployment and two coping strategies, problem-solving and self-blaming, predicted the mental problems of unemployed migrant workers.

Conclusions

The results indicated that mental health status of unemployed migrant workers in Eastern China was poorer than the national adult norm. More psychiatric symptoms are evidenced among unemployed migrant workers who lost their jobs for a long term and who had immature coping strategies. These findings can be used for prevention and intervention of mental illness among unemployed migrant workers.

Bring in the social context: towards an integrated approach to health promotion and prevention

AIMS

In this paper I take up the quest for an integrated approach to health promotion and prevention that incorporates the social context. I suggest that an integrated theory of public health has to rethink the individual society relationships and move beyond the dominance of socialization theory and individual level analysis.

METHODS

A theoretical analysis of key issues in an integrated theory of public health.

RESULTS

I maintain that we must shift the attention away from the individual to the social organization and the embeddedness of the social actor in the ongoing social networks and relationships; we must pay attention to the definition of levels of analysis and the relationships between them; we must emphasize the social mechanisms that influence people in social relationships and networks and connect various levels; we must reconsider some of the epistemological and methodological ideas that have been taken for granted and pay attention to issues of emergence and reductionism and the use of multiple methods.

CONCLUSIONS

I conclude by suggesting that if public health is to move forward and develop better theories, and more efficient ways of prevention and health promotion, it needs to move beyond reductionist models of social behaviour and develop a transdisciplinary approach that integrates various elements from different disciplines and different levels of analysis.