The United States and Canada as a coupled epidemiological system: an example from hepatitis A

Public health impact and cost effectiveness of routine childhood vaccination for hepatitis a in Jordan: a dynamic model approach

Background

As the socioeconomic conditions in Jordan have improved over recent decades the disease and economic burden of Hepatitis A has increased. The purpose of this study is to assess the potential health and economic impact of a two-dose hepatitis A vaccine program covering one-year old children in Jordan.

Methods

We adapted an age-structured population model of hepatitis A transmission dynamics to project the epidemiologic and economic impact of vaccinating one-year old children for 50 years in Jordan. The epidemiologic model was calibrated using local data on hepatitis A in Jordan. These data included seroprevalence and incidence data from the Jordan Ministry of Health as well as hospitalization data from King Abdullah University Hospital in Irbid, Jordan. We assumed 90% of all children would be vaccinated with the two-dose regimen by two years of age. The economic evaluation adopted a societal perspective and measured benefits using the quality-adjusted life-year (QALY).

Results

The modeled vaccination program reduced the incidence of hepatitis A in Jordan by 99%, 50 years after its introduction. The model projected 4.26 million avoided hepatitis A infections, 1.42 million outpatient visits, 22,475 hospitalizations, 508 fulminant cases, 95 liver transplants, and 76 deaths over a 50 year time horizon. In addition, we found, over a 50 year time horizon, the vaccination program would gain 37,502 QALYs and save over $42.6 million in total costs. The vaccination program became cost-saving within 6 years of its introduction and was highly cost-effective during the first 5 years.

Conclusion

A vaccination program covering one-year old children is projected to be a cost-saving intervention that will significantly reduce the public health and economic burden of hepatitis A in Jordan.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3034-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Public Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis A Vaccination in the United States: A Disease Transmission Dynamic Modeling Approach

OBJECTIVE

To assess the population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of hepatitis A vaccination programs in the United States.

METHODS

We developed an age-structured population model of hepatitis A transmission dynamics to evaluate two policies of administering a two-dose hepatitis A vaccine to children aged 12 to 18 months: 1) universal routine vaccination as recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices in 2006 and 2) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices's previous regional policy of routine vaccination of children living in states with high hepatitis A incidence. Inputs were obtained from the published literature, public sources, and clinical trial data. The model was fitted to hepatitis A seroprevalence (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey II and III) and reported incidence from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (1980-1995). We used a societal perspective and projected costs (in 2013 US $), quality-adjusted life-years, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, and other outcomes over the period 2006 to 2106.

RESULTS

On average, universal routine hepatitis A vaccination prevented 259,776 additional infections, 167,094 outpatient visits, 4781 hospitalizations, and 228 deaths annually. Compared with the regional vaccination policy, universal routine hepatitis A vaccination was cost saving. In scenario analysis, universal vaccination prevented 94,957 infections, 46,179 outpatient visits, 1286 hospitalizations, and 15 deaths annually and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $21,223/quality-adjusted life-year when herd protection was ignored.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model predicted that universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination led to significant reductions in hepatitis A mortality and morbidity. Consequently, universal vaccination was cost saving compared with a regional vaccination policy. Herd protection effects of hepatitis A vaccination programs had a significant impact on hepatitis A mortality, morbidity, and cost-effectiveness ratios.

The role of ethnicity and travel on Hepatitis A vaccination coverage and disease incidence in Arizona at the United States-Mexico Border

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis A (HAV) incidence has decreased in the United States, yet regional disparities persist. The role of international travel has become increasingly important in HAV transmission. We compared the relative burden of HAV in border and non-border regions in Arizona and examined the role of travel in sustaining HAV transmission.

METHODS

HAV vaccination coverage was calculated by age and region, using Arizona State Immunization Information System data. Incidence, demographics, and risk factors of cases reported through Arizona's infectious disease surveillance system between 2006 and 2011 were analyzed.

RESULTS

Hepatitis A incidence was higher in the border region of Arizona. Compared with the rest of Arizona, one-dose coverage in children<15 years was lower in the border region until 2008. Second dose coverage was lower in the border region, particularly among Spanish speakers. International travel among cases was generally high; however, in the border region cases were more likely to visit Mexico or South/Central America (94% vs. 80%, P value = 0.01) and be Hispanic (68% vs. 42%, P value = 0.0003).

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of HAV continue to be higher in the Arizona border region; the risk appears particularly high among Hispanics with recent travel in the Americas. Border surveillance should be emphasized, along with vaccination of all travelers, to continue to decrease and control HAV.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of viral hepatitis A in Italy

Viral hepatitis A is still common in Italy, especially in Southern regions. In this study, a metapopulation model for hepatitis A virus (HAV) transmission is proposed and analyzed. Analytical results on the asymptotic and transient behaviors of the system are carried out. Based on the available Italian movement data, a national spatial contact matrix at the regional level, which could be used for new studies on the transmission dynamics of other infectious diseases, is derived for modeling fluxes of individuals. Despite the small number of fitted parameters, model simulations are in good agreement with the observed average HAV incidence in all regions. Our results suggest that the mass vaccination program introduced in one Italian region only (Puglia, the one with the highest endemicity level) could have played a role in the decline of HAV incidence in the country as a whole. The only notable exception is represented by Campania, a Southern region showing a high endemicity level, which is not substantially affected by HAV dynamics in Puglia. Finally, our results highlight that the continuation of the vaccination campaign in Puglia would have a relevant impact in decreasing long-term HAV prevalence, especially in Southern Italy.