The ratio of fasting plasma glucose to hemoglobin A1c as a predictor of all-cause mortality in individuals with normal glucose levels: The Jichi Medical School cohort study

Optimal glucose, HbA1c, glucose-HbA1c ratio and stress-hyperglycaemia ratio cut-off values for predicting 1-year mortality in diabetic and non-diabetic acute myocardial infarction patients

Background

Stress-induced hyperglycaemia at time of hospital admission has been linked to worse prognosis following acute myocardial infarction (AMI). In addition to glucose, other glucose-related indices, such as HbA1c, glucose-HbA1c ratio (GHR), and stress-hyperglycaemia ratio (SHR) are potential predictors of clinical outcomes following AMI. However, the optimal blood glucose, HbA1c, GHR, and SHR cut-off values for predicting adverse outcomes post-AMI are unknown. As such, we determined the optimal blood glucose, HbA1c, GHR, and SHR cut-off values for predicting 1-year all cause mortality in diabetic and non-diabetic ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients.

Methods

We undertook a national, registry-based study of patients with AMI from January 2008 to December 2015. We determined the optimal blood glucose, HbA1c, GHR, and SHR cut-off values using the Youden’s formula for 1-year all-cause mortality. We subsequently analyzed the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the cut-off values in the diabetic and non-diabetic subgroups, stratified by the type of AMI.

Results

There were 5841 STEMI and 4105 NSTEMI in the study. In STEMI patients, glucose, GHR, and SHR were independent predictors of 1-year all-cause mortality [glucose: OR 2.19 (95% CI 1.74–2.76); GHR: OR 2.28 (95% CI 1.80–2.89); SHR: OR 2.20 (95% CI 1.73–2.79)]. However, in NSTEMI patients, glucose and HbA1c were independently associated with 1-year all-cause mortality [glucose: OR 1.38 (95% CI 1.01–1.90); HbA1c: OR 2.11 (95% CI 1.15–3.88)]. In diabetic STEMI patients, SHR performed the best in terms of area-under-the-curve (AUC) analysis (glucose: AUC 63.3%, 95% CI 59.5–67.2; GHR 68.8% 95% CI 64.8–72.8; SHR: AUC 69.3%, 95% CI 65.4–73.2). However, in non-diabetic STEMI patients, glucose, GHR, and SHR performed equally well (glucose: AUC 72.0%, 95% CI 67.7–76.3; GHR 71.9% 95% CI 67.7–76.2; SHR: AUC 71.7%, 95% CI 67.4–76.0). In NSTEMI patients, glucose performed better than HbA1c for both diabetic and non-diabetic patients in AUC analysis (For diabetic, glucose: AUC 52.8%, 95% CI 48.1–57.6; HbA1c: AUC 42.5%, 95% CI 37.6–47. For non-diabetic, glucose: AUC 62.0%, 95% CI 54.1–70.0; HbA1c: AUC 51.1%, 95% CI 43.3–58.9). The optimal cut-off values for glucose, GHR, and SHR in STEMI patients were 15.0 mmol/L, 2.11, and 1.68 for diabetic and 10.6 mmol/L, 1.72, and 1.51 for non-diabetic patients respectively. For NSTEMI patients, the optimal glucose values were 10.7 mmol/L for diabetic and 8.1 mmol/L for non-diabetic patients.

Conclusions

SHR was the most consistent independent predictor of 1-year all-cause mortality in both diabetic and non-diabetic STEMI, whereas glucose was the best predictor in NSTEMI patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-021-01395-3.

Fasting glucose level and all-cause or cause-specific mortality in Korean adults: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Although people with diabetes have been shown to have higher mortality than people without diabetes, there is a lack of data on the association between fasting glucose (FG) levels and cause-specific mortality rates in the general population.

METHODS

A total of 326,547 Korean adults over 20 years of age, who had received a health checkup between 2006 and 2008 were selected from the Korean National Health Insurance Service sample cohort dataset and followed until 2015. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality relative to various range of FG levels. All causes of death were classified according to International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes.

RESULTS

During follow-up (mean, 8.5 years), a total of 13,536 deaths (mortality rate 4.89/1,000 person-year) occurred; 4,916 deaths from cancer, 2,133 from cardiovascular disease, 762 from infectious disease, 199 from renal disease, and 5,526 from other causes. The overall mortality rate increased with an increase in FG category (HR, 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.65 to 1.92; in the ≥ 160 mg/dL). In addition, a J-shaped associations was found between FG levels and all-cause mortality after adjustment for age, sex, smoking, drinking, physical activity, body mass index, diabetes mellitus medication, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. In particular, the risk of cancer-mortality with high FG levels was increased for men but not women.

CONCLUSION

The risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality showed the tendency to increase when the FG level was outside of the normal range, indicating a J-shaped relationship, in both men and women.