Rise of the Machines? Predicting Brivaracetam Response Using Machine Learning

Back to the Basics in Predictive Modeling-Predicting Surgical Success

Predicting Seizure Outcome After Epilepsy Surgery: Do We Need More Complex Models, Larger Samples, or Better Data? Eriksson MH, Ripart M, Piper RJ, Piper RJ, Moeller F, Das KB, Eltze C, Cooray G, Booth J, Whitaker KJ, Chari A, Sanfilippo PM, Caballero AP, Menzies L, McTague A, Tisdall MM, Cross JH, Baldeweg T, Adler S, Wagstyl K. Epilepsia. 2023;64(8):2014-2026. doi:10.1111/epi.17637 Objective: The accurate prediction of seizure freedom after epilepsy surgery remains challenging. We investigated if (1) training more complex models, (2) recruiting larger sample sizes, or (3) using data-driven selection of clinical predictors would improve our ability to predict postoperative seizure outcome using clinical features. We also conducted the first substantial external validation of a machine learning model trained to predict postoperative seizure outcome. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 797 children who had undergone resective or disconnective epilepsy surgery at a tertiary center. We extracted patient information from medical records and trained three models—a logistic regression, a multilayer perceptron, and an XGBoost model—to predict 1-year postoperative seizure outcome on our data set. We evaluated the performance of a recently published XGBoost model on the same patients. We further investigated the impact of sample size on model performance, using learning curve analysis to estimate performance at samples up to N = 2000. Finally, we examined the impact of predictor selection on model performance. Results: Our logistic regression achieved an accuracy of 72% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 68%-75%, area under the curve [AUC] = .72), whereas our multilayer perceptron and XGBoost both achieved accuracies of 71% (95% CIMLP = 67%-74%, AUCMLP = .70; 95% CIXGBoost own = 68%-75%, AUCXGBoost own = .70). There was no significant difference in performance between our three models (all p > .4) and they all performed better than the external XGBoost, which achieved an accuracy of 63% (95% CI = 59%-67%, AUC = .62; p LR = .005, p MLP = .01, p XGBoost own = .01) on our data. All models showed improved performance with increasing sample size, but limited improvements beyond our current sample. The best model performance was achieved with data-driven feature selection. Significance: We show that neither the deployment of complex machine learning models nor the assembly of thousands of patients alone is likely to generate significant improvements in our ability to predict postoperative seizure freedom. We instead propose that improved feature selection alongside collaboration, data standardization, and model sharing is required to advance the field.

Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Applications to Epilepsy: a Review for the Practicing Epileptologist

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are data-driven techniques to translate raw data into applicable and interpretable insights that can assist in clinical decision making. Some of these tools have extremely promising initial results, earning both great excitement and creating hype. This non-technical article reviews recent developments in ML/AI in epilepsy to assist the current practicing epileptologist in understanding both the benefits and limitations of integrating ML/AI tools into their clinical practice.

RECENT FINDINGS

ML/AI tools have been developed to assist clinicians in almost every clinical decision including (1) predicting future epilepsy in people at risk, (2) detecting and monitoring for seizures, (3) differentiating epilepsy from mimics, (4) using data to improve neuroanatomic localization and lateralization, and (5) tracking and predicting response to medical and surgical treatments. We also discuss practical, ethical, and equity considerations in the development and application of ML/AI tools including chatbots based on Large Language Models (e.g., ChatGPT). ML/AI tools will change how clinical medicine is practiced, but, with rare exceptions, the transferability to other centers, effectiveness, and safety of these approaches have not yet been established rigorously. In the future, ML/AI will not replace epileptologists, but epileptologists with ML/AI will replace epileptologists without ML/AI.

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Pharmacological Research: Bridging the Gap Between Data and Drug Discovery

Artificial intelligence (AI) has transformed pharmacological research through machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. These advancements have greatly influenced drug discovery, development, and precision medicine. AI algorithms analyze vast biomedical data identifying potential drug targets, predicting efficacy, and optimizing lead compounds. AI has diverse applications in pharmacological research, including target identification, drug repurposing, virtual screening, de novo drug design, toxicity prediction, and personalized medicine. AI improves patient selection, trial design, and real-time data analysis in clinical trials, leading to enhanced safety and efficacy outcomes. Post-marketing surveillance utilizes AI-based systems to monitor adverse events, detect drug interactions, and support pharmacovigilance efforts. Machine learning models extract patterns from complex datasets, enabling accurate predictions and informed decision-making, thus accelerating drug discovery. Deep learning, specifically convolutional neural networks (CNN), excels in image analysis, aiding biomarker identification and optimizing drug formulation. Natural language processing facilitates the mining and analysis of scientific literature, unlocking valuable insights and information. However, the adoption of AI in pharmacological research raises ethical considerations. Ensuring data privacy and security, addressing algorithm bias and transparency, obtaining informed consent, and maintaining human oversight in decision-making are crucial ethical concerns. The responsible deployment of AI necessitates robust frameworks and regulations. The future of AI in pharmacological research is promising, with integration with emerging technologies like genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics offering the potential for personalized medicine and targeted therapies. Collaboration among academia, industry, and regulatory bodies is essential for the ethical implementation of AI in drug discovery and development. Continuous research and development in AI techniques and comprehensive training programs will empower scientists and healthcare professionals to fully exploit AI's potential, leading to improved patient outcomes and innovative pharmacological interventions.

Deep Thoughts—Predicting Initial Treatment Response in Newly Diagnosed Epilepsy

[Box: see text]