Risk of repeated febrile episodes during chemotherapy-induced granulocytopenia in children with cancer: a prospective single center study

Systematic review of methods used in prediction models with recurrent event data

BACKGROUND

Patients who suffer from chronic conditions or diseases are susceptible to experiencing repeated events of the same type (e.g. seizures), termed 'recurrent events'. Prediction models can be used to predict the risk of recurrence so that intervention or management can be tailored accordingly, but statistical methodology can vary. The objective of this systematic review was to identify and describe statistical approaches that have been applied for the development and validation of multivariable prediction models with recurrent event data. A secondary objective was to informally assess the characteristics and quality of analysis approaches used in the development and validation of prediction models of recurrent event data.

METHODS

Searches were run in MEDLINE using a search strategy in 2019 which included index terms and phrases related to recurrent events and prediction models. For studies to be included in the review they must have developed or validated a multivariable clinical prediction model for recurrent event outcome data, specifically modelling the recurrent events and the timing between them. The statistical analysis methods used to analyse the recurrent event data in the clinical prediction model were extracted to answer the primary aim of the systematic review. In addition, items such as the event rate as well as any discrimination and calibration statistics that were used to assess the model performance were extracted for the secondary aim of the review.

RESULTS

A total of 855 publications were identified using the developed search strategy and 301 of these are included in our systematic review. The Andersen-Gill method was identified as the most commonly applied method in the analysis of recurrent events, which was used in 152 (50.5%) studies. This was closely followed by frailty models which were used in 116 (38.5%) included studies. Of the 301 included studies, only 75 (24.9%) internally validated their model(s) and three (1.0%) validated their model(s) in an external dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

This review identified a variety of methods which are used in practice when developing or validating prediction models for recurrent events. The variability of the approaches identified is cause for concern as it indicates possible immaturity in the field and highlights the need for more methodological research to bring greater consistency in approach of recurrent event analysis. Further work is required to ensure publications report all required information and use robust statistical methods for model development and validation.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION

CRD42019116031.

Identifying Risk Factors and Improving Preventive Strategies for Febrile Neutropenia in Children with Leukemia Receiving Ciprofloxacin Prophylaxis

The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors and improve preventive strategies for febrile neutropenia (FEN) in children with leukemia who were receiving ciprofloxacin prophylaxis. The study included 100 children with leukemia [n=80 with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and n=20 with acute myeloblastic leukemia (AML)]. Patients were divided into two groups based on whether they had three or fewer FEN episodes (Group 1) or more than three FEN episodes (Group 2). Group 1 contained 63 (63%) of the 100 patients, while Group 2 contained 37 (37%). Older age (≥7 years), leukemia type, prolonged neutropenia (>10 days), and the presence of neutropenia and hypogammaglobulinemia at diagnosis were all risk factors for having more than three FEN episodes. Our findings suggest that, in addition to ciprofloxacin prophylaxis, identifying risk factors and improving preventive strategies could help reduce FEN episodes in children with leukemia.

Infectious Morbidity in Pediatric Patients Receiving Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Sarcoma

Simple Summary

Infections are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in childhood cancer treatment. The aim of our retrospective study was to assess the infectious burden in pediatric sarcoma patients during neoadjuvant chemotherapy administered according to the EWING 2008, CWS SoTiSaR and EURAMOS clinical trial or registry. Our analyses indicate a substantial infectious morbidity in this group of patients, with 58.8% experiencing at least one episode of febrile neutropenia (FN) and 20.6% at least one microbiologically documented infection (MDI). We also identified parameters that impact on the occurrence of FN and MDIs, including treatment protocol, patient age, and mucositis. These findings may contribute to a better risk stratification for prevention and management of FN and infections as well as for maintaining quality of life, cost control, and optimum outcomes of anticancer treatment.

Abstract

The purpose of this retrospective, single-center cohort study was to assess the infectious burden in pediatric sarcoma patients during neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The review included all patients with a new diagnosis of Ewing sarcoma, osteosarcoma or soft tissue sarcoma between September 2009 and December 2018 who were enrolled in the EWING 2008, CWS SoTiSaR and EURAMOS clinical trial or registry. Primary endpoints were the occurrence of febrile neutropenia (FN) and microbiologically documented infection (MDI). Parameters with a potential impact on FN and MDI were also analyzed. A total of 170 sarcoma patients (median age: 13 years, range: 0–21; 96 m/74 f) received 948 chemotherapy courses (median: 6; range: 2–8). Of these patients, 58.8% had ≥1 FN episode and 20.6% ≥ 1 MDI. FN occurred in 272/948 courses (28.7%) with fever of unknown origin (FUO) in 231 courses and 45 MDI and 19 clinically documented infections (CDI) occurring in a total of 57 courses. Patients enrolled in EWING 2008 had significantly more FN (p < 0.001), infections (p = 0.02) and MDI (p = 0.035). No infection-related deaths were observed. Younger age, tumor type and localization, and higher median and maximum mucositis grades were significantly associated with higher numbers of FN (p < 0.001), and younger age (p = 0.024) and higher median mucositis grade (p = 0.017) with MDI. The study shows substantial infectious morbidity in sarcoma patients during neoadjuvant chemotherapy treatment and opportunities to improve prevention and management.

Risk factors for bacteremia in children with febrile neutropenia

Background/aim

Bacteremia remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality during febrile neutropenia (FN) episodes. We aimed to define the risk factors for bacteremia in febrile neutropenic children with hemato-oncological malignancies.

Materials and methods

The records of 150 patients aged ≤18 years who developed FN in hematology and oncology clinics were retrospectively evaluated. Patients with bacteremia were compared to patients with negative blood cultures.

Results

The mean age of the patients was 7.5 ± 4.8 years. Leukemia was more prevalent than solid tumors (61.3% vs. 38.7%). Bacteremia was present in 23.3% of the patients. Coagulase-negative staphylococci were the most frequently isolated microorganism. Leukopenia, severe neutropenia, positive peripheral blood and central line cultures during the previous 3 months, presence of a central line, previous FN episode(s), hypotension, tachycardia, and tachypnea were found to be risk factors for bacteremia. Positive central line cultures during the previous 3 months and presence of previous FN episode(s) were shown to increase bacteremia risk by 2.4-fold and 2.5-fold, respectively.

Conclusion

Presence of a bacterial growth in central line cultures during the previous 3 months and presence of any previous FN episode(s) were shown to increase bacteremia risk by 2.4-fold and 2.5-fold, respectively. These factors can predict bacteremia in children with FN.

Antibiotic prophylaxis in neutropenic children with acute leukemia: Do the presently available data really support this practice?

Antibiotics are frequently administered for prophylaxis of fever in neutropenic children with cancer. This strategy is mainly derived from adults' data, and various pediatric studies evidenced the effectiveness of antibiotics (eg, fluoroquinolones) in the prevention of febrile neutropenia. However, only two pediatric randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials have been performed, with a total of 262 leukemic children enrolled, and no other one was ever powered for analyzing effectiveness over other infectious complications. In an era of increasing antibiotic resistance, the widespread use of antibiotic prophylaxis in neutropenic leukemic children needs to be strongly supported.

Performance of 1,3-β-D-glucan for diagnosing invasive fungal diseases in children

Plasma 1,3-β-D-glucan (BDG) is indicated as a tool for early diagnosis of invasive fungal diseases (IFD). However, data on its diagnostic value are scarce in children. Therefore, definition of BDG test performance in paediatrics is needed. BDG was evaluated in children admitted to "Istituto Giannina Gaslini," Genoa, Italy, who developed clinical conditions at risk for IFD. Results were analysed for sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios, accuracy, informedness and probability of missing one case by a negative test. A total of 1577 BDG determinations were performed on 255 patients (49% males, median age 5.4 years). Overall 46 IFD were diagnosed, 72% proven/probable. The test performance was evaluated for 80 pg/mL, 120 pg/mL, 200 pg/mL, 350 pg/mL, 400 pg/mL cut offs. Sensitivity was always <0.80 and specificity > 0.90 only for cut offs ≥200 pg/mL. Negative predictive value was ≥0.90 for all the cut offs evaluated, while positive predictive value resulted barely 0.50 (8% IFD prevalence). Accuracy was never >0.90, and informedness was at best 0.50. The risk of missing one IFD by a negative result was < 10%. Analyses in haemato-oncological or newborn patients did not show major differences. Detection of serum BDG does not appear a valuable adjunctive diagnostic tool for IFD in paediatrics.

The role of prophylaxis of bacterial infections in children with acute leukemia/non-hodgkin lymphoma

Infections represent a well-known complication of antineoplastic chemotherapy that may cause delay of treatment, with alteration of the antineoplastic program and dose-intensity, or even the death of a patient that could heal from his/her neoplasia. Bacterial infections are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients who are neutropenic following chemotherapy for malignancy. Therefore a program of antibiotic prophylaxis for febrile neutropenia may be considered in the management strategy of cancer patients.

Antibiotic prophylaxis in children with cancer or who have undergone hematopoietic cell transplantation

Bacterial infections are common in children with cancer and can lead to life-threatening complications. Infections in these patients mainly occur during neutropenic periods, and may be caused by Gram-positive or Gram-negative bacteria. The patients at highest risk of serious infections include those with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) or acute myeloid leukemia (AML), and those undergoing myeloablative hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). This is a review with the main aim of making a critical appraisal of the literature, and summarising what is currently known and can be recommended. The most significant studies support the use of floroquinolones (mainly ciprofloxacin) as the most rational approach to treat pediatric patients with probably long-lasting neutropenia, although trimetoprim-sulphametoxazole and amoxicillin/clavulanate may theoretically be valid alternatives. No prophylaxis seems to be needed for children with cancer without severe neutropenia. However, a global evaluation of the studies of antibiotic prophylaxis in children with cancer indicates that there are not enough data to prepare definite guidelines for its use or avoidance in pediatric oncology, and so further studies are needed. It is not only important to define the best antibiotic regimens for the children in whom such prophylaxis is useful, but also to identify precisely those who do not need it. This would avoid the antibiotic misuse that probably occurs at the moment because many low-risk children with cancer are treated. As prophylaxis against infections requires long-term adherence to an antibiotic regimen, the attitudes and beliefs of stakeholders need to be fully considered.