Predicting risk of AF in ischaemic stroke using sinus rhythm ECG abnormalities: A meta-analysis

[MVP Risk score and new atrial fibrillation diagnosis: Prospective cohort PREFATE study]

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between electrocardiogram (ECG) patterns according to the MVP ECG risk score (morphology-voltage-P-wave duration) and a diagnosis of Atrial Fibrillation (AF).

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study (1/01/2023-31/12/2024). SITE: Primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

Randomized sample of 150 patients aged 65-85 years without prior diagnosis of AF, stroke, or current anticoagulant treatment; high risk of future AF; CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2; and ability to use the FibricheckR application (App).

MEASUREMENTS

At baseline, a standard ECG, MVP risk score assessment, and cardiac rhythm monitoring for 15 days using the FibricheckR App were performed. The dependent variables were the presence of P-wave patterns on the electrocardiogram according to MVP risk score and a new diagnosis of AF.

RESULTS

The diagnosis of AF was confirmed in 14 cases (9.3%, 95% CI 5.6-15.1), 3 men and 11 women. In 3 cases, the arrhythmia was diagnosed on the baseline ECG, and in 11 cases by Holter after being reported as possible AF by the FibricheckR App. A higher prevalence of atypical advanced interatrial block (A-AIB) (p 0.007) was detected among participants with AF, as well as the prevalence of P-wave <0.1mV. (p=0.006). All new diagnoses of AF were made at scores ≥4 in the MVP risk score.

CONCLUSIONS

Using scales for identifying ECG patterns in high-risk subjects in primary care can facilitate the diagnosis of unknown AF.

Protocol for a multicentre and prospective follow-up cohort study of early detection of atrial fibrillation, silent stroke and cognitive impairment in high-risk primary care patients: the PREFA-TE study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of cardiac arrhythmia. Future estimations suggest an increase in global burden of AF greater than 60% by 2050. Numerous studies provide growing evidence that AF is not only associated with stroke but also with cognitive impairment and dementia.

AIM

The main goal is to assess the impact of the combined use of cardiac rhythm monitoring devices, echocardiography, biomarkers and neuroimaging on the early diagnosis of AF, silent strokes and cognitive decline, in subjects at high risk of AF.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Two-year follow-up of a cohort of individuals aged 65-85 years at high risk for AF, with no prior diagnosis of either stroke or dementia. The study involves baseline echocardiography, biomarkers, and neuroimaging, yearly cardiac monitoring, and semiannual clinical assessments. Different parameters from these tests will be analysed as independent variables. Throughout the study period, primary outcomes: new diagnoses of AF, stroke and cognitive impairment, along with any clinical and therapeutic changes, will be registered. A first descriptive and bivariate statistical analysis, appropriate to the types of variables, will be done. The information obtained from the data analysis will encompass adjusted risk estimates along with 95% confidence intervals. Event risk predictions will rely on multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models. The predictive value of the model will be evaluated through the utilisation of receiver operating characteristic curves for area under the curve calculation. Additionally, time-to-event analysis will be performed using Kaplan-Meier curves.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study protocol has been reviewed and approved by the Independent Ethics Committee of the Foundation University Institute for Primary Health Care Research-IDIAP Jordi Gol (expedient file 22/090-P). The authors plan to disseminate the study results to the general public through various scientific events. Publication in open-access journals and presentations at scientific congresses, seminars and meetings is also foreseen.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05772806.