The nonadaptive nature of the H1N1 2009 Swine Flu pandemic contrasts with the adaptive facilitation of transmission to a new host

Phylogenetic analysis of the neuraminidase gene of pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus circulating in the South American region

Molecular characterization of circulating influenza A viruses (IAV) in all regions of the world is essential to detect mutations potentially involved in increased virulence, anti-viral resistance and immune escape. In order to gain insight into these matters, a phylogenetic analysis of the neuraminidase (NA) gene of 146 pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm) influenza A virus strains isolated in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay from 2009 to 2013 was performed. Comparison of vaccine strain A/California/7/2009 included in the influenza vaccine recommended for the Southern hemisphere from 2010 through 2013 influenza seasons and strains isolated in South America revealed several amino acid substitutions. Mapping of these substitutions revealed that most of them are located at the surface of the protein and do not interfere with the active site. 3.4% of the strains enrolled in these studies carried the H275Y substitution that confers resistance to oseltamivir. Strains isolated in South America differ from vaccine in two predicted B-cell epitope regions present at positions 102-103 and 351-352 of the NA protein. Moreover, vaccine and strains isolated in Paraguay differ also in an epitope present at position 229. These differences among strains isolated in South America and vaccine strain suggests that these epitopes may not be present in strains isolated in this region. A potential new N-linked glycosylation site was observed in the NA protein of an H1N1pdm IAV strain isolated in Brazil. The results of these studies revealed several genetic and antigenic differences in the NA of H1N1pdm IAV among vaccine and strains circulating in South America. All these findings contribute to our understanding of the course of genetic and antigenic evolution of H1N1pdm IAV populations circulating in the South American region and, consequently, contribute to the study and selection of future and more appropriate vaccines and anti-viral drugs.

Inferring influenza global transmission networks without complete phylogenetic information

Influenza is one of the most severe respiratory infections affecting humans throughout the world, yet the dynamics of its global transmission network are still contentious. Here, I describe a novel combination of phylogenetics, time series, and graph theory to analyze 14.25 years of data stratified in space and in time, focusing on the main target of the human immune response, the hemagglutinin gene. While bypassing the complete phylogenetic inference of huge data sets, the method still extracts information suggesting that waves of genetic or of nucleotide diversity circulate continuously around the globe for subtypes that undergo sustained transmission over several seasons, such as H3N2 and pandemic H1N1/09, while diversity of prepandemic H1N1 viruses had until 2009 a noncontinuous transmission pattern consistent with a source/sink model. Irrespective of the shift in the structure of H1N1 diversity circulation with the emergence of the pandemic H1N1/09 strain, US prevalence peaks during the winter months when genetic diversity is at its lowest. This suggests that a dominant strain is generally responsible for epidemics and that monitoring genetic and/or nucleotide diversity in real time could provide public health agencies with an indirect estimate of prevalence.

Predicting the emergence of H3N2 influenza viruses reveals contrasted modes of evolution of HA and NA antigens

Vaccine design for rapidly changing viruses is based on empirical surveillance of strains circulating in a given season to assess those that will most likely spread during the next season. The choice of which strains to include in the vaccine is critical, as an erroneous decision can lead to a nonimmunized human population that will then be at risk in the face of an epidemic or, worse, a pandemic. Here, we present the first steps toward a very general phylogenetic approach to predict the emergence of novel viruses. Our genomic model builds upon natural features of viral evolution such as selection and recombination / reassortment, and incorporates episodic bursts of evolution and or of recombination. As a proof-of-concept, we assess the performance of this model in a retrospective study, focusing: (i) on the emergence of an unexpected H3N2 influenza strain in 2007, and (ii) on a longitudinal design. Based on the analysis of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes, our results show a lack of predictive power in both experimental designs, but shed light on the mode of evolution of these two antigens: (i) supporting the lack of significance of recombination in the evolution of this influenza virus, and (ii) showing that HA evolves episodically while NA changes gradually.

Phylodynamics of the emergence of influenza viruses after cross-species transmission

Human populations are constantly exposed to emerging pathogens such as influenza A viruses that result from cross-species transmissions. Generally these sporadic events are evolutionary dead-ends, but occasionally, viruses establish themselves in a new host that offers a novel genomic context to which the virus must adjust to avoid attenuation. However, the dynamics of this process are unknown. Here we present a novel method to characterize the time it takes to G+C composition at third codon positions (GC3 content) of influenza viruses to adjust to that of a new host. We compare the inferred dynamics in two subtypes, H1N1 and H3N2, based on complete genomes of viruses circulating in humans, swine and birds between 1900-2009. Our results suggest that both subtypes have the same fast-adjusting genes, which are not necessarily those with the highest absolute rates of evolution, but those with the most relaxed selective pressures. Our analyses reveal that NA and NS2 genes adjust the fastest to a new host and that selective pressures of H3N2 viruses are relaxed faster than for H1N1. The asymmetric nature of these processes suggests that viruses with the greatest adjustment potential to humans are coming from both birds and swine for H3N2, but only from birds for H1N1.

Extreme evolutionary conservation of functionally important regions in H1N1 influenza proteome

The H1N1 subtype of influenza A virus has caused two of the four documented pandemics and is responsible for seasonal epidemic outbreaks, presenting a continuous threat to public health. Co-circulating antigenically divergent influenza strains significantly complicates vaccine development and use. Here, by combining evolutionary, structural, functional, and population information about the H1N1 proteome, we seek to answer two questions: (1) do residues on the protein surfaces evolve faster than the protein core residues consistently across all proteins that constitute the influenza proteome? and (2) in spite of the rapid evolution of surface residues in influenza proteins, are there any protein regions on the protein surface that do not evolve? To answer these questions, we first built phylogenetically-aware models of the patterns of surface and interior substitutions. Employing these models, we found a single coherent pattern of faster evolution on the protein surfaces that characterizes all influenza proteins. The pattern is consistent with the events of inter-species reassortment, the worldwide introduction of the flu vaccine in the early 80's, as well as the differences caused by the geographic origins of the virus. Next, we developed an automated computational pipeline to comprehensively detect regions of the protein surface residues that were 100% conserved over multiple years and in multiple host species. We identified conserved regions on the surface of 10 influenza proteins spread across all avian, swine, and human strains; with the exception of a small group of isolated strains that affected the conservation of three proteins. Surprisingly, these regions were also unaffected by genetic variation in the pandemic 2009 H1N1 viral population data obtained from deep sequencing experiments. Finally, the conserved regions were intrinsically related to the intra-viral macromolecular interaction interfaces. Our study may provide further insights towards the identification of novel protein targets for influenza antivirals.

Comparative dynamics and distribution of influenza drug resistance acquisition to protein m2 and neuraminidase inhibitors

Although efficient influenza vaccines are designed on a regular basis, the only protection of human populations against an unforeseen virus such as during the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 might be antiviral drugs. Adamantanes and neuraminidase inhibitors (Oseltamivir) represent two classes of such drugs that target the viral matrix protein 2 and neuraminidase, respectively. Although the emergence of resistance to both drugs has been described, the timing and spread of the acquisition of either single or dual resistances by different hosts is still unclear. Using a multilayered phylogenetic approach based on relaxed molecular clocks and large-scale maximum likelihood approaches, we show that Adamantane resistance evolved multiple times in various subtypes and hosts, possibly in breeding contexts (swine); and Oseltamivir resistance was also found in different subtypes and hosts, but its transmission is only sustained in humans. Furthermore, the dynamics of the emergence of antiviral resistance were examined for each drug. This showed that although the first mutations conferring resistance to Adamantanes precede US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval, general resistance emerged 15-38 years post-drug approval. This is in contrast to Oseltamivir resistance mutations that emerged at most 7 years after FDA approval of the drug. This study demonstrates the power of large-scale analyses to uncover and monitor the emergence dynamics of drug resistance.

Bayesian coalescent analysis of pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus circulating in the South American region

The first influenza pandemic of this century was declared in April of 2009, with the emergence of a novel H1N1 influenza A virus strain (H1N1pdm). Understanding the evolution of H1N1pdm populations within the South American region is essential for studying global diversification, emergence, resistance and vaccine efficacy. In order to gain insight into these matters, we have performed a Bayesian coalescent Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene sequences of all available and comparable HA and NA sequences obtained from H1N1pdm IAV circulating in the South American region. High evolutionary rates and fast population growths characterize the population dynamics of H1N1pdm strains in this region of the world. A significant contribution of first codon position to the mean evolutionary rate was found for both genes studied, revealing a high contribution of non-synonymous substitutions to the mean substitution rate. In the 178days period covered by these studies, substitutions in all HA epitope regions can be observed. HA substitutions D239G/N and Q310H have been observed only in Brazilian patients. While substitution D239G/N is not particularly associated to a specific genetic lineage, all strains bearing substitution Q310H were assigned to clade 6, suggesting a founder effect. None of the substitutions found in the NA proteins of H1N1pdm strains isolated in South America appears sufficiently close to affect the drug binding pocket for the three NA inhibitor antivirals tested. A more detailed analysis of NA proteins revealed epitope differences among 2010 vaccine and H1N1pdm IAV strains circulating in the South American region.