Maximum predictive power of the microarray-based models for clinical outcomes is limited by correlation between endpoint and gene expression profile

Using logistic regression to improve the prognostic value of microarray gene expression data sets: application to early-stage squamous cell carcinoma of the lung and triple negative breast carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Numerous microarray-based prognostic gene expression signatures of primary neoplasms have been published but often with little concurrence between studies, thus limiting their clinical utility. We describe a methodology using logistic regression, which circumvents limitations of conventional Kaplan Meier analysis. We applied this approach to a thrice-analyzed and published squamous cell carcinoma (SQCC) of the lung data set, with the objective of identifying gene expressions predictive of early death versus long survival in early-stage disease. A similar analysis was applied to a data set of triple negative breast carcinoma cases, which present similar clinical challenges.

METHODS

Important to our approach is the selection of homogenous patient groups for comparison. In the lung study, we selected two groups (including only stages I and II), equal in size, of earliest deaths and longest survivors. Genes varying at least four-fold were tested by logistic regression for accuracy of prediction (area under a ROC plot). The gene list was refined by applying two sliding-window analyses and by validations using a leave-one-out approach and model building with validation subsets. In the breast study, a similar logistic regression analysis was used after selecting appropriate cases for comparison.

RESULTS

A total of 8594 variable genes were tested for accuracy in predicting earliest deaths versus longest survivors in SQCC. After applying the two sliding window and the leave-one-out analyses, 24 prognostic genes were identified; most of them were B-cell related. When the same data set of stage I and II cases was analyzed using a conventional Kaplan Meier (KM) approach, we identified fewer immune-related genes among the most statistically significant hits; when stage III cases were included, most of the prognostic genes were missed. Interestingly, logistic regression analysis of the breast cancer data set identified many immune-related genes predictive of clinical outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Stratification of cases based on clinical data, careful selection of two groups for comparison, and the application of logistic regression analysis substantially improved predictive accuracy in comparison to conventional KM approaches. B cell-related genes dominated the list of prognostic genes in early stage SQCC of the lung and triple negative breast cancer.

Genomic signatures and gene networking: challenges and promises

This is an editorial report of the supplement to BMC Genomics that includes 15 papers selected from the BIOCOMP'10 - The 2010 International Conference on Bioinformatics & Computational Biology as well as other sources with a focus on genomics studies.

BIOCOMP'10 was held on July 12-15 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The congress covered a large variety of research areas, and genomics was one of the major focuses because of the fast development in this field. We set out to launch a supplement to BMC Genomics with manuscripts selected from this congress and invited submissions. With a rigorous peer review process, we selected 15 manuscripts that showed work in cutting-edge genomics fields and proposed innovative methodology. We hope this supplement presents the current computational and statistical challenges faced in genomics studies, and shows the enormous promises and opportunities in the genomic future.