Predicting Leadership Success in Extreme Organizations: A Prospective Study From Pre-Recruitment Through Leading in Real-Life

Organizations performing in stressful life-risking environments have unique features that directly influence human lives and communities’ well-being. Such organizations allocate vast resources to identify potential leaders as early as possible to direct and train them for leadership positions. Combat military contexts represent such organizations. The current manuscript offers a 5-year prospective study, addressing a critical gap in the literature regarding the generalization of established predictive leadership success models to leadership in extreme conditions. The study integrates leaders’ characteristics, followers’ perceptions, leadership training, and real-life contexts. Findings show that leadership traits measured years before enlistment related to leadership success, years down the line, when congruent with specific training contexts. Candidates higher in both task and relationship characteristics and in leadership emergence progressed to the senior leadership course compared to dropouts. Leadership emergence, measured in the first phase of leadership training, was the most relevant, stable, and reliable leader’s success predictor, directly and indirectly, of leadership development, above and beyond leadership characteristics. Findings emphasize the important influence of contextual congruency on leadership success in extreme organizations. Current findings may foster better leadership prospects for communities’ well-being and may improve cost-effectiveness in the leadership development processes in extreme occupations.