Baradaran H, Delic A, Wong KH, Sheibani N, Alexander M, McNally JS, Majersik JJ, De Havenon A. Using Ultrasound and Inflammation to Improve Prediction of Ischemic Stroke: A Secondary Analysis of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.
Cerebrovasc Dis Extra 2021;
11:37-43. [PMID:
33601394 PMCID:
PMC7989729 DOI:
10.1159/000514373]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2020] [Accepted: 12/07/2020] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION
Current ischemic stroke risk prediction is primarily based on clinical factors, rather than imaging or laboratory markers. We examined the relationship between baseline ultrasound and inflammation measurements and subsequent primary ischemic stroke risk.
METHODS
In this secondary analysis of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), the primary outcome is the incident ischemic stroke during follow-up. The predictor variables are 9 carotid ultrasound-derived measurements and 6 serum inflammation measurements from the baseline study visit. We fit Cox regression models to the outcome of ischemic stroke. The baseline model included patient age, hypertension, diabetes, total cholesterol, smoking, and systolic blood pressure. Goodness-of-fit statistics were assessed to compare the baseline model to a model with ultrasound and inflammation predictor variables that remained significant when added to the baseline model.
RESULTS
We included 5,918 participants. The primary outcome of ischemic stroke was seen in 105 patients with a mean follow-up time of 7.7 years. In the Cox models, we found that carotid distensibility (CD), carotid stenosis (CS), and serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) were associated with incident stroke. Adding tertiles of CD, IL-6, and categories of CS to a baseline model that included traditional clinical vascular risk factors resulted in a better model fit than traditional risk factors alone as indicated by goodness-of-fit statistics.
CONCLUSIONS
In a multiethnic cohort of patients without cerebrovascular disease at baseline, we found that CD, CS, and IL-6 helped predict the occurrence of primary ischemic stroke. Future research could evaluate if these basic ultrasound and serum measurements have implications for primary prevention efforts or clinical trial inclusion criteria.
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