Geomagnetic disturbances may be environmental risk factor for multiple sclerosis: an ecological study of 111 locations in 24 countries

Systemic lupus Erythematosus and geomagnetic disturbances: a time series analysis

BACKGROUND

To examine the influence of solar cycle and geomagnetic effects on SLE disease activity.

METHODS

The data used for the analysis consisted of 327 observations of 27-day Physician Global Assessment (PGA) averages from January 1996 to February 2020. The considered geomagnetic indices were the AP index (a daily average level for geomagnetic activity), sunspot number index R (measure of the area of solar surface covered by spots), the F10.7 index (measure of the noise level generated by the sun at a wavelength of 10.7 cm at the earth's orbit), the AU index (upper auroral electrojet index), and high energy (> 60 Mev) proton flux events. Geomagnetic data were obtained from the Goddard Space Flight Center Space Physics Data Facility. A time series decomposition of the PGA averages was performed as the first step. The linear relationships between the PGA and the geomagnetic indices were examined using parametric statistical methods such as Pearson correlation and linear regression, while the nonlinear relationships were examined using nonparametric statistical methods such as Spearman's rho and Kernel regression.

RESULTS

After time series deconstruction of PGA averages, the seasonality explained a significant fraction of the variance of the time series (R2 = 38.7%) with one cycle completed every 16 years. The analysis of the short-term (27-day) relationships indicated that increases in geomagnetic activity Ap index (p < 0.1) and high energy proton fluxes (> 60 Mev) (p < 0.05) were associated with decreases in SLE disease activity, while increases in the sunspot number index R anticipated decreases in the SLE disease activity expressed as PGA (p < 0.05). The short-term correlations became statistically insignificant after adjusting for multiple comparisons using Bonferroni correction. The analysis of the long-term (297 day) relationships indicated stronger negative association between changes in the PGA and changes in the sunspot number index R (p < 0.01), AP index (p < 0.01), and the F10.7 index (p < 0.01). The long-term correlations remained statistically significant after adjusting for multiple comparisons using Bonferroni correction.

CONCLUSION

The seasonality of the PGA averages (one cycle every 16 years) explains a significant fraction of the variance of the time series. Geomagnetic disturbances, including the level of geomagnetic activity, sunspot numbers, and high proton flux events may influence SLE disease activity. Studies of other geographic locales are needed to validate these findings.

Probability estimation of a Carrington-like geomagnetic storm

Intense geomagnetic storms can cause severe damage to electrical systems and communications. This work proposes a counting process with Weibull inter-occurrence times in order to estimate the probability of extreme geomagnetic events. It is found that the scale parameter of the inter-occurrence time distribution grows exponentially with the absolute value of the intensity threshold defining the storm, whereas the shape parameter keeps rather constant. The model is able to forecast the probability of occurrence of an event for a given intensity threshold; in particular, the probability of occurrence on the next decade of an extreme event of a magnitude comparable or larger than the well-known Carrington event of 1859 is explored, and estimated to be between 0.46% and 1.88% (with a 95% confidence), a much lower value than those reported in the existing literature.

Shifting paradigms in multiple sclerosis: from disease-specific, through population-specific toward patient-specific

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In recent years we notice paradigm shifts in the understanding of multiple sclerosis (MS), leading to important transition in the patients' management. This review discusses some of the recent findings and developments underlying the conceptual changes being translated from 'treating the disease' to 'treating the patient' with MS (PwMS).

RECENT FINDINGS

Applying advanced technologies combined with cross-disciplinary efforts in the fields of neuropathology, neuroimmunology, neurobiology, and neuroimaging, together with clinical neurology provided support for the notion that MS is not a single disease but rather a spectrum. Predictive markers of disease subtypes, disease activity and response to therapy are being developed; some already applied to practice, allowing informed management. In parallel, population-specific issues, some genetic-driven, others caused by environmental (sun-exposure, life-style, etc.), gender-related (hormones) and epigenetic factors, are being elucidated. Additionally, patient empowerment-based approaches, including integration of patient-reported outcome measures (PRO) as well as tools to enhance patients' adherence to medications, are being developed, some already provided as part of emerging mobile-health technologies.

SUMMARY

Developments in the MS field, elucidating disease subtypes and interpopulation diversities, together with integration of patient-centered approaches, allow transition toward precision medicine in MS clinical trials and patient care.

Which Environmental Factor Is Correlated with Long-Term Multiple Sclerosis Incidence Trends: Ultraviolet B Radiation or Geomagnetic Disturbances?

Background

Insufficient received ultraviolet B radiation (UV) is regarded as the main environmental risk factor (RF) for MS in vitamin D deficiency hypothesis. Nevertheless, geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) has also been proposed as a potential trigger for MS in GMD hypothesis. The aim of this study was to investigate which of these mentioned RF is correlated with long-term ultradecadal MS incidence.

Methods

After a systematic search, long-term incidence reports of the United Kingdom (UK), Denmark, Tayside County, Nordland County, the Orkney, and Shetland Islands were selected for this retrospective time-series study. Possible lead-lag relationships between MS incidence, GMD, and UV were evaluated by cross-correlation analysis.

Results

Significant positive correlations between GMD and MS incidence were seen in Tayside County (at lag of 2 years: r_S = 0.38), Denmark (peak correlation at lag of 2 years: r_S = 0.53), and UK (at lag of 1 year: r_S = 0.50). We found a positive correlation between received UV and MS incidences in the Nordland at lag of 1 year (r_S = 0.49).

Conclusion

This study found significant positive correlations between alterations in GMD with alterations in long-term MS incidence in three out of six studied locations and supports the GMD hypothesis. The observed significant correlation between MS and UV is positive; hence it is not supportive for UV related vitamin D deficiency hypothesis.

[The influence of solar and geomagnetic activity on the risk of multiple sclerosis (results of correlation and regression analysis)]

AIM

Multiple sclerosis (MS) develops as a result of an interaction between genetic and environmental factors, among them solar (SA) and geomagnetic activity (GMA) attract the particular attention. An impact of SA and GMA on intrauterine and postnatal period in MS was studied.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study included 358 patients with MS. Correlation (CA) and regression analysis (RA) were used to study the effects of SA and GMA during intrauterine period, the 1st year of life, a year of disease onset, a year before the onset.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

CA revealed the association between the MS onset and mean values of kp-index in the onset year and the year before the onset year, number of days with kp≥4 and kp≥5 in the onset year and the year before the onset year, mean SFU in the onset year. RA revealed the association between the MS onset and mean kp in the year before the onset year and in the onset year, number of days with kp≥7 in the onset year and the year before the onset year, mean kp during pregnancy, number of days with kp≥7 in the 1st year of life and during pregnancy. The influence of high GMA during pregnancy and in the 1st year of life increases the MS risk in the future and the high GMA predisposes to the MS onset in adults. The practical value of the study is that predicting the GMA changes we can try to prevent the onset and relapses in the risk groups.

The possible effects of the solar and geomagnetic activity on multiple sclerosis

OBJECTIVES

Increasing observational evidence on the biological effects of Space Weather suggests that geomagnetic disturbances may be an environmental risk factor for multiple sclerosis (MS) relapses. In the present study, we aim to investigate the possible effect of geomagnetic disturbances on MS activity.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

MS patient admittance rates were correlated with the solar and geophysical data covering an eleven-year period (1996-2006, 23rd solar cycle). We also examined the relationship of patterns of the solar flares, the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the solar wind with the recorded MS admission numbers.

RESULTS

The rate of MS patient admittance due to acute relapses was found to be associated with the solar and geomagnetic events. There was a "primary" peak in MS admittance rates shortly after intense geomagnetic storms followed by a "secondary" peak 7-8 months later.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that the geomagnetic and solar activity may represent an environmental health risk factor for multiple sclerosis and we discuss the possible mechanisms underlying this association. More data from larger case series are needed to confirm these preliminary results and to explore the possible influence of Space Weather on the biological and radiological markers of the disease.

[The role of the solar and geomagnetic activity in the etiology of multiple sclerosis: a review of the literature and prospects of research]

Despite the great progress in the study of multiple sclerosis (MS), its etiology remains unknown. It is proved that MS occurs in genetically predisposed people under the influence of environmental factors. Among these factors the solar activity (SA) and geomagnetic activity (GA) attract the particular attention. This article presents the review of studies concerning the influence of SA and GA on the incidence and course of MS.

Correlation of multiple sclerosis (MS) incidence trends with solar and geomagnetic indices: Time to revise the method of reporting MS epidemiological data

BACKGROUND

Recently, we introduced solar related geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) as a potential environmental risk factor for multiple sclerosis (MS). The aim of this study was to test probable correlation between solar activities and GMD with long-term variations of MS incidence.

METHODS

After a systematic review, we studied the association betwee n alterations in the solar wind velocity (VSW) and planetary A index (AP, a GMD index) with MS incidence in Tehran and western Greece, during the 23(rd) solar cycle (1996-2008), by an ecological-correlational study.

RESULTS

We found moderate to strong correlations among MS incidence of Tehran with VSW (rS = 0.665, P = 0.013), with 1 year delay, and also with AP (rS = 0.864, P = 0.001) with 2 year delay. There were very strong correlations among MS incidence data of Greece with VSW (r = 0.906, P < 0.001) and with AP (r = 0.844, P = 0.001), both with 1 year lag.

CONCLUSION

It is the first time that a hypothesis has introduced an environmental factor that may describe MS incidence alterations; however, it should be reminded that correlation does not mean necessarily the existence of a causal relationship. Important message of these findings for researchers is to provide MS incidence reports with higher resolution for consecutive years, based on the time of disease onset and relapses, not just the time of diagnosis. Then, it would be possible to further investigate the validity of GMD hypothesis or any other probable environmental risk factors.

Is a hypothetical melanoma-like neuromelanin the underlying factor essential for the aetiopathogenesis and clinical manifestations of multiple sclerosis?

Background

Multiple sclerosis (MS) has undergone a significant increase in incidence in the industrialised nations over the last 130 years. Changing environmental factors, possibly infections or a lack of or altered timing of them, determine the prevalence of the disease. Although a plethora of aetiological factors, clearly evident in a group of children with MS, appear relevant, there may nevertheless be a single factor essential for the aetiopathogenesis and clinical manifestation of MS.

Description and discussion

This hitherto unknown factor is postulated to be a ‘melanoma-like neuromelanin’ (MLN) dependent on the activation of a gene for syncytin-1. An involvement of MLN could explain the diverse findings in the epidemiology, immunology and pathology of MS, requiring a consideration of a complex infectious background, the human leucocyte antigens, as well as cosmic radiation causing geomagnetic disturbances, vitamin D deficiency, smoking, and lower levels of uric acid.

Summary

In principle, the MLN-based concept is a unifying one, capable of explaining a number of characteristics of the disease. To date, MLN has not been addressed in studies on MS and future work will need to be done on human patients, as there is little or no neuromelanin (the precursor of MLN) in the animals used as experimental models in the study of MS.