Narrative Review of Predictive Analytics of Patient-Reported Outcomes in Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery

Assessment of the External Validity of Dialogue Support for Predicting Lumbar Spine Surgery Outcomes in a US Cohort

STUDY DESIGN

External validation using prospectively collected data.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the model performance of "Dialogue Support" (DS) in predicting outcomes after lumbar spine surgery.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

To help clinicians discuss risk versus benefit with patients considering lumbar fusion surgery, DS has been made available online. As DS was created using a Swedish sample, there is a need to study how well DS performs in alternative populations.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Preoperative data from patients enrolled in the Quality Outcomes Database were entered into DS. The probability for each patient to report satisfaction, achieve success (leg pain improvement ≥3), or have no leg pain 12 months after surgery was extracted and compared with their actual 12-month postoperative data. The ability of DS to identify patients in the Quality Outcomes Database who report satisfaction, achieve success, or have no leg pain 12 months after surgery was determined using Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, goodness-of-fit tests, and calibration plots.

RESULTS

There was a significant improvement in all outcomes in 23,928 cases included in the analysis from baseline to 12 months postoperative. Most (84%) reported satisfaction, 67% achieved success, and 44% were pain-free 12 months postoperative. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that DS had a low ability to predict satisfaction [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.606], success (AUC = 0.546), and being pain-free (AUC = 0.578) at 12 months postoperative; poor fit for satisfaction (<0.001) and being pain-free ( P = 0.004), but acceptable fit for success ( P = 0.052). Calibration plots showed underestimation for satisfaction and success, but acceptable estimates for being pain-free.

CONCLUSION

DS is not directly transferable to predict satisfaction and success after lumbar surgery in a US population. This may be due to differences in patient characteristics, weights of the variables included, or the exclusion of unknown variables associated with outcomes. Future studies to better understand and improve the transferability of these models are needed.

Development and validation of a point-of-care clinical risk score to predict surgical site complication-associated readmissions following open spine surgery

Background

Surgical site complications (SSCs) contribute to increased healthcare costs. Predictive analytics can aid in identifying high-risk patients and implementing optimization strategies. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk-assessment score for SSC-associated readmissions (SSC-ARs) in patients undergoing open spine surgery.

Methods

The Premier Healthcare Database (PHD) of adult patients (n=157,664; 3,182 SSC-ARs) between January 2019 and September 2020 was used for retrospective data analysis to create an SSC risk score using mixed effects logistic regression modeling. Full and reduced models were developed using patient-, facility-, or procedure-related predictors. The full model used 37 predictors and the reduced used 19.

Results

The reduced model exhibited fair discriminatory capability (C-statistic =74.12%) and demonstrated better model fit [Pearson chi-square/degrees of freedom (DF) =0.93] compared to the full model (C-statistic =74.56%; Pearson chi-square/DF =0.92). The risk scoring system, based on the reduced model, comprised the following factors: female (1 point), blood disorder [2], congestive heart failure [2], dementia [3], chronic pulmonary disease [2], rheumatic disease [3], hypertension [2], obesity [2], severe comorbidity [2], nicotine dependence [1], liver disease [2], paraplegia and hemiplegia [3], peripheral vascular disease [2], renal disease [2], cancer [1], diabetes [2], revision surgery [2], operative hours ≥5 [4], emergency/urgent surgery [2]. A final risk score (sum of the points for each surgery; range, 0-40) was validated using a 1,000-surgery random hold-out sample (C-statistic =85.16%).

Conclusions

The resulting SSC-AR risk score, composed of readily obtainable clinical information, could serve as a robust predictive tool for unplanned readmissions related to wound complications in the preoperative setting of open spine surgery.

Development and validation of a point-of-care clinical risk score to predict surgical site infection following open spinal fusion

Background

Surgical site infection (SSI) after open spine surgery increases healthcare costs and patient morbidity. Predictive analytics using large databases can be used to develop prediction tools to aid surgeons in identifying high-risk patients and strategies for optimization. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate an SSI risk-assessment score for patients undergoing open spine surgery.

Methods

The Premier Healthcare Database of adult open spine surgery patients (n = 157,664; 2,650 SSIs) was used to create an SSI risk scoring system using mixed effects logistic regression modeling. Full and reduced multilevel logistic regression models were developed using patient, surgery or facility predictors. The full model used 38 predictors and the reduced used 16 predictors. The resulting risk score was the sum of points assigned to 16 predictors.

Results

The reduced model showed good discriminatory capability (C-statistic = 0.75) and good fit of the model ([Pearson Chi-square/DF] = 0.90, CAIC=25,517) compared to the full model (C-statistic = 0.75, [Pearson Chi-square/DF] =0.90, CAIC=25,578). The risk scoring system, based on the reduced model, included the following: female (5 points), hypertension (4), blood disorder (8), peripheral vascular disease (9), chronic pulmonary disease (6), rheumatic disease (16), obesity (12), nicotine dependence (5), Charlson Comorbidity Index (2 per point), revision surgery (14), number of ICD-10 procedures (1 per procedure), operative time (1 per hour), and emergency/urgent surgery (12). A final risk score as the sum of the points for each surgery was validated using a 1,000-surgery random hold-out (independent from the study cohort) sample (C-statistic = 0.77).

Conclusions

The resulting SSI risk score composed of readily obtainable clinical information could serve as a strong prediction tool for SSI in preoperative settings when open spine surgery is considered.

Emerging Technologies in the Treatment of Adult Spinal Deformity

Outcomes for adult spinal deformity continue to improve as new technologies become integrated into clinical practice. Machine learning, robot-guided spinal surgery, and patient-specific rods are tools that are being used to improve preoperative planning and patient satisfaction. Machine learning can be used to predict complications, readmissions, and generate postoperative radiographs which can be shown to patients to guide discussions about surgery. Robot-guided spinal surgery is a rapidly growing field showing signs of greater accuracy in screw placement during surgery. Patient-specific rods offer improved outcomes through higher correction rates and decreased rates of rod breakage while decreasing operative time. The objective of this review is to evaluate trends in the literature about machine learning, robot-guided spinal surgery, and patient-specific rods in the treatment of adult spinal deformity.