Body mass index and metabolic factors predict glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria over 20 years in a high-risk population

Clinical study of different prediction models in predicting diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Among older adults, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is widely recognized as one of the most prevalent diseases. Diabetic nephropathy (DN) is a frequent complication of DM, mainly characterized by renal microvascular damage. Early detection, aggressive prevention, and cure of DN are key to improving prognosis. Establishing a diagnostic and predictive model for DN is crucial in auxiliary diagnosis.

AIM

To investigate the factors that impact T2DM complicated with DN and utilize this information to develop a predictive model.

METHODS

The clinical data of 210 patients diagnosed with T2DM and admitted to the First People's Hospital of Wenling between August 2019 and August 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. According to whether the patients had DN, they were divided into the DN group (complicated with DN) and the non-DN group (without DN). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore factors affecting DN in patients with T2DM. The data were randomly split into a training set (n = 147) and a test set (n = 63) in a 7:3 ratio using a random function. The training set was used to construct the nomogram, decision tree, and random forest models, and the test set was used to evaluate the prediction performance of the model by comparing the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, recall, precision, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

Among the 210 patients with T2DM, 74 (35.34%) had DN. The validation dataset showed that the accuracies of the nomogram, decision tree, and random forest models in predicting DN in patients with T2DM were 0.746, 0.714, and 0.730, respectively. The sensitivities were 0.710, 0.710, and 0.806, respectively; the specificities were 0.844, 0.875, and 0.844, respectively; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the patients were 0.811, 0.735, and 0.850, respectively. The Delong test results revealed that the AUC values of the decision tree model were lower than those of the random forest and nomogram models (P < 0.05), whereas the difference in AUC values of the random forest and column-line graph models was not statistically significant (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Among the three prediction models, random forest performs best and can help identify patients with T2DM at high risk of DN.

Utilisation and clinical outcomes of kidney transplants from deceased donors with albuminuria in the UK: a national cohort study

BACKGROUND

Urinalysis is a standard component of potential deceased kidney donor assessment in the UK. The value of albuminuria as a biomarker for organ quality is uncertain. We examined the relationship between deceased donor albuminuria and kidney utilisation, survival, and function.

METHODS

We performed a national cohort study on adult deceased donors and kidney transplant recipients between 2016 and 2020, using data from the UK Transplant Registry. We examined the influence of donor albuminuria, defined as ≥ 2 + on dipstick testing, on kidney utilisation, early graft function, graft failure, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

RESULTS

Eighteen % (1681/9309) of consented donors had albuminuria. After adjustment for confounders, kidneys from donors with albuminuria were less likely to be accepted for transplantation (74% vs 82%; OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.81). Of 9834 kidney transplants included in our study, 1550 (16%) came from donors with albuminuria. After a median follow-up of 2 years, 8% (118/1550) and 9% (706/8284) of transplants from donors with and without albuminuria failed, respectively. There was no association between donor albuminuria and graft failure (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.11). There was also no association with delayed graft function, patient survival, or eGFR at 1 or 3 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests reluctance in the UK to utilise kidneys from deceased donors with dipstick albuminuria but no evidence of an association with graft survival or function. This may represent a potential to expand organ utilisation without negatively impacting transplant outcomes.

Gamma-glutamyl transferase variability can predict the development of end-stage of renal disease: a nationwide population-based study

The aim of this study is to investigate whether GGT variability is able to predict the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The study subjects were Koreans who conducted health exams supported by the Korean National Health Insurance Corporation during 2009-2012 (baseline). After excluding individuals aged < 40 years, heavy alcoholics, or those with histories of chronic liver disease or ESRD, we followed 6,058,995 individuals. We calculated the average successive variability (ASV) of GGT values during the 5 years before the baseline as a parameter of variability. Using Cox proportional analyses, we evaluated the risk of ESRD according to GGT ASV quartiles, defined as the initiation of renal replacement therapy or kidney transplantation, or December 31, 2016. During 38,663,279.3 person-years of follow-up, 12,057 cases of ESRD were identified. Compared with GGT ASV quartile 1, the risk of ESRD was higher in ASV quartiles 3-4 and increased serially, even after adjustment for several metabolic parameters, baseline renal function, presence of comorbidities, low income, and baseline GGT and hemoglobin level. The fully adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of GGT ASV quartiles 3 and 4 were 1.06 (1.01-1.12) and 1.12 (1.06-1.18), respectively. In conclusion, GGT variability is a putative risk factor for ESRD in Koreans.

Waist height ratio predicts chronic kidney disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis, 1998-2019

BACKGROUND

The incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases each year, and obesity is an important risk factor for CKD. The main anthropometric indicators currently reflecting obesity are body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), but the rationality and merits of various indicators vary. This article aims to find whether the WHtR is a more suitable physical measurement that can predict CKD.

METHODS

Pubmed, embase, the cochrane library, and web of science were systematically searched for articles published between 1998 and 2019 screening CKD through physical indicators. Two reviewers independently screened the literature according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, extracted the data, and evaluated the quality of the methodology included in the study. Meta-analysis used the Stata 12.0 software.

RESULTS

Nine studies were included, with a total of 202,283 subjects. Meta-analysis showed that according to the analysis of different genders in 6 studies, regardless of sex, WHtR was the area with the largest area under the curve (AUC). Except WHtR and visceral fat index (VFI) in women which showed no statistical difference, WHtR and other indicators were statistically different. In three studies without gender-based stratification, the area under the curve AUC for WHtR remained the largest, but only the difference between WHtR and BMI was statistically significant. When the Chinese population was considered as a subgroup, the area under the curve AUC for WHtR was the largest. Except for WHtR and VFI which showed no statistical difference in women, there was a statistically significant difference between WHtR and other indicators in men and women.

CONCLUSION

WHtR could be better prediction for CKD relative to other physical measurements. It also requires higher-quality prospective studies to verify the clinical application of WHtR.

Body mass index is an independent predictive factor for kidney function evaluated by glomerular filtration rate in a community-dwelling population

BACKGROUND

The effects of overweight and obesity on kidney function have since been identified and become a subject of increased study and concern. But the association between body mass index (BMI) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is not well characterized. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between BMI and eGFR.

METHODS

To better understand the relationship between BMI and kidney function, we investigated the association between BMI and eGFR using both the baseline BMI level and the follow-up eGFR level and investigated the relationship between the change in BMI and the change in eGFR in 1447 patients from a 4.8-year prospective study in Beijing, People's Republic of China.

RESULTS

In multiple linear regression analysis, age, antihypertensive treatment, and BMI were negatively associated with the follow-up eGFR levels in all participants (R = -0.622, -0.926, and -0.266, respectively; P < 0.05), or in the elderly (R = -0.883, -1.035, and -0.630, respectively; P < 0.05); sex was found to be associated with the follow-up eGFR levels independently not only in all participants (R = 6.783; P < 0.001), but also in the elderly (R = 3.518; P < 0.05). In addition, the change in eGFR levels was positively related to age, the change in LDL-C, the change in TC, and the change in SBP, but negatively related to the change in BMI and the change in HDL-C (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study clearly indicated that BMI is an independent predictive factor for kidney function evaluated by the eGFR level during a median 4.8 years of follow-up in Chinese population.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, prospective cohort study.

Long-term risk for end-stage kidney disease and death in a large population-based cohort

Knowledge of metabolic risk factors for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in the general population is limited when considering the competing event death in risk analysis. The aim of our prospective observational study was to investigate how blood pressure and metabolic factors might influence the risks for ESKD and death before ESKD in a large Austrian population-based cohort with long-term follow-up. 177,255 participants (53.8% women; mean age 42.5 years) were recruited between 1988 and 2005 and linked to the Austrian Dialysis and Transplant Registry and the National Mortality Registry. Over a mean follow-up of 16 years 358 participants reached ESKD and 19,512 participants died. Applying fully adjusted cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models elevated fasting blood glucose, hypertension, hypertrigylceridemia and hypercholesterolemia were associated with a higher relative risk for ESKD than for death before ESKD, whereas elevated γ-glutamyltransferase was associated with an increased relative risk of death but not ESKD. Results were similar using continuous or categorical exposure variable measures in the general cohort but differed in selected high-risk populations. These findings might help improve the design of renal risk factor modification trials and kidney disease awareness and prevention programs in the general population, which may ultimately decrease the burden of ESKD.

A new plasma biomarker enhance the clinical prediction of postoperative acute kidney injury in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The ratio of serum γ-glutamyl transferase (GGT) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (GGT/ALT) is a marker for evaluating effects to antivirotic treatment and a helpful predictive factor for the prognosis of Child-Pugh A hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after surgery. The relationship between the incidence of postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) and preoperative GGT/ALT is studied in hepatectomized hepatitis B- or C- associated HCC patients.

METHODS

A total of 253 hepatitis B or C virus-related HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy between September 2012 and August 2016 at our hospital were included in the retrospective study. Serum ALT and GGT value were recorded, and the GGT/ALT was computed. AKI was defined that based on the "Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria".

RESULTS

AKI was observed in 22 (8.7%) patients. Mean GGT/ALT of patients with AKI was significantly higher than in those without it (6.0 vs 2.1, P<0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed an increase in GGT/ALT as an independent risk factor for AKI in hepatitis B- or C- associated HCC patients, particularly in patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 or A staged HCC (odds ratio (OR) 1.400, P<0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that ALT (OR 0.966, P=0.044) was somewhat inversely associated with the incidence of AKI in hepatitis B- or C- associated HCC patients. The best cutoff point of GGT/ALT was 2.92. Multivariate analysis showed that preoperative GGT/ALT ≥2.92 predicted poor prognosis of postoperative AKI in patients with HCC after hepatectomy (odds ratio 17.697, P<0.001). After propensity score matching, preoperative GGT/ALT ≥2.92 remained an independent risk factor for AKI in HCC patients (OR 13.947, P=0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

The GGT/ALT of patients with AKI was significantly higher than those without it. Evaluation of GGT/ALT before surgery can be a helpful predictive tool for postoperative AKI in hepatitis B- or C- associated HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy, particularly in patients with BCLC stage 0 or A staged HCC. Hepatitis B- or C- associated HCC patients with low ALT especially within the normal range may have a high risk of AKI. However, the reason remains to be elucidated.

An expanded nationwide view of chronic kidney disease in Aboriginal Australians

We summarize new knowledge that has accrued in recent years on chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Indigenous Australians. CKD refers to all stages of preterminal kidney disease, including end‐stage kidney failure (ESKF), whether or not a person receives renal replacement therapy (RRT). Recently recorded rates of ESKF, RRT, non‐dialysis CKD hospitalizations and CKD attributed deaths were, respectively, more than sixfold, eightfold, eightfold and threefold those of non‐Indigenous Australians, with age adjustment, although all except the RRT rates are still under‐enumerated. However, the nationwide average Indigenous incidence rate of RRT appears to have stabilized. The median age of Indigenous people with ESKF was about 30 years less than for non‐Indigenous people, and 84% of them received RTT, while only half of non‐Indigenous people with ESKF did so. The first‐ever (2012) nationwide health survey data showed elevated levels of CKD markers in Indigenous people at the community level. For all CKD parameters, rates among Indigenous people themselves were strikingly correlated with increasing remoteness of residence and socio‐economic disadvantage, and there was a female predominance in remote areas. The burden of renal disease in Australian Indigenous people is seriously understated by Global Burden of Disease Mortality methodology, because it employs underlying cause of death only, and because deaths of people on RRT are frequently attributed to non‐renal causes.

These data give a much expanded view of CKD in Aboriginal people. Methodologic approaches must be remedied for a full appreciation of the burden, costs and outcomes of the disease, to direct appropriate policy development.

Excellent review on the kidney health in the Aboriginal communities in Australia, describing the challenges and important priorities.

Anthropometric and Metabolic Risk Factors for ESRD Are Disease-Specific: Results from a Large Population-Based Cohort Study in Austria

BACKGROUND

Anthropometric and metabolic risk factors for all-cause end-stage renal disease (ESRD) may vary in their impact depending on the specific primary renal disease.

METHODS

In this Austrian population-based prospective cohort study (n = 185,341; 53.9% women) the following data were collected between 1985 and 2005: age, sex, body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose (FBG) from 1988, blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and smoking status. These data were merged with the Austrian Dialysis and Transplant Registry to identify ESRD patients. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause ESRD as well as for cause-specific ESRD due to the following primary renal diseases: autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), vascular nephropathy (VN), diabetic nephropathy (DN) and other diseases (OD).

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 17.5 years 403 participants developed ESRD (ADPKD 36, VN 97, DN 86, and OD 184). All parameters except TG and GGT were significantly associated with all-cause ESRD risk. Particular cause-specific ESRD risk factor patterns were found: for ADPKD increased risk from hypertension (HR 11.55); for VN from smoking (HR 1.81), hypertension (HR 2.37), TG (≥5.70 vs. <1.17 mmol/L: HR 9.27); for DN from smoking (HR 1.77), BMI (≥30 vs. 18.5-24.9 kg/m2: HR 7.55), FBG (≥6.94 vs. <5.55 mmol/L: HR 7.67), hypertension (HR 1.08), TG (≥5.70 vs. <1.17 mmol/L: HR 2.02), GGT (HR 2.14); and for OD from hypertension (HR 2.29), TG (≥5.70 vs. <1.17 mmol/L: HR 6.99) and TC (≥6.22 vs. <5.18 mmol/L: HR 1.56).

CONCLUSIONS

Particular anthropometric and metabolic ESRD risk factors differ in importance depending on the primary renal disease. This needs to be considered for future preventive and therapeutic strategies addressing cause-specific ESRD.

Effects of Weight Loss Speed on Kidney Function Differ Depending on Body Mass Index in Nondiabetic Healthy People: A Prospective Cohort

Background

Obesity is associated with diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases. However, it has been reported that weight loss is associated with incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) in healthy males. The purpose of this prospective cohort study is to investigate the effects of weight loss on kidney function in healthy people in terms of body mass index (BMI) and gender.

Methods

A total of 8447 nondiabetic healthy people were enrolled in the Saitama Cardiometabolic Disease and Organ Impairment Study, Japan. Relationships between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) change, BMI, and BMI change were evaluated using 3D-scatter plots with spline and generalized additive models (GAMs) adjusted for baseline characteristics.

Results

The subjects were stratified into four groups according to BMI. The mean±standard deviations for males and females were, respectively, 40.11±9.49, and 40.3±9.71 years for age and 76.39±17.72 and 71.49±18.4 ml/min/1.73m² for eGFR. GAMs showed that a decreasing BMI change (<-1 kg/m²/year) was associated with a decreasing eGFR change in males with high normal BMIs (22 kg/m²≤BMI<25 kg/m²). A decreasing BMI change (<-2 kg/m²/year) was associated with an increasing eGFR change in overweight males (25 kg/m²≤BMI). Among underweight females (BMI<18.5 kg/m²), decreasing BMI was observed with decreasing eGFR.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that the benefit and risk of weight loss in relation to kidney function differs depending on BMI and weight loss speed, especially in males.

Predictive Value of Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase Levels for Contrast-Induced Nephropathy in Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Who Underwent Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) is associated with adverse short- and long-term outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) for risk of CIN in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction who underwent PPCI. A total of 473 patients were enrolled in the study. A relative increase in serum creatinine ≥25%, or an absolute increase ≥0.5 mg/dl, from the baseline within 72 hours of contrast exposure was defined as CIN. Patients were divided into 3 groups according to GGT tertiles (tertile 1, GGT <19 U/L; tertile 2, GGT 19 to 33 U/L; and tertile 3, GGT >33 U/L) on admission. Demographics, clinical risk factors, laboratory parameters, CIN incidence, and other inhospital clinical outcomes were compared among GGT tertiles. CIN incidence was significantly higher in tertile 3 (29%) compared with tertiles 1 (11%) and 2 (11%, p <0.001). Inhospital death incidence was significantly increased across tertiles (from tertile 1 to tertiles 2 and 3, 1%, 4%, and 5%, respectively, p <0.05). In receiver operating characteristic analysis, a threshold value of GGT >26.5 U/L had 70% sensitivity and 60% specificity for CIN. After including variables found significant in univariate analysis, the presence of diabetes mellitus (odds ratio [OR] 1.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22 to 2.31, p <0.001), C-reactive protein (for each 1 mg/L increase; OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.02, p = 0.007), contrast volume (for each 1-ml increase; OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.02, p = 0.012), and GGT >26.5 U/L (OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.48 to 4.53, p <0.001) were found as independent associates of CIN in multivariate regression analysis. Each 1 U/L increase in GGT was also associated with CIN risk (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.06, p <0.001). In conclusion, GGT on admission was a significant and independent predictor of CIN after PPCI in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

Sex- and Time-Dependent Patterns in Risk Factors of End-Stage Renal Disease: A Large Austrian Cohort with up to 20 Years of Follow-Up

Objective

We investigated the association between metabolic factors and End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) and quantified the magnitude of their influence dependent on sex and time of exposure up to 20 years.

Material and Methods

A prospective cohort study was conducted to determine risk factors for the development of ESRD. From 1988 to 2005 185,341 persons (53.9% women) participated in the “Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Promotion Programme” (VHM&PP). Data on body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose (FBG), systolic (BPsys) and diastolic (BPdia) blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and smoking status were collected. Data of the population-based VHM&PP were merged with the Austrian Dialysis and Transplant Registry. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for ESRD, stratified by sex and 5-year time intervals.

Results

During a mean follow-up of 17.5 years 403 patients (39.1% women) developed ESRD. Significant risk factors were: BMI (per 1 kg/m²) HR 1.04 (95% CI 1.01–1.06), FBG (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.09 (1.05–1.12), BPsys (per 5 mmHg) HR 1.10 (1.07–1.14), BPdia (per 5 mmHg) HR 1.09 (1.03–1.15), TG (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.07 (1.02–1.13), TC (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.22 (1.13–1.32). We observed a sex-specific risk pattern with an increased ESRD risk for men for increasing TG and smoking, and for women for increasing BMI and GGT. In time interval analyses BPsys and TC were associated with early ESRD onset, whereas BMI, FBG, BPdia and GGT were associated with later onset.

Conclusions

Anthropometric and metabolic factors are differentially associated with the long-term risk for ESRD in a sex- and time-dependent manner. Consideration of these patterns in preventive and therapeutic strategies could have an impact on ESRD incidence.

The association between underweight and the development of albuminuria is different between sexes in relatively healthy Korean subjects

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on the association between underweight and albuminuria. The aim of this study is to verify the effect of underweight on the development of albuminuria.

METHODS

Participants who underwent two health check-ups with a 2-year interval at a tertiary hospital in Korea between 2002 and 2009 were studied. After exclusion of participants with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) or dipstick albuminuria ≥1+ at the first check-up, 53 876 participants were enrolled. We measured the incidence of albuminuria at the second check-up and calculated the odds ratio (OR) for the development of albuminuria according to body mass index (BMI).

RESULTS

After 2 years, 746 cases of incident albuminuria were observed among 53 876 participants. The effect of BMI on the development of albuminuria was modified by sex in a multivariate logistic model with adjustment for age, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, uric acid, eGFR, current smoking status and alcohol intake (P-value for interaction <0.001). Compared with participants in the normal weight range (BMI, 18.5-22.9), the ORs for incident albuminuria were 1.93 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.35-2.76; P ≤ 0.001], 1.19 (0.84-1.67; P = 0.329) and 0.71 (0.43-1.17; P = 0.177) in underweight (BMI, <18.5), overweight (BMI, 23.0-24.9) and obese (BMI, ≥25) women. However, the ORs were 0.9 (95% CI, 0.39-2.05; P = 0.794), 1.08 (0.84-1.38; P = 0.567) and 1.38 (1.09-1.75; P = 0.007) for each corresponding group of men.

CONCLUSIONS

Underweight was significantly associated with the development of albuminuria after 2 years in relatively healthy Korean females, but this relationship was not significant in males. This study suggests the need for more studies on the role of underweight in renal injury in men and women.