Circulating tumor DNA in early-stage colon cancer: ready for prime time or needing refinement?

Circulating Tumor DNA Predicts Early Recurrence Following Locoregional Therapy for Oligometastatic Colorectal Cancer

(1) Background: Local therapies offer a potentially curative approach for patients with oligometastatic colorectal cancer (CRC). An evidence-based consensus recommendation for systemic therapy following definitive locoregional therapy is lacking. Tumor-informed circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) might provide information to help guide management in this setting. (2) Methods: A multi-institutional retrospective study was conducted, including patients with CRC that underwent curative-intent locoregional therapy to an isolated site of metastatic disease, followed by tumor-informed ctDNA assessment. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank tests were used to compare disease-free survival based on ctDNA results. ctDNA test performance was compared to carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) test results using McNemar's test. (3) Results: Our study cohort consisted of 87 patients treated with locoregional interventions who underwent ctDNA testing. The initial ctDNA test post-intervention was positive in 28 patients and negative in 59 patients. The median follow-up time was 14.0 months. Detectable ctDNA post-intervention was significantly associated with early disease recurrence, with a median disease-free survival (DFS) of 6.63 months compared to 21.30 months in ctDNA-negative patients (p < 0.001). ctDNA detected a numerically higher proportion of recurrences than CEA (p < 0.097). Post-intervention systemic therapy was not associated with improved DFS (p = 0.745). (4) Conclusions: ctDNA results are prognostically important in oligometastatic CRC, and further prospective studies are urgently needed to define its role in guiding clinical decisions.

Waiting for the "liquid revolution" in the adjuvant treatment of colon cancer patients: a review of ongoing trials

Since colon cancer has a high rate of shedding of tumour fragments into the blood, several research efforts are now focused on the investigation of the minimal residual disease through the detection of ctDNA to tailor the adjuvant therapy of colon cancer patients and optimize its cost/effectiveness balance. The negative prognostic impact of detectable ctDNA in patients' blood after radical surgery for colon cancer is well established. Several clinical trials adopting heterogeneous designs and techniques are now ongoing to translate promises into daily practice by answering five general questions: i) is a ctDNA-guided decision making efficacious in the post-operative management of colon cancer patients? ii) are de-escalation strategies possible in ctDNA-negative cases? iii) are escalation strategies useful to improve the prognosis of ctDNA-positive patients? iv) when MRD is identified at the end of the adjuvant chemotherapy, is another post-adjuvant systemic therapy efficacious? v) can we exploit ctDNA technologies in the follow up of colon cancer patients? This review focuses on currently ongoing trials and how their results may affect the ctDNA "liquid revolution" of early colon cancer.

Machine Learning Predicts Oxaliplatin Benefit in Early Colon Cancer

PURPOSE

A combination of fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) is the standard for adjuvant therapy of resected early-stage colon cancer (CC). Oxaliplatin leads to lasting and disabling neurotoxicity. Reserving the regimen for patients who benefit from oxaliplatin would maximize efficacy and minimize unnecessary adverse side effects.

METHODS

We trained a new machine learning model, referred to as the colon oxaliplatin signature (COLOXIS) model, for predicting response to oxaliplatin-containing regimens. We examined whether COLOXIS was predictive of oxaliplatin benefits in the CC adjuvant setting among 1,065 patients treated with 5-fluorouracil plus leucovorin (FULV; n = 421) or FULV + oxaliplatin (FOLFOX; n = 644) from NSABP C-07 and C-08 phase III trials. The COLOXIS model dichotomizes patients into COLOXIS+ (oxaliplatin responder) and COLOXIS- (nonresponder) groups. Eight-year recurrence-free survival was used to evaluate oxaliplatin benefits within each of the groups, and the predictive value of the COLOXIS model was assessed using the P value associated with the interaction term (int P) between the model prediction and the treatment effect.

RESULTS

Among 1,065 patients, 526 were predicted as COLOXIS+ and 539 as COLOXIS-. The COLOXIS+ prediction was associated with prognosis for FULV-treated patients (hazard ratio [HR], 1.52 [95% CI, 1.07 to 2.15]; P = .017). The model was predictive of oxaliplatin benefits: COLOXIS+ patients benefited from oxaliplatin (HR, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.48 to 0.89]; P = .0065; int P = .03), but COLOXIS- patients did not (COLOXIS- HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.77 to 1.52]; P = .65).

CONCLUSION

The COLOXIS model is predictive of oxaliplatin benefits in the CC adjuvant setting. The results provide evidence supporting a change in CC adjuvant therapy: reserve oxaliplatin only for COLOXIS+ patients, but further investigation is warranted.

Optimizing the number of variants tracked to follow disease burden with circulating tumor DNA assays in metastatic colorectal cancer

Background

The number of somatic mutations detectable in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is highly heterogeneous in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). The optimal number of mutations required to assess disease kinetics is relevant and remains poorly understood.

Objectives

To determine whether increasing panel breadth (the number of tracked variants in a ctDNA assay) would alter the sensitivity in detecting ctDNA in patients with mCRC.

Design

We used archival tissue sequencing to perform an in silico assessment of the optimal number of tracked mutations to detect and monitor disease kinetics in mCRC using sequencing data from the Canadian Cancer Trials Group CO.26 trial.

Methods

For each patient, 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, or 16 of the most clonal (highest variant allele frequency) somatic variants were selected from archival tissue-based whole-exome sequencing and assessed for the proportion of variants detected in matched ctDNA at baseline, week 8, and progression timepoints.

Results

Data from 110 patients were analyzed. Genes most frequently encountered among the top four highest VAF variants in archival tissue were TP53 (51.9% of patients), APC (43.3%), KRAS (42.3%), and SMAD4 (9.6%). While the frequency of detecting at least one tracked variant increased when expanding beyond variant pool sizes of 1 and 2 in baseline (p = 0.0030) and progression (p = 0.0030) ctDNA samples, we observed no significant benefit to increases in variant pool size past four variants in any of the ctDNA timepoints (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

While increasing panel breadth beyond two tracked variants improved variant re-detection in ctDNA samples from patients with treatment refractory mCRC, increases beyond four tracked variants yielded no significant improvement in variant re-detection.

CtDNA's prognostic value in patients with early-stage colorectal cancer after surgery: A meta-analysis and systematic review

BACKGROUND

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) positivity has been shown to suggest the presence of minimally residual tumor cells in numerous investigations. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of ctDNA positivity for recurrence-free survival in patients with early-stage colorectal cancer after radical surgery and following adjuvant chemotherapy.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed studies published in English until August 15, 2022, concerning ctDNA and tumor-node-metastasis I to III colorectal cancer after surgery, and quantified the correlation between ctDNA positivity and early-stage (tumor-node-metastasis stage I-III) colorectal cancer using meta-analysis methods.

RESULTS

In total, the meta-analysis comprised 1713 patients from 6 studies. Patients with ctDNA-positive colorectal cancer after surgery had a significantly higher risk of recurrence than patients with ctDNA-negative colorectal cancer (hazard ratio 4.64, 95% confidence interval 2.17-9.92, z = 3.96; P < .001). After adjuvant chemotherapy, patients who were ctDNA-positive had a significantly higher risk of recurrence than those who were ctDNA-negative (hazard ratio 7.27, 95% confidence interval 4.50-11.75, z = 8.1; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

CtDNA positivity may potentially be a predictor for early-stage colorectal tumor recurrence following surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy.