Identifiability Analysis of Three Control-Oriented Models for Use in Artificial Pancreas Systems

Learning-based sensitivity analysis and feedback design for drug delivery of mixed therapy of cancer in the presence of high model uncertainties

In this paper, a methodology is proposed that enables to analyze the sensitivity of the outcome of a therapy to unavoidable high dispersion of the patient specific parameters on one hand and to the choice of the parameters that define the drug delivery feedback strategy on the other hand. More precisely, a method is given that enables to extract and rank the most influent parameters that determine the probability of success/failure of a given feedback therapy for a given set of initial conditions over a cloud of realizations of uncertainties. Moreover predictors of the expectations of the amounts of drugs being used can also be derived. This enables to design an efficient stochastic optimization framework that guarantees safe contraction of the tumor while minimizing a weighted sum of the quantities of the different drugs being used. The framework is illustrated and validated using the example of a mixed therapy of cancer involving three combined drugs namely: a chemotherapy drug, an immunology vaccine and an immunotherapy drug. Finally, in this specific case, it is shown that dash-boards can be built in the 2D-space of the most influent state components that summarize the outcomes' probabilities and the associated drug usage as iso-values curves in the reduced state space.

Internal model control based module for the elimination of meal and exercise announcements in hybrid artificial pancreas systems

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Hybrid artificial pancreas systems outperform current insulin pump therapies in blood glucose regulation in type 1 diabetes. However, subjects still have to inform the system about meals intake and exercise to achieve reasonable control. These patient announcements may result in overburden and compromise controller performance if not provided timely and accurately. Here, a hybrid artificial pancreas is extended with an add-on module that releases subjects from meals and exercise announcements.

METHODS

The add-on module consists of an internal-model controller that generates a "virtual" control action to compensate for disturbances. This "virtual" action is converted into insulin delivery, rescue carbohydrates suggestions, or insulin-on-board limitations, depending on a switching logic based on glucose measurements and predictions. The controller parameters are tuned by optimization and then related to standard parameters from the open-loop therapy. This module is implemented in a hybrid artificial pancreas system proposed by our research group for validation. This hybrid system extended with the add-on module is compared with the hybrid controller with carbohydrate counting errors (hybrid) and the hybrid controller with an alternative unannounced meal compensation module based on a meal detection algorithm (meal detector). The validation used the educational version of the UVa/Padova simulator to simulate the three controllers under two scenarios: one with only meals and another with meals and exercise. The exercise was modeled as a temporal increase of the insulin sensitivity resulting in the glucose drop usually related to an aerobic exercise.

RESULTS

For the scenario with only meals, the three controllers achieved similar time in range (proposed: 85.1 [77.9,88.1]%, hybrid: 84.0 [75.9,86.4]%, meal detector: 81.9 [79.3,83.8]%, median [interquartile range]) with low time in moderate hypoglycemia. Under the scenario with meals and exercise, the proposed module reduces 4.61% the time in hypoglycemia achieved with the other controllers, suggesting an acceptable amount of rescues (27.2 [23.7, 31.0] g).

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed add-on module achieved promising results: it outperformed the meal-detector-based controller, even achieving a postprandial performance as good as the hybrid controller (with carbohydrate counting errors). Also, the rescue suggestion feature of the module mitigated exercise-induced hypoglycemia with admissible rescue amounts.

Generation of post-meal insulin correction boluses in type 1 diabetes simulation models for in-silico clinical trials: More realistic scenarios obtained using a decision tree approach

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

In type 1 diabetes (T1D) research, in-silico clinical trials (ISCTs) notably facilitate the design/testing of new therapies. Published simulation tools embed mathematical models of blood glucose (BG) and insulin dynamics, continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors, and insulin treatments, but lack a realistic description of some aspects of patient lifestyle impacting on glucose control. Specifically, to effectively simulate insulin correction boluses, required to treat post-meal hyperglycemia (BG > 180 mg/dL), the timing of the bolus may be influenced by subjects' behavioral attitudes. In this work, we develop an easily interpretable model of the variability of correction bolus timing observed in real data, and embed it into a popular simulation tool for ISCTs.

METHODS

Using data collected in 196 adults with T1D monitored in free-living conditions, we trained a decision tree (DT) model to classify whether a correction bolus is injected in a future time window, based on predictors collected back in time, related to CGM data, previous insulin boluses and subject's characteristics. The performance was compared to that of a logistic regression classifier with LASSO regularization (LC), trained on the same dataset. After validation, the DT was embedded within a popular T1D simulation tool and an ISCT was performed to compare the simulated correction boluses against those observed in a subset of data not used for model training.

RESULTS

The DT provided better classification performance (accuracy: 0.792, sensitivity: 0.430, specificity: 0.878, precision: 0.455) than the LC and presented good interpretability. The most predictive features were related to CGM (and its temporal variations), time since the last insulin bolus, and time of the day. The correction boluses simulated by the DT, after implementation in the simulation tool, showed a good agreement with real-world data.

CONCLUSIONS

The DT developed in this work represents a simple set of rules to mimic the same timing of correction boluses observed on real data. The inclusion of the model in simulation tools allows investigators to perform ISCTs that more realistically represent the patient behavior in taking correction boluses and the post-prandial BG response. In the future, more complex models can be investigated.

A metamodel-based flexible insulin therapy for type 1 diabetes patients subjected to aerobic physical activity

Patients with type 1 diabetes are subject to exogenous insulin injections, whether manually or through (semi)automated insulin pumps. Basic knowledge of the patient's characteristics and flexible insulin therapy (FIT) parameters are then needed. Specifically, artificial pancreas-like closed-loop insulin delivery systems are some of the most promising devices for substituting for endogenous insulin secretion in type 1 diabetes patients. However, these devices require self-reported information such as carbohydrates or physical activity from the patient, introducing potential miscalculations and delays that can have life-threatening consequences. Here, we display a metamodel for glucose-insulin dynamics that is subject to carbohydrate ingestion and aerobic physical activity. This metamodel incorporates major existing knowledge-based models. We derive comprehensive and universal definitions of the underlying FIT parameters to form an insulin sensitivity factor (ISF). In addition, the relevance of physical activity modelling is assessed, and the FIT is updated to take physical exercise into account. Specifically, we cope with physical activity by using heart rate sensors (watches) with a fully automated closed insulin loop, aiming to maximize the time spent in the glycaemic range (75.5% in the range and 1.3% below the range for hypoglycaemia on a virtual patient simulator).These mathematical parameter definitions are interesting on their own, may be new tools for assessing mathematical models and can ultimately be used in closed-loop artificial pancreas algorithms or to extend distinguished FIT.

Advanced hybrid artificial pancreas system improves on unannounced meal response - In silico comparison to currently available system

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Glycemic control, especially meal-related disturbance rejection, has proven to be a major challenge for people with type 1 diabetes. In this manuscript, we introduce a novel, personalized, advanced hybrid insulin infusion system (a.k.a. artificial pancreas) based on the Model Predictive Control (MPC) methodology to adjust insulin infusion while automatically rejecting uninformed meals.

METHODS

The proposed advanced hybrid closed-loop system relies on the integration of three key elements: (i) an adaptive personalized MPC control law that modulates the control strength depending on recent past control actions, glucose measurements, and its derivative, (ii) an automatic Bolus Priming System (BPS) that commands additional insulin injections safely upon the detection of enabling metabolic conditions (e.g., an unacknowledged meal), and (iii) a new hyperglycemia mitigation system to avoid prevailing hyperglycemia. The benefits of the proposed system are demonstrated through simulations and tests using the most up-to-date Type 1 UVA/Padova simulator as preclinical stage prior to in vivo clinical tests. We used a legacy algorithm (USS Virginia), currently used in clinical care, as a benchmark controller.

RESULTS

Overall, the proposed control strategy enhanced by an automatic BPS improves glycemic control when compared with an available system. When a large meal is not announced (80g CHO), the proposed controller outperformed the legacy controller in time-in-target-range TIR (postprandial and overnight) and time-in-tight-range TTR (overall, postprandial, and overnight).

CONCLUSION

The integration of a novel BPS into an advanced control system allowed to automatically reject unannounced meals. Exhaustive simulation studies indicated the safety and feasibility of the proposed controller to be deployed in human clinical trials.

Advanced Closed-Loop Control System Improves Postprandial Glycemic Control Compared With a Hybrid Closed-Loop System Following Unannounced Meal

OBJECTIVE

Meals are a major hurdle to glycemic control in type 1 diabetes (T1D). Our objective was to test a fully automated closed-loop control (CLC) system in the absence of announcement of carbohydrate ingestion among adolescents with T1D, who are known to commonly omit meal announcement.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Eighteen adolescents with T1D (age 15.6 ± 1.7 years; HbA1c 7.4 ± 1.5%; 9 females/9 males) participated in a randomized crossover clinical trial comparing our legacy hybrid CLC system (Unified Safety System Virginia [USS]-Virginia) with a novel fully automated CLC system (RocketAP) during two 46-h supervised admissions (each with one announced and one unannounced dinner), following 2 weeks of data collection. Primary outcome was the percentage time-in-range 70-180 mg/dL (TIR) following the unannounced meal, with secondary outcomes related to additional continuous glucose monitoring-based metrics.

RESULTS

Both TIR and time-in-tight-range 70-140 mg/dL (TTR) were significantly higher using RocketAP than using USS-Virginia during the 6 h following the unannounced meal (83% [interquartile range 64-93] vs. 53% [40-71]; P = 0.004 and 49% [41-59] vs. 27% [22-36]; P = 0.002, respectively), primarily driven by reduced time-above-range (TAR >180 mg/dL: 17% [1.3-34] vs. 47% [28-60]), with no increase in time-below-range (TBR <70 mg/dL: 0% median for both). RocketAP also improved control following the announced meal (mean difference TBR: -0.7%, TIR: +7%, TTR: +6%), overall (TIR: +5%, TAR: -5%, TTR: +8%), and overnight (TIR: +7%, TTR: +19%, TAR: -5%). RocketAP delivered less insulin overall (78 ± 23 units vs. 85 ± 20 units, P = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

A new fully automated CLC system with automatic prandial dosing was proven to be safe and feasible and outperformed our legacy USS-Virginia in an adolescent population with and without meal announcement.

Anticipation of Historical Exercise Patterns by a Novel Artificial Pancreas System Reduces Hypoglycemia During and After Moderate-Intensity Physical Activity in People with Type 1 Diabetes

Objective: Physical activity is a major challenge to glycemic control for people with type 1 diabetes. Moderate-intensity exercise often leads to steep decreases in blood glucose and hypoglycemia that closed-loop control systems have so far failed to protect against, despite improving glycemic control overall. Research Design and Methods: Fifteen adults with type 1 diabetes (42 ± 13.5 years old; hemoglobin A_1c 6.6% ± 1.0%; 10F/5M) participated in a randomized crossover clinical trial comparing two hybrid closed-loop (HCL) systems, a state-of-the-art hybrid model predictive controller and a modified system designed to anticipate and detect unannounced exercise (APEX), during two 32-h supervised admissions with 45 min of planned moderate activity, following 4 weeks of data collection. Primary outcome was the number of hypoglycemic episodes during exercise. Continuous glucose monitor (CGM)-based metrics and hypoglycemia are also reported across the entire admissions. Results: The APEX system reduced hypoglycemic episodes overall (9 vs. 33; P = 0.02), during exercise (5 vs. 13; P = 0.04), and in the 4 h following (2 vs. 11; P = 0.02). Overall CGM median percent time <70 mg/dL decreased as well (0.3% vs. 1.6%; P = 0.004). This protection was obtained with no significant increase in time >180 mg/dL (18.5% vs. 16.6%, P = 0.15). Overnight control was notable for both systems with no hypoglycemia, median percent in time 70-180 mg/dL at 100% and median percent time 70-140 mg/dL at ∼96% for both. Conclusions: A new closed-loop system capable of anticipating and detecting exercise was proven to be safe and feasible and outperformed a state-of-the-art HCL, reducing participants' exposure to hypoglycemia during and after moderate-intensity physical activity. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03859401.

Mathematical Models of Meal Amount and Timing Variability With Implementation in the Type-1 Diabetes Patient Decision Simulator

BACKGROUND

In type 1 diabetes (T1D) research, in-silico clinical trials (ISCTs) have proven effective in accelerating the development of new therapies. However, published simulators lack a realistic description of some aspects of patient lifestyle which can remarkably affect glucose control. In this paper, we develop a mathematical description of meal carbohydrates (CHO) amount and timing, with the aim to improve the meal generation module in the T1D Patient Decision Simulator (T1D-PDS) published in Vettoretti et al.

METHODS

Data of 32 T1D subjects under free-living conditions for 4874 days were used. Univariate probability density function (PDF) parametric models with different candidate shapes were fitted, individually, against sample distributions of: CHO amounts of breakfast (CHOB), lunch (CHOL), dinner (CHOD), and snack (CHOS); breakfast timing (TB); and time between breakfast-lunch (TBL) and between lunch-dinner (TLD). Furthermore, a support vector machine (SVM) classifier was developed to predict the occurrence of a snack in future fixed-length time windows. Once embedded inside the T1D-PDS, an ISCT was performed.

RESULTS

Resulting PDF models were: gamma (CHOB, CHOS), lognormal (CHOL, TB), loglogistic (CHOD), and generalized-extreme-values (TBL, TLD). The SVM showed a classification accuracy of 0.8 over the test set. The distributions of simulated meal data were not statistically different from the distributions of the real data used to develop the models (α = 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The models of meal amount and timing variability developed are suitable for describing real data. Their inclusion in modules that describe patient behavior in the T1D-PDS can permit investigators to perform more realistic, reliable, and insightful ISCTs.

In Silico Analysis of an Exercise-Safe Artificial Pancreas With Multistage Model Predictive Control and Insulin Safety System

BACKGROUND

Maintaining glycemic equilibrium can be challenging for people living with type 1 diabetes (T1D) as many factors (eg, length, type, duration, insulin on board, stress, and training) will impact the metabolic changes triggered by physical activity potentially leading to both hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia. Therefore, and despite the noted health benefits, many individuals with T1D do not exercise as much as their healthy peers. While technology advances have improved glucose control during and immediately after exercise, it remains one of the key limitations of artificial pancreas (AP) systems, largely because stopping insulin at the onset of exercise may not be enough to prevent impending, exercise-induced hypoglycemia.

METHODS

A hybrid AP algorithm with subject-specific exercise behavior recognition and anticipatory action is designed to prevent hypoglycemic events during and after moderate-intensity exercise. Our approach relies on a number of key innovations, namely, an activity informed premeal bolus calculator, personalized exercise pattern recognition, and a multistage model predictive control (MS-MPC) strategy that can transition between reactive and anticipatory modes. This AP design was evaluated on 100 in silico subjects from the most up-to-date FDA-accepted UVA/Padova metabolic simulator, emulating an outpatient clinical trial setting. Results with a baseline controller, a regular MPC (rMPC), are also included for comparison purposes.

RESULTS

In silico experiments reveal that the proposed MS-MPC strategy markedly reduces the number of exercise-related hypoglycemic events (8 vs 68).

CONCLUSION

An anticipatory mode for insulin administration of a monohormonal AP controller reduces the occurrence of hypoglycemia during moderate-intensity exercise.

Closed-Loop Control with Unannounced Exercise for Adults with Type 1 Diabetes using the Ensemble Model Predictive Control

This paper presents an individualized Ensemble Model Predictive Control (EnMPC) algorithm for blood glucose (BG) stabilization and hypoglycemia prevention in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) who exercise regularly. The EnMPC formulation can be regarded as a simplified multi-stage MPC allowing for the consideration of N _en scenarios gathered from the patient's recent behavior. The patient's physical activity behavior is characterized by an exercise-specific input signal derived from the deconvolution of the patient's continuous glucose monitor (CGM), accounting for known inputs such as meal, and insulin pump records. The EnMPC controller was tested in a cohort of in silico patients with representative inter-subject and intra-subject variability from the FDA-accepted UVA/Padova simulation platform. Results show a significant improvement on hypoglycemia prevention after 30 min of mild to moderate exercise in comparison to a similarly tuned baseline controller (rMPC); with a reduction in hypoglycemia occurrences (< 70 mg/dL), from 3.08% ± 3.55 with rMPC to 0.78% ± 2.04 with EnMPC (P < 0.05).