Risk Factors of Postoperative Delirium in Elderly Patients With Intertrochanteric Fracture: An Age-Stratified Retrospective Analysis of 2307 Patients

Development and validation of models for predicting mortality in intertrochanteric fracture surgery patients with perioperative blood transfusion: a prospective multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND

The association between allogenic blood transfusions and all-cause mortality in surgically treated hip fracture patients with perioperative transfusion (STHFPT) remained unknown. The authors aim to introduce transfusion-related factors, new variables to develop, and validate models to predict mortality in these patients.

METHODS

A prospective multicenter cohort study was conducted with STHFPT hospitalized during January 2018 and June 2021. The database was divided into training cohort and validation cohort in a ratio of 70-30% using the randomization method. All participants received a minimum of 2-year follow-up and all participants' overall and eight time-specific survival status were recorded. Prediction models were developed using multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression for variable selection. Model performance was measured by determining discrimination, calibration, overall model performance or precision, and utility. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test robustness of the results.

RESULTS

A total of 7074 consecutive patients were prospectively screened and assessed for eligibility to participate. Finally, 2490 patients met our inclusion and exclusion criteria and 1743 (70%) patients were randomized to the training cohort and 747 (30%) to the validation cohort. The median duration of follow-up was 38.4 months (IQR 28.0-62.0). Our novel models highlight that preoperative transfusion is of significance for short-term mortality while mid-term outcomes are predominantly determined by severe complications, pulmonary complications, and advanced age. Our models showed high discriminative power, good calibration, and precision for mortality prediction in both training and validation cohorts, especially in short-term mortality prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

The authors introduce transfusion-related factors, new variables to develop, and validate models to predict mortality with STHFPT. The models can be further tested and updated with the ultimate goal of assisting in optimizing individual transfusion strategy.

Risk factors and a nomogram model for postoperative delirium in elderly gastric cancer patients after laparoscopic gastrectomy

Background

To evaluate the risk factors of postoperative delirium (POD) in elderly gastric cancer (GC) patients after laparoscopic gastrectomy and construct a predictive model.

Methods

Elderly GC patients undergoing laparoscopic gastrectomy were enrolled and grouped based on the status of POD development within postoperative 7 days. Independent risk factors were selected out by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and then enrolled in the nomogram prediction model.

Results

A total of 270 elderly GC patients were enrolled, and POD occurred in 74 (27.4%) patients within postoperative 7 days. The results of multivariate regression analysis indicated that age (OR: 3.30, 95% CI: 1.41–6.85, P < 0.001), sleeping pills (OR: 1.87, 95% CI: 1.12–3.09, P = 0.012), duration of ICU stay (OR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.02–2.37, P = 0.029), albumin/fibrinogen ratio (AFR) (OR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.03–2.76, P = 0.019), and neutrophils/lymphocytes ratio (NLR) (OR: 2.12, 95% CI: 1.11–4.01, P = 0.016) were five independent risk factors for POD in elderly GC patients. The AUC of the constructed nomogram model based on these five factors was 0.807.

Conclusions

This study highlighted that age, AFR, NLR, sleeping pills taking, and duration of ICU stay were independent risk factors for POD, and the nomogram model based on these factors could effectively predict POD in elderly GC patients.