Role of a clinical prediction score in a chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension rule-out strategy

Systematic pulmonary embolism follow-up increases diagnostic rates of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension and identifies less severe disease: results from the ASPIRE Registry

BACKGROUND

Diagnostic rates and risk factors for the subsequent development of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) following pulmonary embolism (PE) are not well defined.

METHODS

Over a 10-year period (2010-2020), consecutive patients attending a PE follow-up clinic in Sheffield, UK (population 554 600) and all patients diagnosed with CTEPH at a pulmonary hypertension (PH) referral centre in Sheffield (referral population estimated 15-20 million) were included.

RESULTS

Of 1956 patients attending the Sheffield PE clinic 3 months following a diagnosis of acute PE, 41 were diagnosed with CTEPH with a cumulative incidence of 2.10%, with 1.89% diagnosed within 2 years. Of 809 patients presenting with pulmonary hypertension (PH) and diagnosed with CTEPH, 32 were Sheffield residents and 777 were non-Sheffield residents. Patients diagnosed with CTEPH at the PE follow-up clinic had shorter symptom duration (p<0.01), better exercise capacity (p<0.05) and less severe pulmonary haemodynamics (p<0.01) compared with patients referred with suspected PH. Patients with no major transient risk factors present at the time of acute PE had a significantly higher risk of CTEPH compared with patients with major transient risk factors (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.11-11.91; p=0.03). The presence of three computed tomography (CT) features of PH in combination with two or more out of four features of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary disease at the index PE was found in 19% of patients who developed CTEPH and in 0% of patients who did not. Diagnostic rates and pulmonary endarterectomy (PEA) rates were higher at 13.2 and 3.6 per million per year, respectively, for Sheffield residents compared with 3.9-5.2 and 1.7-2.3 per million per year, respectively, for non-Sheffield residents.

CONCLUSIONS

In the real-world setting a dedicated PE follow-up pathway identifies patients with less severe CTEPH and increases population-based CTEPH diagnostic and PEA rates. At the time of acute PE diagnosis the absence of major transient risk factors, CT features of PH and chronic thromboembolism are risk factors for a subsequent diagnosis of CTEPH.

Pulmonary Embolism (PE) to Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Disease (CTEPD): Findings from a Survey of UK Physicians

Chronic thromboembolic pulmonary disease (CTEPD) is a complication of pulmonary embolism (PE). We conducted an online survey of UK PE-treating physicians to understand practices in the follow-up of PE and awareness of CTEPD. The physicians surveyed (N = 175) included 50 each from cardiology, respiratory and internal medicine, plus 25 haematologists. Most (89%) participants had local guidelines for PE management, and 65% reported a PE follow-up clinic, of which 69% were joint clinics. Almost half (47%) had a protocol for the investigation of CTEPD. According to participants, 129 (74%) routinely consider a diagnosis of CTEPD and 97 (55%) routinely investigate for CTEPD, with 76% of those 97 participants investigating in patients who are symptomatic at 3 months and 22% investigating in all patients. This survey demonstrated variability in the follow-up of PE and the awareness of CTEPD and its investigation. The findings support the conduct of a national audit to understand the barriers to the timely detection of CTEPD.

Development and validation of a claims-based model to identify patients at risk of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension following acute pulmonary embolism

OBJECTIVE

Chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) is a rare disease that often follows pulmonary embolism (PE). Screening for CTEPH is challenging, often delaying diagnosis and worsening prognosis. Predictive risk models for CTEPH could help identify at-risk patients, but existing models require multiple clinical inputs. We developed and validated a predictive risk model for CTEPH using health insurance claims that can be used by payers/quality-of-care organizations to screen patients post-PE.

METHODS

Adult patients newly diagnosed with acute PE (index date) were identified from the Optum De-identified Clinformatics Extended DataMart (January 2007-March 2018; development set) and IBM MarketScan (January 2008-June 2019; validation set) databases. Predictors were identified 12 months before or on the index PE. Risk of "likely CTEPH" was assessed post-PE based on CTEPH-related diagnoses and procedures since the CTEPH diagnosis code (ICD-10-CM: I27.24) was not available until 1 October 2017. Stepwise variable selection was used to build the model using the development set; model validation was subsequently conducted using the validation set.

RESULTS

The development set included 93,428 patients, of whom 11,878 (12.7%) developed likely CTEPH. Older age (odds ratios [OR] = 1.16-1.49), female (OR = 1.09), unprovoked PE (i.e. without thrombotic factors; OR = 1.14), hypertension (OR = 1.07), osteoarthritis (OR = 1.08), diabetes (OR = 1.07), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR = 1.11), obesity (OR = 1.21) were associated with higher odds of likely CTEPH, and oral anticoagulants with lower odds (OR= 0.50, all p < .01). C-statistic was 0.77 in the development and validation sets.

CONCLUSION

A claims-based risk model reliably predicted the risk of CTEPH post-PE and could be used to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from focused monitoring.

CT-Based Biomarkers for Prediction of Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension After an Acute Pulmonary Embolic Event

OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study is to assess CT-based markers predictive of the development of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) after acute pulmonary embolism. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Identified from a search of local registries, 48 patients who had CTEPH develop were included in the study group, and 113 patients who had complete resolution of acute pulmonary embolism were included in the control group. Baseline CT scans obtained at the time of the initial pulmonary embolism event were evaluated for the degree of clot-induced vessel obstruction, the quantitative Walsh score, the ratio of the right ventricle diameter to the left ventricle diameter, the right atrium diameter, the pulmonary artery diameter, right heart thrombus, pericardial effusion, lung infarction, and mosaic attenuation. Classification and regression tree analysis was used to create a decision tree. The decision tree was externally validated on an anonymized cohort of 50 control subjects and 50 patients with CTEPH. RESULTS. During univariable analysis, an increase in the degree occlusive clot on initial imaging, a decrease in the Walsh score, absence of pericardial effusion, presence of lung infarction, and the presence of mosaic attenuation were associated with an increased probability of CTEPH development. In the final decision tree, the occlusive nature of the clot remained. Two patients in the cohort used for external validation had nondiagnostic findings and were excluded. The decision process correctly classified 33% (16/48) of patients who had CTEPH develop and 86% (43/50) of patients who did not have CTEPH develop, for an odds ratio of 3.1 (95% CI, 1.1-8.3). CONCLUSION. The presence of an occlusive clot on initial imaging is associated with an increased probability of CTEPH development. Presence of mosaic attenuation and lung infarction may also predict CTEPH development, although additional studies are needed.

Pulmonary chronic thromboembolic disease

Persistent thrombotic lesions are common in patients with pulmonary embolism. These lesions occur on a clinical spectrum, ranging from an asymptomatic course with complete functional recovery to chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension. The concept of chronic thromboembolic disease has emerged in recent years to describe a subgroup of patients with persistent thrombotic lesions who have symptoms on exertion and pulmonary vascular dysfunction, but no pulmonary hypertension at rest. The prevalence of this entity is unknown and the criteria for diagnosing it are not defined. The aim of this article is to analyze post-pulmonary embolism sequelae and review existing evidence on chronic thromboembolic disease, with special emphasis on its diagnosis and therapeutic approach.

Prediction Score for persisting perfusion defects after pulmonary embolism

AIMS

Long-term persistence of perfusion defect after pulmonaryembolism (PE) may lead to the development of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension. Identification of patients at risk of such a complication using a scoring system would be beneficial in clinical practice. Here, we aimed to derive a score for predicting persistence of perfusion defects after PE.

METHODS

83 patients after PE were re-examined 6, 12 and 24 months after the PE episode. Data collected at the time of PE and perfusion status during follow-ups were used for modelling perfusion defects persistence using the Cox proportional hazards model and validated using bootstrap method.

RESULTS

A simple scoring system utilizing two variables (hemoglobin levels and age at the time of PE) was developed. Patients with hemoglobin levels over 140 g/L who were older than 65 years were at the highest risk of perfusion defects; in patients with the same hemoglobin levels and age <65 years, the risk was reduced by 79%, and by 89% in patients with hemoglobin <140 g/L.

CONCLUSION

The proposed scoring system may be useful in clinical practice for identifying patients with high risk of persisting perfusion defects, flagging them for closer follow up, thus improving the effectiveness of long-term treatment of patients after PE.