Yield of tuberculosis screening in asylum-seekers by country of origin: analysis of screening data in a German federal state (2002–2015)

Targeting screening and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection towards asylum seekers from high-incidence countries - a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

Enhancing tuberculosis (TB) prevention and care in a post-COVID-19-pandemic phase will be essential to ensure progress towards global TB elimination. In low-burden countries, asylum seekers constitute an important high-risk group. TB frequently arises post-immigration due to the reactivation of latent TB infection (LTBI). Upon-entry screening for LTBI and TB preventive treatment (TPT) are considered worthwhile if targeted to asylum seekers from high-incidence countries who usually present with higher rates of LTBI. However, there is insufficient knowledge about optimal incidence thresholds above which introduction could be cost-effective. We aimed to estimate, among asylum seekers in Germany, the health impact and costs of upon-entry LTBI screening/TPT introduced at different thresholds of country-of-origin TB incidence.

Methods

We sampled hypothetical cohorts of 30–45 thousand asylum seekers aged 15 to 34 years expected to arrive in Germany in 2022 from cohorts of first-time applicants observed in 2017–2019. We modelled LTBI prevalence as a function of country-of-origin TB incidence fitted to data from observational studies. We then used a probabilistic decision-analytic model to estimate health-system costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) under interferon gamma release assay (IGRA)-based screening for LTBI and rifampicin-based TPT (daily, 4 months). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for scenarios of introducing LTBI screening/TPT at different incidence thresholds.

Results

We estimated that among 15- to 34-year-old asylum seekers arriving in Germany in 2022, 17.5% (95% uncertainty interval: 14.2–21.6%) will be latently infected. Introducing LTBI screening/TPT above 250 per 100,000 country-of-origin TB incidence would gain 7.3 (2.7–14.8) QALYs at a cost of €51,000 (€18,000–€114,100) per QALY. Lowering the threshold to ≥200 would cost an incremental €53,300 (€19,100–€122,500) per additional QALY gained relative to the ≥250 threshold scenario; ICERs for the ≥150 and ≥ 100 thresholds were €55,900 (€20,200–€128,200) and €62,000 (€23,200–€142,000), respectively, using the next higher threshold as a reference, and considerably higher at thresholds below 100.

Conclusions

LTBI screening and TPT among 15- to 34-year-old asylum seekers arriving in Germany could produce health benefits at reasonable additional cost (with respect to international benchmarks) if introduced at incidence thresholds ≥100. Empirical trials are needed to investigate the feasibility and effectiveness of this approach.

Cost-effectiveness of targeted screening for active pulmonary tuberculosis among asylum-seekers: A modelling study with screening data from a German federal state (2002-2015)

Screening asylum-seekers for active pulmonary tuberculosis is common practice among many European countries with low incidence of tuberculosis. The reported yields vary substantially, partly due to the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of asylum-seeking populations. Rather than screening all new arrivals (indiscriminate screening), a few countries apply targeted screening based on incidence of tuberculosis in asylum-seekers' country of origin. However, evaluations of its cost-effectiveness have been scarce. The aim of this modelling study was to assess whether the introduction of a screening threshold based on the tuberculosis incidence in the country of origin is sensible from an economic perspective. To this end, we compare the current, indiscriminate screening policy for pulmonary tuberculosis in Germany with a hypothetical targeted screening programme using several potential screening thresholds based on WHO-reported incidence of tuberculosis in countries of origin. Screening data is taken from a large German federal state over 14 years (2002-2015). Incremental cost-effectiveness is measured as cost per case found and cost per case prevented. Our analysis shows that incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of screening asylum-seekers from countries with an incidence of 50 to 250/100,000 range between 15,000€ and 17,000€ per additional case found when compared to lower thresholds. The ICER for screening asylum-seekers from countries with an incidence <50/100,000 is 112,000€ per additional case found. Costs per case prevented show a similar increase in costs. The high cost per case found and per case prevented at the <50/100,000 threshold scenario suggests this threshold to be a sensible cut-off for targeted screening. Acknowledging that no screening measure can find all cases of tuberculosis, and that reactivation of latent infections makes up a large proportion of foreign-born cases, targeting asylum-seekers from countries with an incidence above 50/100,000 is likely to be a more reasonable screening measure for the prevention and control of tuberculosis than indiscriminate screening measures.

Open flanks in the management of tuberculosis in Germany under the pressure of migration

To prevent transmission is the ultimate goal of any TB control strategy. So far, asylum seekers/immigrants are only actively screened for TB after arrival in Germany, if admitted to mass accommodation facilities. The current TB control strategy in Germany is assessed by a SWOT-analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) including the impact of active case finding, environmental case finding (ECF) also known as contact tracing, passive case finding (PCF) and effective TB treatment. According to the number-needed-to-screen (NNS), asylum seekers from most countries and unaccompanied minors would have to be screened for active TB by a chest radiograph at entry independently of the type of accommodation. This would include children between 10 and 15 years of age and a follow-up for at least 3 to 5 years, with a denser follow-up in the first year. ECF and PCF only contribute little to a proactive reduction of the pre-patency period. The available data on the epidemiology and the NNS of TB in migrants are sufficient to come up with a more powerful control strategy for TB in migrants in Germany to close the existing open flanks. It is time for action.

Tuberculosis among asylum seekers in Milan, Italy: epidemiological analysis and evaluation of interventions

In countries of the European Union, tuberculosis (TB) mainly affects marginalised people, including asylum seekers. Migratory flows from high-incidence countries to Italy have increased up to 2017, posing challenges to the national health system. This study sought to assess TB and latent TB infection (LTBI) prevalence among asylum seekers in Milan during the biennium 2016–2017 and to evaluate interventions in place.

A two-level active surveillance and screening system was developed for both TB and LTBI. Asylum seekers underwent an initial screening with a tuberculin skin test (TST) and a questionnaire at the receiving sites. At the Regional TB Reference Centre, those with a positive result underwent chest radiography. People aged <35 years with negative chest radiography results underwent further testing by interferon-γ release assay. If results of the assay were positive, LTBI treatment was offered. TB and LTBI prevalence were compared with literature data.

A total of 5324 asylum seekers, mostly young (10–39 years; 98%), male (84%) and from sub-Saharan Africa (69%), were enrolled in the study. 69 active TB cases were diagnosed and 863 LTBI-positive individuals were detected. TB prevalence was high (1236 per 100 000 population) and LTBI prevalence was 28%. Despite losses (41%) during the transition from initial screening sites and the diagnostic centre, a good TB cure rate (84%) and optimal LTBI treatment completion (94%) were achieved.

Our study shows that TB incidence is high among asylum seekers in Milan and that well-coordinated screening measures are critical for early diagnosis and treatment. It also proves that rolling out successful at-scale interventions for both prophylaxis and disease management is feasible.

Using country of origin to inform targeted tuberculosis screening in asylum seekers: a modelling study of screening data in a German federal state, 2002-2015

BACKGROUND

Screening programmes for tuberculosis (TB) among immigrants rarely consider the heterogeneity of risk related to migrants' country of origin. We assess the performance of a large screening programme in asylum seekers by analysing (i) the difference in yield and numbers needed to screen (NNS) by country and WHO-reported TB burden, (ii) the possible impact of screening thresholds on sensitivity, and (iii) the value of WHO-estimated TB burden to improve the prediction accuracy of screening yield.

METHODS

We combined individual data of 119,037 asylum seekers screened for TB in Germany (2002-2015) with TB estimates of the World Health Organization (WHO) (1990-2014) for their 81 countries of origin. Adjusted rate ratios (aRR) and 95% credible intervals (CrI) of the observed yield of screening were calculated in Bayesian Poisson regression models by categories of WHO-estimated TB incidence. We assessed changes in sensitivity depending on screening thresholds, used WHO TB estimates as prior information to predict TB in asylum seekers, and modelled country-specific probabilities of numbers needed to screen (NNS) conditional on different screening thresholds.

RESULTS

The overall yield was 82 per 100,000 and the annual yield ranged from 44.1 to 279.7 per 100,000. Country-specific yields ranged from 10 (95%- CrI: 1-47) to 683 (95%-CrI: 306-1336) per 100,000 in Iraqi and Somali asylum seekers, respectively. The observed yield was higher in asylum seekers from countries with a WHO-estimated TB incidence > 50 relative to those from countries ≤50 per 100,000 (aRR: 4.17, 95%-CrI: 2.86-6.59). Introducing a threshold in the range of a WHO-estimated TB incidence of 50 and 100 per 100,000 resulted in the lowest "loss" in sensitivity. WHO's TB prevalence estimates improved prediction accuracy for eight of the 11 countries, and allowed modelling country-specific probabilities of NNS.

CONCLUSIONS

WHO's TB data can inform the estimation of screening yield and thus be used to improve screening efficiency in asylum seekers. This may help to develop more targeted screening strategies by reducing uncertainty in estimates of expected country-specific yield, and identify thresholds with lowest loss in sensitivity. Further modelling studies are needed which combine clinical, diagnostic and country-specific parameters.

Screening for tuberculosis in migrants and visitors from high-incidence settings: present and future perspectives

In most settings with a low incidence of tuberculosis (TB), foreign-born people make up the majority of TB cases, but the distribution of the TB risk among different migrant populations is often poorly quantified. In addition, screening practices for TB disease and latent TB infection (LTBI) vary widely. Addressing the risk of TB in international migrants is an essential component of TB prevention and care efforts in low-incidence countries, and strategies to systematically screen for, diagnose, treat and prevent TB among this group contribute to national and global TB elimination goals.This review provides an overview and critical assessment of TB screening practices that are focused on migrants and visitors from high to low TB incidence countries, including pre-migration screening and post-migration follow-up of those deemed to be at an increased risk of developing TB. We focus mainly on migrants who enter the destination country via application for a long-stay visa, as well as asylum seekers and refugees, but briefly consider issues related to short-term visitors and those with long-duration multiple-entry visas. Issues related to the screening of children and screening for LTBI are also explored.

Infectious disease screening in asylum seekers: range, coverage and economic evaluation in Germany, 2015

Screening asylum seekers for infectious diseases is widely performed, but economic evaluations of such are scarce. We performed a policy analysis and economic evaluation of such screening in Germany, and analysed the effect of screening policies on cost differences between federal states. Of the 16 states, screening was compulsory for tuberculosis (TB) in asylum seekers ≥ 16 years of age in all states as well as in children < 16 years of age and pregnant women in six states, hepatitis B and enteropathogens in three, syphilis in two and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in one state. Of 441,899 asylum seekers, 88.0% were screened for TB, 22.9% for enteropathogens, 16.9% for hepatitis B, 13.1% for syphilis and 11.3% for HIV. The total costs for compulsory screening in 2015 were 10.3 million euros (EUR). Costs per case were highest for infections with Shigella spp. (80,200 EUR), Salmonella spp. (8,000 EUR), TB in those ≥ 16 years of age (5,300 EUR) and syphilis (1,150 EUR). States with extended screening had per capita costs 2.84 times those of states that exclusively screened for TB in asylum seekers ≥ 16 years of age (p < 0.0001, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.96–4.10). Screening practices in Germany entailed high costs; evidence-based approaches to infectious disease screening are needed.