A prognostic model (BATAP) with external validation for patients with transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy

Age, GVHD prophylaxis, and timing matter in thrombotic microangiopathy after haematopoietic cell transplantation-A secondary CIBMTR analysis

Most reports of risk factors (RF) for developing transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA) and death are derived from paediatric and young adult cohorts, with minimal data on differences in RF and outcomes by age. In this secondary CIBMTR analysis, we used a previously prepared dataset that included all first allogenic haematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) recipients with malignant or non-malignant diseases between 2008 and 2016. The incidence of TA-TMA 6 months post HCT was similar in children and adults 2.1% and 2.0% respectively. Grade 2-4 acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) was a significant adjusted RF for developing TA-TMA in both children and adults. In adults, additional adjusted RFs for TA-TMA included female sex and black race, and in children an unrelated donor. Compared to a calcineurin inhibitor and sirolimus, other forms of GVHD prophylaxis had an adjusted decreased risk of developing TA-TMA in adults. Adjusted RF for death in those with TA-TMA (n = 652) included age ≥18 years old, early onset of TA-TMA diagnosis (<100 days post HCT), grade 3-4 aGVHD and a performance score of <90 prior to HCT. In this cohort, the incidence of TA-TMA was similar in children and adults, and TA-TMA timing was a newly identified RF for death.

A prognostic score system in adult T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

Adult T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) is highly aggressive with poor prognoses, while hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a curable option. However, no transplant-specific prognostic model for adult T-ALL is available. We identified 301 adult T-ALL patients who received HSCT at our hospital between 2010 and 2022. These patients were randomly assigned at a 7:3 ratio to a derivation group of 210 patients and a validation group of 91 patients. Next, we developed a prognostic risk score system for adult T-ALL with HSCT, which we named COMM, including 4 predictors (central nervous system involvement, Non-CR1 (CR2+ or NR) at HSCT, minimal residual disease (MRD) ≥ 0.01% after first induction therapy, and MRD ≥ 0.01% before HSCT). Patients were categorized into three risk groups, low-risk (0), intermediate-risk (1-4), and high-risk (5-12), and their 3-year overall survival (OS) were 87.5% (95%CI, 78-93%), 65.7% (95%CI, 53-76%) and 20% (95%CI, 10-20%; P < 0.001), respectively. The area under the subject operating characteristic curve for 2-, 3- or 5-year OS in the derivation cohort and in the validation cohort were all greater than 0.75. Based on internal validation, COMM score system proved to be a reliable prognostic model that could discriminate and calibrate well. We expect that the first prognostic model in adults T-ALL after HSCT can provide a reference of prognostic consultation for patients and families, and also contribute to future research to develop risk adapted interventions for high-risk populations.

A predictive model of herpes zoster after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: VZV reactivation following antiviral prophylaxis discontinuation

Herpes zoster (HZ) refers to the rash appearing on dermatomes due to varicella zoster virus (VZV) reactivation. The incidence of HZ is significantly higher in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) recipients than in non-HSCT recipients. Although acyclovir prophylaxis is routinely administered to every allo-HSCT recipient for 1 year after transplantation, some individuals eventually develop late-onset HZ after completing prophylaxis. Little information is known about the clinical features of HZ after prophylactic antiviral treatment discontinuation, and an effective predictive model of late-onset HZ needs to be established. A total of 3366 patients who had received allo-HSCT from 2012 to 2017 were included in our study, among whom 201 developed HZ after 1 year (late-onset HZ). We designed a nested case-control study to identify potential predictors of late-onset HZ. Finally, we established a predictive model using binary logistic regression analysis. Age (p < .001), use of immunosuppressants at +1 year (p < .001), CD4-CD8 ratio at +1 year (p < .001), certain mental disorders (depression, anxiety, insomnia and adjustment disorder) (p < .001), engraftment time of neutrophils (p < .001), and CD8+ cell count at +30 days (p < .001) were independent predictors of late-onset HZ. A risk grading system was established based on regression coefficients. Discrimination and calibration analysis indicated that the model had good performance. We also identified several predictive factors of the incidence of HZ-related complications. This is the first scoring system for predicting the incidence of late-onset HZ after allo-HSCT. This model can be applied to identify individuals at high risk of late-onset HZ in the early period after receiving allo-HSCT.

A Prognostic Model Based on Clinical Biomarkers for Heart Failure in Adult Patients Following Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

Heart failure (HF) is an uncommon but serious cardiovascular complication after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Unfortunately, knowledge about early mortality prognostic factors in patients with HF after allo-HSCT is limited, and an easy-to-use prognostic model is not available. This study aimed to develop and validate a clinical-biomarker prognostic model capable of predicting HF mortality following allo-HSCT that uses a combination of variables readily available in clinical practice. To investigate this issue, we conducted a retrospective analysis at our center with 154 HF patients who underwent allo-HSCT between 2008 and 2021. The patients were separated according to the time of transplantation, with 100 patients composing the derivation cohort and the other 54 patients composing the external validation cohort. We first calculated the univariable association for each variable with 2-month mortality in the derivation cohort. We then included the variables with a P value <.1 in univariate analysis as candidate predictors in the multivariate analysis using a backward stepwise logistic regression model. Variables remaining in the final model were identified as independent prognostic factors. To predict the prognosis of HF, a scoring system was established, and scores were assigned to the prognostic factors based on the regression coefficient. Finally, 4 strongly significant independent prognostic factors for 2-month mortality from HF were identified using multivariable logistic regression methods with stepwise variable selection: pulmonary infection (P = .005), grade III to IV acute graft-versus-host disease (severe aGVHD; P = .033), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) >426 U/L (P = .049), and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) >1799 pg/mL (P = .026). A risk grading model termed the BLIPS score (for BNP, LDH, cardiac troponin I, pulmonary infection, and severe aGVHD) was constructed according to the regression coefficients. The validated internal C-statistic was .870 (95% confidence interval [CI], .798 to .942), and the external C-statistic was .882 (95% CI, .791-.973). According to the calibration plots, the model-predicted probability correlated well with the actual observed frequencies. The clinical use of the prognostic model, according to decision curve analysis, could benefit HF patients. The BLIPS model in our study can serve to identify HF patients at higher risk for mortality early, which might aid designing timely targeted therapies and eventually improving patients' survival and prognosis.

Thrombotic microangiopathies: An illustrated review

The thrombotic microangiopathies (TMAs) are a heterogenous group of disorders with distinct pathophysiologies that cause occlusive microvascular or macrovascular thrombosis, and are characterized by microangiopathic hemolytic anemia, thrombocytopenia, and/or end-organ ischemia. TMAs are associated with significant morbidity and mortality, and data on the management of certain TMAs are often lacking. The nomenclature, classification, and management of various TMAs is constantly evolving as we learn more about these rare syndromes. Thorough clinical and laboratory evaluation is essential to distinguish various TMAs and arrive at an accurate diagnosis, which is key for appropriate management. In this illustrated review, we focus on thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP), Shiga toxin-associated hemolytic uremic syndrome, complement-mediated hemolytic uremic syndrome, hematopoietic cell transplant-associated TMA, and drug-induced TMA, and describe their incidence, pathophysiology, diagnosis, and management. We also highlight emerging complement-directed therapies under investigation for the management of complement-mediated TMAs.

A systematic review of diagnostic, prognostic, and risk blood and urine biomarkers of transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy

Transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA) is an increasingly recognized complication of allogeneic and autologous hematopoietic cellular therapy (HCT), associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Although the central drivers of the disease are thought to be endothelial damage and complement activation, no specific diagnostic biomarkers have been identified. TA-TMA is typically diagnosed using criteria comprised of non-specific clinical and laboratory features. Some patients will have a self-remitting course, but more than half develop multi-organ dysfunction or die, making prognostic biomarkers critical. Prevention of TA-TMA, an approach central to other HCT complications such as graft-versus-host disease, is largely untested in part due to a lack of identified early high-risk biomarkers. We conducted a systematic review to summarize the diagnostic, early risk, and prognostic biomarkers of TA-TMA. We screened the titles and abstracts of 1524 citations. After screening out duplications, we read the abstracts of 979 papers and fully reviewed 132 full-text publications. Thirty-one publications fulfilled the inclusion criteria of more than five patients with TA-TMA and a reported measure of association with diagnosis, prognosis, or risk of later development of the disease. Fourteen studies (45%) were with adults, 12 (39%) were with children <18 years old, three included both children and adults, and two did not report age. There were 53 biomarker or biomarker signature entries, and a total of 27 unique biomarkers. Only four biomarkers reported sensitivity and specificity. The single biomarker with the most robust data was sC5b-9, which conferred diagnostic, prognostic, and risk implications. Studies of combinations of biomarkers were rare. No meta-analyses were performed because of significant heterogeneity between studies. The limitations of studies included small sample size, study designs with a high risk of bias (i.e., case-control), the timing of sample collection, and the selection of controls. Furthermore, only two (6%) studies included a training and validation cohort. Cut-off points are needed to stratify groups, as most biomarkers do not have normal values, or normal values cannot be assumed in the HCT setting. In the future, multi-institutional, collaborative efforts are needed to perform rigorously designed, prospective studies with serially enrolled patients, with samples collected at the time of TA-TMA diagnosis, careful selection of controls, and validation of selected biomarkers and cut-off points in a separate cohort.