Prediction and course of symptoms and lung function around an exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Developing and validating prediction models for severe exacerbations and readmissions in patients hospitalised for COPD exacerbation (SERCO) in China: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of individualised prediction models for patients hospitalised with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for clinical practice. We developed and validated prediction models of severe exacerbations and readmissions in patients hospitalised for COPD exacerbation (SERCO).

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Inpatient Registry study (NCT02657525) in China. Cause-specific hazard models were used to estimate coefficients. C-statistic was used to evaluate the discrimination. Slope and intercept were used to evaluate the calibration and used for model adjustment. Models were validated internally by 10-fold cross-validation and externally using data from different regions. Risk-stratified scoring scales and nomograms were provided. The discrimination ability of the SERCO model was compared with the exacerbation history in the previous year.

RESULTS

Two sets with 2196 and 1869 patients from different geographical regions were used for model development and external validation. The 12-month severe exacerbations cumulative incidence rates were 11.55% (95% CI 10.06% to 13.16%) in development cohorts and 12.30% (95% CI 10.67% to 14.05%) in validation cohorts. The COPD-specific readmission incidence rates were 11.31% (95% CI 9.83% to 12.91%) and 12.26% (95% CI 10.63% to 14.02%), respectively. Demographic characteristics, medical history, comorbidities, drug usage, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage and interactions were included as predictors. C-indexes for severe exacerbations were 77.3 (95% CI 70.7 to 83.9), 76.5 (95% CI 72.6 to 80.4) and 74.7 (95% CI 71.2 to 78.2) at 1, 6 and 12 months. The corresponding values for readmissions were 77.1 (95% CI 70.1 to 84.0), 76.3 (95% CI 72.3 to 80.4) and 74.5 (95% CI 71.0 to 78.0). The SERCO model was consistently discriminative and accurate with C-indexes in the derivation and internal validation groups. In external validation, the C-indexes were relatively lower at 60-70 levels. The SERCO model discriminated outcomes better than prior severe exacerbation history. The slope and intercept after adjustment showed close agreement between predicted and observed risks. However, in external validation, the models may overestimate the risk in higher-risk groups. The model-driven risk groups showed significant disparities in prognosis.

CONCLUSION

The SERCO model provides individual predictions for severe exacerbation and COPD-specific readmission risk, which enables identifying high-risk patients and implementing personalised preventive intervention for patients with COPD.

Early diagnostic BioMARKers in exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: protocol of the exploratory, prospective, longitudinal, single-centre, observational MARKED study

INTRODUCTION

Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) play a pivotal role in the burden and progressive course of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). As such, disease management is predominantly based on the prevention of these episodes of acute worsening of respiratory symptoms. However, to date, personalised prediction and early and accurate diagnosis of AECOPD remain unsuccessful. Therefore, the current study was designed to explore which frequently measured biomarkers can predict an AECOPD and/or respiratory infection in patients with COPD. Moreover, the study aims to increase our understanding of the heterogeneity of AECOPD as well as the role of microbial composition and hostmicrobiome interactions to elucidate new disease biology in COPD.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The 'Early diagnostic BioMARKers in Exacerbations of COPD' study is an exploratory, prospective, longitudinal, single-centre, observational study with 8-week follow-up enrolling up to 150 patients with COPD admitted to inpatient pulmonary rehabilitation at Ciro (Horn, the Netherlands). Respiratory symptoms, vitals, spirometry and nasopharyngeal, venous blood, spontaneous sputum and stool samples will be frequently collected for exploratory biomarker analysis, longitudinal characterisation of AECOPD (ie, clinical, functional and microbial) and to identify host-microbiome interactions. Genomic sequencing will be performed to identify mutations associated with increased risk of AECOPD and microbial infections. Predictors of time-to-first AECOPD will be modelled using Cox proportional hazards' regression. Multiomic analyses will provide a novel integration tool to generate predictive models and testable hypotheses about disease causation and predictors of disease progression.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This protocol was approved by the Medical Research Ethics Committees United (MEC-U), Nieuwegein, the Netherlands (NL71364.100.19).

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05315674.

Budesonide/formoterol maintenance and reliever therapy versus fluticasone/salmeterol fixed-dose treatment in patients with COPD

BACKGROUND

Maintenance and reliever therapy (MART) with inhaled corticosteroid (ICS)/formoterol effectively reduces exacerbations in asthma. We aimed to investigate its efficacy compared with fixed-dose fluticasone/salmeterol in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

METHODS

Patients with COPD and ≥1 exacerbation in the previous 2 years were randomly assigned to open-label MART (Spiromax budesonide/formoterol 160/4.5 µg 2 inhalations twice daily+1 prn) or fixed-dose therapy (Diskus fluticasone propionate/salmeterol combination (FSC) 500/50 µg 1 inhalation twice daily+salbutamol 100 µg prn) for 1 year. The primary outcome was rate of moderate/severe exacerbations, defined by treatment with oral prednisolone and/or antibiotics.

RESULTS

In total, 195 patients were randomised (MART Bud/Form n=103; fixed-dose FSC n=92). No significant difference was seen between MART and FSC therapy in exacerbation rates (1.32 vs 1.32 /year, respectively, rate ratio 1.05 (95% CI 0.79 to 1.39); p=0.741). No differences in lung function parameters or health status were observed. Total ICS dose was significantly lower with MART than FSC therapy (budesonide-equivalent 928 µg/day vs 1747 µg/day, respectively, p<0.05). Similar proportions of patients reported adverse events (MART Bud/Form: 73% vs fixed-dose FSC: 68%, p=0.408) and pneumonias (MART: 5% vs FSC: 1%, p=0.216).

CONCLUSIONS

This first study of MART in COPD found that budesonide/formoterol MART might be similarly effective to fluticasone/salmeterol fixed-dose therapy in moderate to severe patients with COPD, at a lower daily ICS dosage. Further evidence is needed about long-term safety.

Remote patient monitoring in the management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Remote patient monitoring allows monitoring high-risk patients through implementation of an expanding number of technologies in coordination with a healthcare team to augment care, with the potential to provide early detection of exacerbation, prompt access to therapy and clinical services, and ultimately improved patient outcomes and decreased healthcare utilization.In this review, we describe the application of remote patient monitoring in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease including the potential benefits and possible barriers to implementation both for the individual and the healthcare system.

Comparison of peak expiratory Flow(PEF) and COPD assessment test (CAT) to assess COPD exacerbation requiring hospitalization: A prospective observational study

Background: Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) resulting in hospitalization is significantly associated with the increased morbidity and mortality, but there is a lack of an effective method to assess it. This study aimed to compare the ability of peak expiratory flow (PEF) and COPD assessment test (CAT) to assess COPD exacerbations requiring hospitalization. Methods : A cohort of 110 patients with moderate to severe COPD was studied over a period of 12 months, and their daily morning PEFs and CAT scores were recorded throughout the study. Results : After 12 months of follow-up, 72 patients experienced 156 COPD exacerbations, 74 (47%) that resulted in hospitalization and 82 (53%) that did not result in hospitalization. Change in CAT score from baseline to exacerbation was significantly related to change in PEF and Spearman’s rho =0.375 (95% CI, 0.227 to 0.506; p < .001). Change in PEF and CAT score from baseline to hospitalized exacerbation was significantly larger than that from baseline to non-hospitalized exacerbation (p < .05). Multivariable analysis indicated that ΔPEF (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.06–1.16, p < .001) and ΔCAT (OR 1.64 95% CI 1.18–2.27, p = .003) were independently associated with risk of hospitalized exacerbation. ROC analysis indicated that the optimal cutoff value of ΔPEF for identifying hospitalized exacerbation was 49 L/min (27% from baseline), with a sensitivity and specificity of 82.7% and 76.7% (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.872 (95% CI 0.80–0.944, p < .05). The optimal cutoff value of ΔCAT score for identifying hospitalized exacerbation was 10.5 (63% from baseline), with a sensitivity and specificity of 67.3% and 77.4% [AUC]=0.763 (95% CI 0.67–0.857, p < .05). The AUC of ΔPEF and ΔCAT combined for the identification of hospitalized exacerbation was 0.900 (95% CI 0.841–0.959, p < .05), which was larger than that of ΔCAT or ΔPEF. Conclusions: ΔPEF and ΔCAT were independently associated with risk of hospitalized exacerbation. Compared with CAT, PEF was superior to identify hospitalized exacerbation. Identification via PEF and CAT combined is more effective than using PEF or CAT alone. These results help to assess the severity of COPD exacerbation and provide valuable information for clinical decision-making.

Prediction of gold stage in patients hospitalized with COPD exacerbations using blood neutrophils and demographic parameters as risk factors

Background

Patients hospitalized with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations are unable to complete the pulmonary function test reliably due to their poor health conditions. Creating an easy-to-use instrument to identify the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage will offer valuable information that assists clinicians to choose appropriate clinical care to decrease the mortality in these patients. The objective of this study was to develop a prediction model to identify the GOLD stage in the hospitalized exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ECOPD) patients.

Methods

This prospective study involved 155 patients hospitalized for ECOPD. All participants completed lung function tests and the collection of blood neutrophils and demographic parameters. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted based on the data of 155 patients, and was used to analyze the disease severity predictive capability of blood neutrophils and demographic parameters. A support vector regression (SVR) based GOLD stage prediction model was built using the training data set (75%), whose accuracy was then verified by the testing data set (25%).

Results

The percentage of blood neutrophils (denoted as NEU%) combined with the demographic parameters was associated with a higher risk to severe episode of ECOPD. The area under the ROC curve was 0.84. The SVR model managed to predict the GOLD stage with an accuracy of 90.24%. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the forced expiratory volume in one second as the percentage of the predicted value (denoted as FEV₁%pred) was 8.84%.

Conclusions

The NEU% and demographic parameters are associated with the pulmonary function of the hospitalized ECOPD patients. The established prediction model could assist clinicians in diagnosing GOLD stage and planning appropriate clinical care.

Unmet needs in the management of exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are episodes of acute worsening of respiratory symptoms that require additional therapy. These events play a pivotal role in the natural course of the disease and are associated with a progressive decline in lung function, reduced health status, a low physical activity level, tremendous health care costs, and increased mortality. Although most exacerbations have an infectious origin, the underlying mechanisms are heterogeneous and specific predictors of their occurrence in individual patients are currently unknown. Accurate prediction and early diagnosis of exacerbations is essential to develop novel targets for prevention and personalized treatments to reduce the impact of these events. Several potential biomarkers have previously been studied, these however lack specificity, accuracy and do not add value to the available clinical predictors. At present, microbial composition and host-microbiome interactions in the lung are increasingly recognized for their role in affecting the susceptibility to exacerbations, and may steer towards a novel direction in the management of COPD exacerbations. This narrative review describes the current challenges and unmet needs in the management of acute exacerbations of COPD. Exacerbation triggers, biological clusters, current treatment strategies, and their limitations, previously studied biomarkers and prediction tools, the lung microbiome and its role in COPD exacerbations as well as future directions are discussed.

The Impact of COPD Exacerbations in the Year Following Pulmonary Rehabilitation: Secondary Analysis of a Randomised Controlled Trial

Background

Pulmonary rehabilitation is an effective treatment for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but its benefits are poorly maintained. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of COPD exacerbations in the year following pulmonary rehabilitation on outcomes at 12 months.

Methods

This was a secondary analysis from a trial of home versus hospital-based rehabilitation in COPD, with 12 months of follow-up. Moderate and severe exacerbations were identified using administrative data (prescriptions) and hospital records (admissions) respectively. The impact of exacerbations at 12 months following pulmonary rehabilitation was evaluated for quality of life (Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire, CRQ), dyspnea (modified Medical Research Council, mMRC), exercise capacity (6-minute walk distance, 6MWD) and objectively measured physical activity (moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, MVPA).

Results

A total of 166 participants were included, with mean age (SD) 69 (9) years and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) 49 (19)% predicted. Moderate exacerbations occurred in 68% and severe exacerbations in 34% of participants. Experiencing a severe exacerbation was an independent predictor of worse 12-month outcomes for CRQ (total, fatigue and emotional function domains), mMRC, 6MWD and MVPA (all p<0.05). Participants who completed pulmonary rehabilitation were less likely to have a severe exacerbation (29% vs 48%, p=0.02). Severe exacerbations were more likely in those with worse baseline CRQ total (odds ratio 0.97, 95% CI 0.95 to 0.99) and FEV1%predicted (0.98, 95% CI 0.96 to 0.99).

Conclusion

Severe exacerbations occur frequently following pulmonary rehabilitation and predict worse 12-month outcomes. Strategies to maintain the benefits of pulmonary rehabilitation should address exacerbation prevention and management.

A Cross-Sectional Study in Patients with Severe COPD to Assess the Perception of Symptom Variability (COPVAR) in the Middle East and Africa

Purpose

This study was performed to assess symptom variability and its impact on morning activities in stable patients with severe COPD in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries.

Patients and methods

Non-interventional, cross-sectional study (NCT03425760) in patients with severe COPD (GOLD 2015, C, or D categories). Symptom variability was assessed directly by interviewing the patient and using the Global Chest Symptoms Questionnaire (GCSQ). The impact on morning activities was assessed using the Capacity of Daily Living during the Morning (CDLM) and the Morning Activities and Symptoms Questionnaire (MASQ).

Results

A total of 3253 patients (mean±SD age: 64.1±9.5 years, 90.3% males) were enrolled. Overall, 81.6% and 83.4% of patients reported weekly and daily symptom variability, respectively. The number of exacerbations in the previous year, smoking cessation, and COPD GOLD D were the most consistent factors associated with symptom variability. The GCSQ score was significantly higher (p<0.001) in GOLD D than in GOLD C patients at each time during the day. In GOLD D, the mean (±SD) GCSQ score was higher at night (1.6±1.2, p<0.001) and in the morning (1.5±1.0, p<0.001) than in the afternoon (1.3±0.9), suggesting daytime variability of breathlessness and chest tightness. Overall, 60.0% of GOLD D patients (versus 13.6% GOLD C, p<0.0001) had difficulty getting out of bed due to COPD. Patients with symptom variability had significantly more difficulty to get out of bed, especially patients with chest tightness variability (p<0.0001) and wheezing variability (p<0.0001). The CDLM global score was significantly lower (p<0.0001) in GOLD D than in GOLD C patients (3.5±1.1 and 4.6 ± 3.5, respectively). Daily variability in chest tightness and wheezing was also significantly associated with CDLM scores (p<0.0001).

Conclusion

In MEA countries, patients with severe stable COPD reported significant daily and weekly symptom variability which affects morning activities, particularly in GOLD D patients.

Monitoring peak expiratory flow could predict COPD exacerbations: A prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ECOPD) is an important event during the course of the disease. It causes a more rapid decline in lung function, which is associated with hospitalization and the risk of death. Therefore, it is essential to discover approaches to early detection and prevention of ECOPD. Peak expiratory flow (PEF) can be safely used instead of spirometry which can assess the severity of COPD as a standard tool. We hypothesized that monitoring PEF could possibly be used to predict the ECOPD.

METHOD

To verify this hypothesis, daily morning PEF was monitored for 6 months in 53 patients with moderate to severe COPD (mean FEV1 31.53%predicted) who were enrolled in Ningbo, China.

RESULT

A total of 69 exacerbations of COPD (63 of gradual onset, six of sudden onset) were recorded in this study. Thirty cases (43.5%) of gradual onset exacerbations needed to be hospitalized, and the mean PEF significantly decreased (vs baseline) during the 5 days that preceded those exacerbations (from 161.9 ± 39.4 L/min to 137.9 ± 36.1 L/min, P < 0.05, statistical power = 0.92). However, this was not the case with non-hospitalized exacerbations (from 175.4 ± 42.5 L/min to 161.5 ± 39.3 L/min, P = 0.172, statistical power = 0.63). The ROC analysis demonstrated that 24 h before hospitalized exacerbation, the optimal cutoff value of ΔPEF for its prediction was 28 L/min (17% from baseline), with a sensitivity and specificity of 76.7% and 72.7%, respectively (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.84, P < 0.05, statistical power = 0.78). While 48 h before hospitalized exacerbation, the optimal cutoff value of ΔPEF for its prediction was 14 L/min (9% from baseline), with a sensitivity and specificity of 86.7% and 66.7%, respectively (AUC = 0.863, P < 0.05, statistical power = 0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

As a rapid, inexpensive method, PEF could be used for the prediction and early detection of hospitalized exacerbation of COPD. This may provide opportunity for early intervention of ECOPD.

Effort Oxygen Saturation and Effort Heart Rate to Detect Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease or Congestive Heart Failure

Background: current algorithms for the detection of heart failure (HF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations have poor performance. Methods: this study was designed as a prospective longitudinal trial. Physiological parameters were evaluated at rest and effort (walking) in patients who were in the exacerbation or stable phases of HF or COPD. Parameters with relevant discriminatory power (sensitivity (Sn) or specificity (Sp) ≥ 80%, and Youden index ≥ 0.2) were integrated into diagnostic algorithms. Results: the study included 127 patients (COPD: 56, HF: 54, both: 17). The best algorithm for COPD included: oxygen saturation (SaO₂) decrease ≥ 2% in minutes 1 to 3 of effort, end-of-effort heart rate (HR) increase ≥ 10 beats/min and walking distance decrease ≥ 35 m (presence of one criterion showed Sn: 0.90 (95%, CI(confidence interval): 0.75–0.97), Sp: 0.89 (95%, CI: 0.72–0.96), and area under the curve (AUC): 0.92 (95%, CI: 0.85–0.995)); and for HF: SaO₂ decrease ≥ 2% in the mean-of-effort, HR increase ≥ 10 beats/min in the mean-of-effort, and walking distance decrease ≥ 40 m (presence of one criterion showed Sn: 0.85 (95%, CI: 0.69–0.93), Sp: 0.75 (95%, CI: 0.57–0.87) and AUC 0.84 (95%, CI: 0.74–0.94)). Conclusions: effort situations improve the validity of physiological parameters for detection of HF and COPD exacerbation episodes.

Spirometric changes during exacerbations of COPD: a post hoc analysis of the WISDOM trial

BACKGROUND

Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are associated with loss of lung function and poor outcomes for patients. However, there are limited data on the time course of changes in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁) preceding the first reported symptom and after the start of an exacerbation.

METHODS

WISDOM was a multinational, randomized, double-blind, active-controlled, 52-week study in patients with severe-to-very severe COPD. Patients received triple therapy (long-acting muscarinic antagonist and long-acting β₂-agonist/inhaled corticosteroid [ICS]) for 6 weeks, and were randomized to continue triple therapy or stepwise withdrawal of the ICS (dual bronchodilator group). After suitable training, patients performed daily spirometry at home using a portable, battery-operated spirometer. In the present post hoc analysis, patients who continued to perform daily home spirometry and completed at least one measurement per week for a 56-day period before and after the start of a moderate or severe exacerbation were included. Missing values were imputed by linear interpolation (intermittent), backfilling (beginning) or carry forward (end). Exacerbation onset was the first day of a reported symptom of exacerbation.

RESULTS

Eight hundred and eighty-eight patients in the WISDOM study had a moderate/severe exacerbation after the complete ICS withdrawal visit; 360 of them contributed at least one FEV₁ measure per week for the 8 weeks before and after the event and are included in this analysis. Mean daily FEV₁ began to decline from approximately 2 weeks before the onset of symptoms of an exacerbation, dropping from 0.907 L (mean Days - 56 to - 36 before the exacerbation) to 0.860 L on the first day of the exacerbation. After the exacerbation, mean FEV₁ improved but did not return to pre-exacerbation levels (mean Days 36-56 after the exacerbation, 0.875 L). The pattern of FEV₁ changes around exacerbations was similar in the triple therapy and dual bronchodilator groups, and a similar pattern was seen in moderate and severe exacerbations when analysed separately.

CONCLUSIONS

Mean lung function starts to decline prior to the first reported symptoms of an exacerbation, and does not recover to pre-exacerbation levels 8 weeks after the event.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

WISDOM (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00975195 ).

Continuous remote monitoring of COPD patients-justification and explanation of the requirements and a survey of the available technologies

Remote patient monitoring should reduce mortality rates, improve care, and reduce costs. We present an overview of the available technologies for the remote monitoring of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients, together with the most important medical information regarding COPD in a language that is adapted for engineers. Our aim is to bridge the gap between the technical and medical worlds and to facilitate and motivate future research in the field. We also present a justification, motivation, and explanation of how to monitor the most important parameters for COPD patients, together with pointers for the challenges that remain. Additionally, we propose and justify the importance of electrocardiograms (ECGs) and the arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure (PaCO2) as two crucial physiological parameters that have not been used so far to any great extent in the monitoring of COPD patients. We cover four possibilities for the remote monitoring of COPD patients: continuous monitoring during normal daily activities for the prediction and early detection of exacerbations and life-threatening events, monitoring during the home treatment of mild exacerbations, monitoring oxygen therapy applications, and monitoring exercise. We also present and discuss the current approaches to decision support at remote locations and list the normal and pathological values/ranges for all the relevant physiological parameters. The paper concludes with our insights into the future developments and remaining challenges for improvements to continuous remote monitoring systems. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

How Do Dual Long-Acting Bronchodilators Prevent Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease?

Decreasing the frequency and severity of exacerbations is one of the main goals of treatment for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Several studies have documented that long-acting bronchodilators can reduce exacerbation rate and/or severity, and others have shown that combinations of long-acting β₂-adrenergic agonists (LABAs) and long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMAs) provide greater reductions in exacerbation frequency than either their monocomponents or LABA/inhaled corticosteroid combinations in patients at low and high risk for these events. In this review, small groups of experts critically evaluated mechanisms potentially responsible for the increased benefit of LABA/LAMA combinations over single long-acting bronchodilators or LABA/inhaled corticosteroids in decreasing exacerbation. These included effects on lung hyperinflation and mechanical stress, inflammation, excessive mucus production with impaired mucociliary clearance, and symptom severity. The data assembled and analyzed by each group were reviewed by all authors and combined into this manuscript. Available clinical results support the possibility that effects of LABA/LAMA combinations on hyperinflation, mucociliary clearance, and symptom severity may all contribute to decreasing exacerbations. Although preclinical studies suggest LABAs and LAMAs have antiinflammatory effects, such effects have not been demonstrated yet in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Systems Biology and Clinical Practice in Respiratory Medicine. The Twain Shall Meet

Respiratory diseases are highly complex, being driven by host-environment interactions and manifested by inflammatory, structural, and functional abnormalities that vary over time. Traditional reductionist approaches have contributed vastly to our knowledge of biological systems in health and disease to date; however, they are insufficient to provide an understanding of the behavior of the system as a whole. In this Pulmonary Perspective, we discuss systems biology approaches, especially but not limited to the study of the lung as a complex system. Such integrative approaches take into account the large number of dynamic subunits and their interactions found in biological systems. Borrowing methods from physics and mathematics, it is possible to study the collective behavior of these systems over time and in a multidimensional manner. We first examine the physiological basis for complexity in the respiratory system and its implications for disease. We then expand on the potential applications of systems biology methods to study complex systems, within the context of diagnosis and monitoring of respiratory diseases including asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and critical illness. We summarize the significant advances made in recent years using systems approaches for disease phenotyping, applied to data ranging from the molecular to clinical level, obtained from large-scale asthma and COPD networks. We describe new studies using temporal complexity patterns to characterize asthma and COPD and predict exacerbations as well as predict adverse outcomes in critical care. We highlight new methods that are emerging with this approach and discuss remaining questions that merit greater attention in the field.

Context Relevant Prediction Model for COPD Domain Using Bayesian Belief Network

In the last three decades, researchers have examined extensively how context-aware systems can assist people, specifically those suffering from incurable diseases, to help them cope with their medical illness. Over the years, a huge number of studies on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) have been published. However, how to derive relevant attributes and early detection of COPD exacerbations remains a challenge. In this research work, we will use an efficient algorithm to select relevant attributes where there is no proper approach in this domain. Such algorithm predicts exacerbations with high accuracy by adding discretization process, and organizes the pertinent attributes in priority order based on their impact to facilitate the emergency medical treatment. In this paper, we propose an extension of our existing Helper Context-Aware Engine System (HCES) for COPD. This project uses Bayesian network algorithm to depict the dependency between the COPD symptoms (attributes) in order to overcome the insufficiency and the independency hypothesis of naïve Bayesian. In addition, the dependency in Bayesian network is realized using TAN algorithm rather than consulting pneumologists. All these combined algorithms (discretization, selection, dependency, and the ordering of the relevant attributes) constitute an effective prediction model, comparing to effective ones. Moreover, an investigation and comparison of different scenarios of these algorithms are also done to verify which sequence of steps of prediction model gives more accurate results. Finally, we designed and validated a computer-aided support application to integrate different steps of this model. The findings of our system HCES has shown promising results using Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC = 81.5%).

Monitoring of Physiological Parameters to Predict Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD): A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

The value of monitoring physiological parameters to predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations is controversial. A few studies have suggested benefit from domiciliary monitoring of vital signs, and/or lung function but there is no existing systematic review.

OBJECTIVES

To conduct a systematic review of the effectiveness of monitoring physiological parameters to predict COPD exacerbation.

METHODS

An electronic systematic search compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines was conducted. The search was updated to April 6, 2016. Five databases were examined: Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online, or MEDLARS Online (Medline), Excerpta Medica dataBASE (Embase), Allied and Complementary Medicine Database (AMED), Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and the Cochrane clinical trials database.

RESULTS

Sixteen articles met the pre-specified inclusion criteria. Fifteen of these articules reported positive results in predicting COPD exacerbation via monitoring of physiological parameters. Nine studies showed a reduction in peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO₂%) prior to exacerbation onset. Three studies for peak flow, and two studies for respiratory rate reported a significant variation prior to or at exacerbation onset. A particular challenge is accounting for baseline heterogeneity in parameters between patients.

CONCLUSION

There is currently insufficient information on how physiological parameters vary prior to exacerbation to support routine domiciliary monitoring for the prediction of exacerbations in COPD. However, the method remains promising.

Risk factors and early origins of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is mainly a smoking-related disorder and affects millions of people worldwide, with a large effect on individual patients and society as a whole. Although the disease becomes clinically apparent around the age of 40-50 years, its origins can begin very early in life. Different risk factors in very early life--ie, in utero and during early childhood--drive the development of clinically apparent chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in later life. In discussions of which risk factors drive chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, it is important to realise that the disease is very heterogeneous and at present is largely diagnosed by lung function only. In this Review, we will discuss the evidence for risk factors for the various phenotypes of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease during different stages of life.

A home telehealth program for patients with severe COPD: the PROMETE study

BACKGROUND

Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOP) are key events in the natural history of the disease. Patients with more AECOPD have worse prognosis. There is a need of innovative models of care for patients with severe COPD and frequent AECOPD, and Telehealth (TH) is part of these programs.

METHODS

In a cluster assignment, controlled trial study design, we recruited 60 patients, 30 in home telehealth (HT) and 30 in conventional care (CC). All participants had a prior diagnosis of COPD with a post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume (FEV1)% predicted <50%, age ≥ 50 years, were on long-term home oxygen therapy, and non-smokers. Patients in the HT group measured their vital signs on a daily bases, and data were transmitted automatically to a Clinical Monitoring Center for followed-up, and who escalated clinical alerts to a Pneumologist.

RESULTS

After 7-month of monitoring and follow-up, there was a significant reduction in ER visits (20 in HT vs. 57 in CC), hospitalizations (12 vs. 33), length of hospital stay in (105 vs. 276 days), and even need for non-invasive mechanical ventilation (0 vs. 8), all p < 0.05. Time to the first severe AECOPD increased from 77 days in CC to 141 days in HT (K-M p < 0.05). There was no study withdrawals associated with technology. All patients showed a high level of satisfaction with the HT program.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that HT in elderly, severe COPD patients with multiple comorbidities is safe and efficacious in reducing healthcare resources utilization.

Day-to-day measurement of patient-reported outcomes in exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background

Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are a major burden to patients and to society. Little is known about the possible role of day-to-day patient-reported outcomes during an exacerbation. This study aims to describe the day-to-day course of patient-reported health status during exacerbations of COPD and to assess its value in predicting clinical outcomes.

Methods

Data from two randomized controlled COPD exacerbation trials (n = 210 and n = 45 patients) were used to describe both the feasibility of daily collection of and the day-to-day course of patient-reported outcomes during outpatient treatment or admission to hospital. In addition to clinical parameters, the BORG dyspnea score, the Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ), and the St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire were used in Cox regression models to predict treatment failure, time to next exacerbation, and mortality in the hospital study.

Results

All patient-reported outcomes showed a distinct pattern of improvement. In the multivariate models, absence of improvement in CCQ symptom score and impaired lung function were independent predictors of treatment failure. Health status and gender predicted time to next exacerbation. Five-year mortality was predicted by age, forced expiratory flow in one second % predicted, smoking status, and CCQ score. In outpatient management of exacerbations, health status was found to be less impaired than in hospitalized patients, while the rate and pattern of recovery was remarkably similar.

Conclusion

Daily health status measurements were found to predict treatment failure, which could help decision-making for patients hospitalized due to an exacerbation of COPD.

Symptom variability in COPD: a narrative review

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has traditionally been considered an inexorably progressive disease, associated with a constant increase of symptoms that occur as the forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) worsens, only intermittently interrupted by exacerbations. However, this paradigm has been challenged in recent decades by the available evidence. Recent studies have pointed out that COPD-related symptoms are not consistently perceived by patients in the same way, showing not only seasonal variation, but also changes in symptom perception during a week or even within a single day. According to the available data, patients experience the biggest increase in respiratory symptoms during the first hours of the early morning, followed by the nighttime. This variation over time is of considerable importance, since it impacts on daily life activities and health-related quality of life, as measured by a recently developed ad hoc questionnaire. Additionally, recent clinical trials have suggested that the use of rapid-onset long-acting bronchodilators may have an impact on morning symptoms, despite their current use as maintenance treatment for a determined period. Although this hypothesis is to be validated in future long-term clinical trials comparing fast-onset versus slow-onset inhaled drugs in COPD, it may bring forward a new concept of long-term bronchodilator therapy. At the present time, the two available long-acting, fast-onset bronchodilators used in the treatment of COPD are formoterol and the recently marketed indacaterol. Newer drugs have also been shown to have a rapid onset of action in preclinical studies. Health care professionals caring for COPD patients should consider this variation in the perception of symptoms during their clinical interview as a potential new target in the long-term treatment plan.

Analysis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations with the dual bronchodilator QVA149 compared with glycopyrronium and tiotropium (SPARK): a randomised, double-blind, parallel-group study

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the effect of dual, longacting inhaled bronchodilator treatment on exacerbations in patients with severe and very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

METHODS

In this parallel-group study, 2224 patients (aged ≥40 years, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stages III-IV, and one or more moderate COPD exacerbation in the past year) were randomly assigned (1:1:1; via interactive voice response or web system; stratified for smoking status) to once-daily QVA149 (fixed-dose combination of indacaterol 110 μg and glycopyrronium 50 μg), glycopyrronium 50 μg, or tiotropium 18 μg for 64 weeks. Assignment to QVA149 and glycopyrronium was double-blind; tiotropium was open-label. Efficacy was assessed in all patients randomly assigned to treatment groups who received at least one dose of study drug; safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose whether or not they were assigned to a group. The primary objective was to show superiority of QVA149 versus glycopyrronium for rate of moderate to severe COPD exacerbations (defined by worsening symptoms and categorised by treatment requirements) during treatment. This completed trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01120691.

FINDINGS

Between April 27, 2010, and July 11, 2012, 741 patients were randomly assigned to receive QVA149, 741 to receive glycopyrronium, and 742 to receive tiotropium (729, 739, and 737 patients, respectively, analysed for efficacy). QVA149 significantly reduced the rate of moderate to severe exacerbations versus glycopyrronium by 12% (annualised rate of exacerbations 0·84 [95% CI 0·75-0·94] vs 0·95 [0·85-1·06]; rate ratio 0·88, 95% CI 0·77-0·99, p=0·038). Adverse events (including exacerbations) were reported for 678 (93%) of 729 patients on QVA149, 694 (94%) of 740 on glycopyrronium, and 686 (93%) of 737 on tiotropium. Incidence of serious adverse events was similar between groups (167 [23%] patients on QVA149, 179 [24%] on glycopyrronium, and 165 [22%] on tiotropium); COPD worsening was the most frequent serious adverse event (107 [15%] patients on QVA149, 116 [16%] on glycopyrronium, 87 [12%] on tiotropium).

INTERPRETATIONS

The dual bronchodilator QVA149 was superior in preventing moderate to severe COPD exacerbations compared with the single longacting antimuscarinic bronchodilator glycopyrronium, with concomitant improvements in lung function and health status. These results indicate the potential of dual bronchodilation as a treatment option for patients with severe and very severe COPD.

FUNDING

Novartis Pharma AG.