Identifying optimal biomarker combinations for treatment selection through randomized controlled trials

Identification of the optimal treatment regimen in the presence of missing covariates

Covariates associated with treatment-effect heterogeneity can potentially be used to make personalized treatment recommendations towards best clinical outcomes. Methods for treatment-selection rule development that directly maximize treatment-selection benefits have attracted much interest in recent years, due to the robustness of these methods to outcome modeling. In practice, the task of treatment-selection rule development can be further complicated by missingness in data. Here, we consider the identification of optimal treatment-selection rules for a binary disease outcome when measurements of an important covariate from study participants are partly missing. Under the missing at random assumption, we develop a robust estimator of treatment-selection rules under the direct-optimization paradigm. This estimator targets the maximum selection benefits to the population under correct specification of at least one mechanism from each of the two sets-missing data or conditional covariate distribution, and treatment assignment or disease outcome model. We evaluate and compare performance of the proposed estimator with alternative direct-optimization estimators through extensive simulation studies. We demonstrate the application of the proposed method through a real data example from an Alzheimer's disease study for developing covariate combinations to guide the treatment of Alzheimer's disease.

Selecting Biomarkers for building optimal treatment selection rules using Kernel Machines

Optimal biomarker combinations for treatment-selection can be derived by minimizing total burden to the population caused by the targeted disease and its treatment. However, when multiple biomarkers are present, including all in the model can be expensive and hurt model performance. To remedy this, we consider feature selection in optimization by minimizing an extended total burden that additionally incorporates biomarker costs. Formulating it as a 0-norm penalized weighted-classification, we develop various procedures for estimating linear and nonlinear combinations. Through simulations and a real data example, we demonstrate the importance of incorporating feature-selection and marker cost when deriving treatment-selection rules.

Tree-based Ensemble Methods For Individualized Treatment Rules

There is a growing interest in development of statistical methods for personalized medicine or precision medicine, especially for deriving optimal individualized treatment rules (ITRs). An ITR recommends a patient to a treatment based on the patient's characteristics. The common parametric methods for deriving an optimal ITR, which model the clinical endpoint as a function of the patient's characteristics, can have suboptimal performance when the conditional mean model is misspecified. Recent methodology development has cast the problem of deriving optimal ITR under a weighted classification framework. Under this weighted classification framework, we develop a weighted random forests (W-RF) algorithm that derives an optimal ITR nonparametrically. In addition, with the W-RF algorithm, we propose the variable importance measures for quantifying relative relevance of the patient's characteristics to treatment selection, and the out-of-bag estimator for the population average outcome under the estimated optimal ITR. Our proposed methods are evaluated through intensive simulation studies. We illustrate the application of our methods using data from Clinical Antipsychotic Trials of Intervention Effectiveness Alzheimers Disease Study (CATIE-AD).

Influence Analysis for the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

Classification measures play essential roles in the assessment and construction of classifiers. Hence, determining how to prevent these measures from being affected by individual observations has become an important problem. In this paper, we propose several indexes based on the influence function and the concept of local influence to identify influential observations that affect the estimate of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), an important and commonly used measure. Cumulative lift charts are also used to equipoise the disagreements among the proposed indexes. Both the AUC indexes and the graphical tools only rely on the classification scores, and both are applicable to classifiers that can produce real-valued classification scores. A real data set is used for illustration.