The left atrium: An overlooked prognostic tool

Prevalence and determinants of atrial fibrillation progression in paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

OBJECTIVE

Atrial fibrillation (AF) often progresses from paroxysmal AF (PAF) to more permanent forms. To improve personalised medicine, we aim to develop a new AF progression risk prediction model in patients with PAF.

METHODS

In this interim-analysis of the Reappraisal of AF: Interaction Between HyperCoagulability, Electrical Remodelling, and Vascular Destabilisation in the Progression of AF study, patients with PAF undergoing extensive phenotyping at baseline and continuous rhythm monitoring during follow-up of ≥1 year were analysed. AF progression was defined as (1) progression to persistent or permanent AF or (2) progression of PAF with >3% burden increase. Multivariable analysis was done to identify predictors of AF progression.

RESULTS

Mean age was 65 (58-71) years, 179 (43%) were female. Follow-up was 2.2 (1.6-2.8) years, 51 of 417 patients (5.5%/year) showed AF progression. Multivariable analysis identified, PR interval, impaired left atrial function, mitral valve regurgitation and waist circumference to be associated with AF progression. Adding blood biomarkers improved the model (C-statistic from 0.709 to 0.830) and showed male sex, lower levels of factor XIIa:C1-esterase inhibitor and tissue factor pathway inhibitor, and higher levels of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 and peptidoglycan recognition protein 1 were associated with AF progression.

CONCLUSION

In patients with PAF, AF progression occurred in 5.5%/year. Predictors for progression included markers for atrial remodelling, sex, mitral valve regurgitation, waist circumference and biomarkers associated with coagulation, inflammation, cardiomyocyte stretch and atherosclerosis. These prediction models may help to determine risk of AF progression and treatment targets, but validation is needed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02726698.

Atrial fibrillation: villain or bystander in vascular brain injury

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and stroke are inextricably connected, with classical Virchow pathophysiology explaining thromboembolism through blood stasis in the fibrillating left atrium. This conceptualization has been reinforced by the remarkable efficacy of oral anticoagulant (OAC) for stroke prevention in AF. A number of observations showing that the presence of AF is neither necessary nor sufficient for stroke, cast doubt on the causal role of AF as a villain in vascular brain injury (VBI). The requirement for additional risk factors before AF increases stroke risk; temporal disconnect of AF from a stroke in patients with no AF for months before stroke during continuous ECG monitoring but manifesting AF only after stroke; and increasing recognition of the role of atrial cardiomyopathy and atrial substrate in AF-related stroke, and also stroke without AF, have led to rethinking the pathogenetic model of cardioembolic stroke. This is quite separate from recognition that in AF, shared cardiovascular risk factors can lead both to non-embolic stroke, or emboli from the aorta and carotid arteries. Meanwhile, VBI is now expanded to include dementia and cognitive decline: research is required to see if reduced by OAC. A changed conceptual model with less focus on the arrhythmia, and more on atrial substrate/cardiomyopathy causing VBI both in the presence or absence of AF, is required to allow us to better prevent AF-related VBI. It could direct focus towards prevention of the atrial cardiomyopathy though much work is required to better define this entity before the balance between AF as villain or bystander can be determined.

Risk Factor Management in Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common clinical arrhythmia and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. There is growing evidence that numerous cardiovascular diseases and risk factors are associated with incident AF and that lone AF is rare. Beyond oral anticoagulant therapy, rate and rhythm control, therapy targeting risk factors and underlying conditions is an emerging AF management strategy that warrants better implementation in clinical practice. This review describes current evidence regarding the association between known modifiable risk factors and underlying conditions and the development and progression of AF. It discusses evidence for the early management of underlying conditions to improve AF outcomes. It also provides perspective on the implementation of tailored AF management in daily clinical practice.