Guidelines for colorectal cancer screening--a puzzle of tests and strategies

Prediction and analysis of albumin-bilirubin score combined with liver function index and carcinoembryonic antigen on liver metastasis of colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common malignant tumor, and liver metastasis is one of the main recurrence and metastasis modes that seriously affect patients’ survival rate and quality of life. Indicators such as albumin bilirubin (ALBI) score, liver function index, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) have shown some potential in the prediction of liver metastasis but have not been fully explored.

AIM

To evaluate its predictive value for liver metastasis of CRC by conducting the combined analysis of ALBI, liver function index, and CEA, and to provide a more accurate liver metastasis risk assessment tool for clinical treatment guidance.

METHODS

This study retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of patients with CRC who received surgical treatment in our hospital from January 2018 to July 2023 and were followed up for 24 months. According to the follow-up results, the enrolled patients were divided into a liver metastasis group and a nonliver metastasis group and randomly divided into a modeling group and a verification group at a ratio of 2:1. The risk factors for liver metastasis in patients with CRC were analyzed, a prediction model was constructed by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression, internal validation was performed by the bootstrap method, the reliability of the prediction model was evaluated by subject-work characteristic curves, calibration curves, and clinical decision curves, and a column graph was drawn to show the prediction results.

RESULTS

Of 130 patients were enrolled in the modeling group and 65 patients were enrolled in the verification group out of the 195 patients with CRC who fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Through LASSO regression variable screening and logistic regression analysis. The ALBI score, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and CEA were found to be independent predictors of liver metastases in CRC patients [odds ratio (OR) = 8.062, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.545-25.540], (OR = 1.037, 95%CI: 1.004-1.071) and (OR = 1.025, 95%CI: 1.008-1.043). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the combined prediction of CRLM in the modeling group was 0.921, with a sensitivity of 78.0% and a specificity of 95.0%. The H-index was 0.921, and the H-L fit curve had χ² = 0.851, a P value of 0.654, and a slope of the calibration curve approaching 1. This indicates that the model is extremely accurate, and the clinical decision curve demonstrates that it can be applied effectively in the real world. We conducted internal verification of one thousand resamplings of the modeling group data using the bootstrap method. The AUC was 0.913, while the accuracy was 0.869 and the kappa consistency was 0.709. The combination prediction of liver metastasis in patients with CRC in the verification group had an AUC of 0.918, sensitivity of 85.0%, specificity of 95.6%, C-index of 0.918, and an H-L fitting curve with χ² = 0.586, P = 0.746.

CONCLUSION

The ALBI score, ALT level, and CEA level have a certain value in predicting liver metastasis in patients with CRC. These three criteria exhibit a high level of efficacy in forecasting liver metastases in patients diagnosed with CRC. The risk prediction model developed in this work shows great potential for practical application.

Effect of type 2 diabetes on risk for malignancies includes hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C

The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to assess the cumulative development incidence and predictive factors for malignancies after the termination of interferon (IFN) therapy in Japanese patients for hepatitis C virus (HCV). A total of 4,302 HCV-positive patients treated with IFN were enrolled. The mean observation period was 8.1 years. The primary outcome was the first onset of malignancies. Evaluation was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard analysis. A total of 606 patients developed malignancies: 393 developed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 213 developed malignancies other than HCC. The cumulative development rate of HCC was 4.3% at 5 years, 10.5% at 10 years, and 19.7% at 15 years. HCC occurred significantly (P<0.05) when the following characteristics were present: advanced histological staging, sustained virological response not achieved, male sex, advanced age of ≥50 years, total alcohol intake of ≥200 kg, and presence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). T2DM caused a 1.73-fold enhancement in HCC development. In patients with T2DM, HCC decreased when patients had a mean hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level of <7.0% during follow-up (hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.89; P=0.015). The cumulative development rate of malignancy other than HCC was 2.4% at 5 years, 5.1% at 10 years, and 9.8% at 15 years. Malignancies other than HCC occurred significantly when patients were of advanced age of ≤50 years, smoking index (package per day×year) was ≥20, and T2DM was present. T2DM caused a 1.70-fold enhancement in the development of malignancies other than HCC.

CONCLUSION

T2DM causes an approximately 1.7-fold enhancement in the development of HCC and malignancies other than HCC in HCV-positive patients treated with IFN. In T2DM patients, maintaining a mean HbA1c level of <7.0% reduces the development of HCC.

Difference in malignancies of chronic liver disease due to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease or hepatitis C in Japanese elderly patients

AIM

  Malignancies that include hepatocellular carcinoma often occurred in patients with chronic liver disease. The aim of this retrospective match control study was to assess the cumulative development incidence and predictive factors for total malignancies in elderly Japanese patients with non-alcoholic hepatic diseases (NAFLD) or hepatitis C virus (HCV).

METHODS

  A total of 1600 NAFLD patients with age of ≥60 years were enrolled, and 1600 HCV patients with age of ≥60 years were selected as control by matching 1:1 with NAFLD group for age, sex, and follow-up period. The primary goal is the first development of malignancies. Evaluation was performed by the use of the Wilcoxon rank sum test, the Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox proportional hazard model. The mean observation period is 8.2 years in both NAFLD and HCV group, respectively.

RESULTS

  The number of patients with the development of malignancies was 167 in the NAFLD group and 395 in the HCV group. The 10th development rate of malignancies was 13.9% in the NAFLD group and 28.2% in the HCV group (risk ratio 2.27; P < 0.001). The incident rates of hepatocellular carcinoma in all the malignancies were 6.0% (10/167) in the NAFLD group and 67.6% (267/395) in the HCV group (P < 0.001). The malignancies in the NAFLD group were observed in the following order: gastric cancer 34 cases (20.4%) > colon cancer 31 cases (18.6%) > prostate cancer 21 cases (12.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

  The incident rates of hepatocellular carcinoma in all the malignancies were approximately 6% in the NAFLD group and two-thirds in the HCV group.

Comparison of various strategies for colorectal cancer screening tests

INTRODUCTION

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most serious health problems worldwide and thus it is important to assess health and economic impacts of preventative CRC screening strategies.

METHODS

For this reason, a theoretical model based on Markov chains is proposed to compare these strategies: fecal occult blood test, capsule endoscopy, once-life and twice-life colonoscopy, and no screening. The model predicts the health state of a population of individuals aged from 50 to 75 years.

RESULTS

The numerical results show that the optimal timing for a once-lifetime colonoscopy screening method is before the age of 50 and that the twice-lifetime colonoscopy is the best screening strategy with respect to CRC incidence. In contrast, it is the most expensive one if the CRC treatment costs are not included. The model predicts that there is a minimal CRC incidence in the population when the second colonoscopy is appropriately timed. By using specific data, this age was found to be 59 years.

CONCLUSION

The screening strategies probably save expenses on the treatment of the population and at the same time decreases mortality. Optimized twice-lifetime colonoscopy seems to be the most efficient strategy with respect to mortality and overall costs including subsequent treatment.