Outbreak column 18: The undervalued work of outbreak: prevention, preparedness, detection and management

There are oft-quoted studies which advise that between 1% and 10% of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) present as healthcare-associated outbreaks (HAOs). Examination of these studies showed they lacked validity due to a low sensitivity to detect HAO, and because they pre-date both advanced healthcare systems and the emergence of recent nosocomial pathogen challenges. The accepted inference: that as there are so few HAOs the focus of surveillance programmes should be on endemic and not epidemic infections (outbreaks), is therefore called into question. Current estimates of HAI burden are derived from Point Prevalence Surveys (PPS) which are neither designed to nor are capable of detecting HAOs. We considered the extensive Infection Prevention and Control Team (IPCT) work to prevent and prepare for perennial and novel HAOs and suggest that at present this endeavour is largely unseen, underestimated and undervalued. Any HAI burden estimate needs to comprise a more complete HAI summary than PPS data. This can only be done with a more inclusive surveillance system that has a wider focus than just prevalent infections. There is a real risk of redirection of the IPCT resource from outbreak prevention and preparedness work towards HAI that are counted: such a change could only further increase HAO risks.

Outbreak Column 16: Cognitive errors in outbreak decision making

During outbreaks, decisions must be made without all the required information. People, including infection prevention and control teams (IPCTs), who have to make decisions during uncertainty use heuristics to fill the missing data gaps. Heuristics are mental model short cuts that by-and-large enable us to make good decisions quickly. However, these heuristics contain biases and effects that at times lead to cognitive (thinking) errors. These cognitive errors are not made to deliberately misrepresent any given situation; we are subject to heuristic biases when we are trying to perform optimally. The science of decision making is large; there are over 100 different biases recognised and described. Outbreak Column 16 discusses and relates these heuristics and biases to decision making during outbreak prevention, preparedness and management. Insights as to how we might recognise and avoid them are offered.