The transitioning from trials to extended follow-up studies

Treatment of missing data in follow-up studies of randomised controlled trials: A systematic review of the literature

BACKGROUND/AIMS

After completion of a randomised controlled trial, an extended follow-up period may be initiated to learn about longer term impacts of the intervention. Since extended follow-up studies often involve additional eligibility restrictions and consent processes for participation, and a longer duration of follow-up entails a greater risk of participant attrition, missing data can be a considerable threat in this setting. As a potential source of bias, it is critical that missing data are appropriately handled in the statistical analysis, yet little is known about the treatment of missing data in extended follow-up studies. The aims of this review were to summarise the extent of missing data in extended follow-up studies and the use of statistical approaches to address this potentially serious problem.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature search in PubMed to identify extended follow-up studies published from January to June 2015. Studies were eligible for inclusion if the original randomised controlled trial results were also published and if the main objective of extended follow-up was to compare the original randomised groups. We recorded information on the extent of missing data and the approach used to treat missing data in the statistical analysis of the primary outcome of the extended follow-up study.

RESULTS

Of the 81 studies included in the review, 36 (44%) reported additional eligibility restrictions and 24 (30%) consent processes for entry into extended follow-up. Data were collected at a median of 7 years after randomisation. Excluding 28 studies with a time to event primary outcome, 51/53 studies (96%) reported missing data on the primary outcome. The median percentage of randomised participants with complete data on the primary outcome was just 66% in these studies. The most common statistical approach to address missing data was complete case analysis (51% of studies), while likelihood-based analyses were also well represented (25%). Sensitivity analyses around the missing data mechanism were rarely performed (25% of studies), and when they were, they often involved unrealistic assumptions about the mechanism.

CONCLUSION

Despite missing data being a serious problem in extended follow-up studies, statistical approaches to addressing missing data were often inadequate. We recommend researchers clearly specify all sources of missing data in follow-up studies and use statistical methods that are valid under a plausible assumption about the missing data mechanism. Sensitivity analyses should also be undertaken to assess the robustness of findings to assumptions about the missing data mechanism.

Characteristics of participants consenting versus declining follow-up for up to 10 years in a randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

With patients living a decade or longer post-procedure, long-term data are needed to assess the durability of carotid artery stenting versus carotid endarterectomy. Identifying characteristics of those consenting or declining to continue in long-term follow-up may suggest strategies to improve retention in clinical trials.

PURPOSE

This report describes differences between patients choosing or declining to continue follow-up for up to 10 years in the Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy versus Stenting Trial.

METHODS

Following completion of the primary outcome, patients who were in active Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy versus Stenting Trial follow-up were asked to continue beyond their original 4-year commitment for a maximum of 10 years. The characteristics of those who consented were compared with those who declined. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression were used for analysis, and backwards stepwise logistic regression (the most parsimonious model) was used to determine the factors associated with continuation.

RESULTS

Of the 1921 active Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy versus Stenting Trial participants for whom consent to extend follow-up was requested, 1695 (88%; mean age: 68.4) consented; 226 (12%; mean age: 69.6) declined. Of those who did not consent versus those who consented, 66% versus 48% were symptomatic at baseline (p<0.0001), at follow-up 28% versus 20% were smokers (p=0.009), 85% versus 90% were hypertensive (p=0.01), and 84% versus 94% were dyslipidemic (p<0.0001). Additional factors that differed between those who did not consent and those who consented included the mean number of years in the study at time of consent (4.8 years vs 3.7 years (p=<0.0001)) and patients from sites that enrolled <30 patients compared to sites randomizing 30 or more (70% vs 52% (p<0.0001)). Multivariable logistic regression indicated that those with lesser odds of consenting to the extended follow-up were older (odds ratio: 0.80; 95% confidence interval: 0.67, 0.96), more likely to be symptomatic (odds ratio: 0.58; 95% confidence interval: 0.42, 0.80), smokers (odds ratio: 0.48; 95% confidence interval: 0.34, 0.70), were in the study 5+ years versus <3 (odds ratio: 0.21; 95% confidence interval: 0.13, 0.34), and at a site that randomized <30 patients (odds ratio: 0.46; 95% confidence interval: 0.33, 0.63), while patients with dyslipidemia at follow-up had increased odds of consenting (odds ratio: 2.28 (1.47, 3.54)).

CONCLUSION

Symptomatic status, increasing age, randomized at lower volume centers, and longer time in follow-up were associated with reduced odds of consenting to long-term follow-up. Identifying factors associated with reduced willingness to extend participation long-term can suggest targeted strategies to improve retention in future clinical trials.