A bootstrap approach for assessing the uncertainty of outcome probabilities when using a scoring system

Envisioning the Future of Personalized Medicine: Role and Realities of Digital Twins

Digital twins have emerged as a groundbreaking concept in personalized medicine, offering immense potential to transform health care delivery and improve patient outcomes. It is important to highlight the impact of digital twins on personalized medicine across the understanding of patient health, risk assessment, clinical trials and drug development, and patient monitoring. By mirroring individual health profiles, digital twins offer unparalleled insights into patient-specific conditions, enabling more accurate risk assessments and tailored interventions. However, their application extends beyond clinical benefits, prompting significant ethical debates over data privacy, consent, and potential biases in health care. The rapid evolution of this technology necessitates a careful balancing act between innovation and ethical responsibility. As the field of personalized medicine continues to evolve, digital twins hold tremendous promise in transforming health care delivery and revolutionizing patient care. While challenges exist, the continued development and integration of digital twins hold the potential to revolutionize personalized medicine, ushering in an era of tailored treatments and improved patient well-being. Digital twins can assist in recognizing trends and indicators that might signal the presence of diseases or forecast the likelihood of developing specific medical conditions, along with the progression of such diseases. Nevertheless, the use of human digital twins gives rise to ethical dilemmas related to informed consent, data ownership, and the potential for discrimination based on health profiles. There is a critical need for robust guidelines and regulations to navigate these challenges, ensuring that the pursuit of advanced health care solutions does not compromise patient rights and well-being. This viewpoint aims to ignite a comprehensive dialogue on the responsible integration of digital twins in medicine, advocating for a future where technology serves as a cornerstone for personalized, ethical, and effective patient care.

Validation of the Appearance-Related Social Media Consciousness Scale with Chinese adolescents and young adults

Research has revealed a negative association between appearance-related social media consciousness (ASMC) and mental health, but the impact of this association in the Chinese population remains understudied. This study examined the psychometric properties of the ASMC scale among Chinese adolescents and young adults and to further investigate the scale's measurement invariance and differences in ASMC across gender and age groups. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were conducted to examine the ASMC scale's factorial structure among Chinese adolescents and young adults, including 1109 adolescents (50.0% boys) aged 12-18 (mean, 14.89) years and 457 young adults (42.5% men) aged 18-25 (mean, 20.75) years. The measurement invariance across gender and age groups, internal consistency and convergent validity were examined. ASMC scale was found to have a unidimensional structure and to be invariant across gender and age groups. It exhibited excellent internal consistency and strong construct validity. Moderate gender differences and pronounced age differences in ASMC scale scores were observed. Our findings support the validity of the ASMC scale as an effective instrument for the measurement of appearance-related social media consciousness experience among Chinese young adults and adolescents. Further study is required to evaluate the status of ASMC as a risk factor for disordered eating and target for preventive interventions within Chinese samples.

Validation of a prognostic model for adverse perinatal health outcomes

There is a strong association between social deprivation and adverse perinatal health outcomes, but related risk factors receive little attention in current antenatal risk selection. To increase awareness of healthcare professionals for these risk factors, a model for antenatal risk surveillance and care was developed in The Netherlands, called the ‘Rotterdam Reproductive Risk Reduction’ (R4U) scorecard. The aim of this study was to validate the R4U-scorecard. This study was conducted using external, prospective data from thirty-two midwifery practices, and fifteen hospitals in The Netherlands. The main outcome measures were the discrimination of the prognostic models for the probability of a pregnant woman developing adverse pregnancy outcomes (babies born preterm or small for gestational age), and calibration. We performed cross-validation and updated the model using statistical re-estimation of all predictors. 1752 participants were included, of whom 282 (16%) had one of the predefined adverse outcomes. The discriminative value of the original scoring system was poor [area under the curve (AUC) of 0.58 (95% CI 0.53–0.64)]. The model showed moderate calibration. The updated R4U-scorecard showed good generalisability to the validation set but did not alter the predictive value [AUC 0.61 (95% CI 0.56–0.66)]. By using external data and by updating the prognostic model, we have provided a comprehensive evaluation of the R4U-scorecard. Further improvement in classification of high-risk pregnancies is important considering the necessity of early risk detection for healthcare professionals to take appropriate actions to prevent these risks from becoming manifest problems.

Duplex ultrasound in the early diagnosis of acute mesenteric ischemia: a longitudinal cohort multicentric study

OBJECTIVE

Acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) is a life-threatening condition requiring time-dependent treatment; thus, early recognition may improve outcomes. We hypothesized that clinician-performed mesenteric vessels duplex ultrasound (DUS) could facilitate early identification of patients with AMI in high-risk patients presenting with abdominal pain.

METHODS

This was a single-operator, observational, prospective cohort study. Patients aged at least 65 presenting to Emergency Departments with acute abdominal pain and no clear diagnosis after an initial work-up were enrolled. All patients underwent multidetector computed tomography and these findings provided the reference standard in this study. DUS of the celiac artery and superior mesenteric artery (SMA) were obtained to measure the peak systolic velocity (PSV) and were performed within 24 h of admission. PSVs outside the normal range were considered to indicate AMI.

RESULTS

Of 49 patients identified, 47 were consented to enrollment and diagnostic images were obtained in 45 (96%). Fifteen patients (33%) had AMI (six occlusive, nine nonocclusive disease). Among these, 12 (80%) had abnormal DUS velocities. SMA PSV showed a sensitivity of 78.57% [95% confidence interval (CI): 49.2-95.34], a specificity of 64.52% (95% CI: 45.37-80.77), a positive predictive value of 50% (95% CI: 28.22-71.78), and a negative predictive value of 86.96% (95% CI: 66.41-97.22) for AMI. DUS had a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 64%, and a negative predictive value of 100% for occlusive AMI. Assessment of celiac artery PSV did not improve diagnostic performance.

CONCLUSION

In this single-operator pilot study, mesenteric vessel DUS was performed successfully in the Emergency Department, with a high proportion of diagnostic images obtained. A normal SMA PSV was associated with a low risk of occlusive AMI.

Which method is best for an early accurate diagnosis of acute heart failure? Comparison between lung ultrasound, chest X-ray and NT pro-BNP performance: a prospective study

Acute heart failure is a common condition among adults presenting with dyspnea in the Emergency Department (ED), still the diagnosis is challenging as objective standardized criteria are lacking. First line work-up, other then clinical findings, is nowadays made with lung ultrasound imaging study, chest X-ray study and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) level determination; however, it is not clear which is the best diagnostic test to be used and whether there is any real benefit for clinical judgement. We set up this study to compare the performances of these three diagnostic tools; furthermore, we combined them to find the best possible approach to dyspneic patients. This is a prospective observational study based in the ED. We enrolled adults presenting with dyspnea not trauma-related, they underwent lung ultrasound, and chest X-ray studies, and NT pro-BNP level determination. Then we compared the results with the diagnosis of acute heart failure established by an independent panel of experts. 236 patients were enrolled in the study. We find sensitivity and specificity for lung ultrasound of 57.73 and 87.97 %, for chest X-ray 74.49 and 86.26 %, for NT pro-BNP 97.59 and 27.56 %, respectively. Combining together the chest X-ray and lung ultrasound, we find the best overall performance with 84.69 % sensitivity, 77.69 % specificity and 87.07 % negative predictive value. From our results, we could not identify the "best test" to diagnose acute heart failure in an emergency setting, although we could suggest that a stepwise workup combining chest X-ray and lung ultrasound at first, then for those negative, a determination of NT pro-BNP assay would be a reasonable approach to the dyspneic patient.

A risk scoring system for the differentiation between melanoma with regression and regressing nevi

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous regression of melanomas is relatively common, its prevalence ranging from 10 to 35%. However, regressing nevi can exhibit worrisome feature and simulate melanoma both clinically and dermoscopically. Thus, the presence of regression can represent a confounding factor.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the frequency of dermoscopic patterns of "regression" in a series of benign and malignant melanocytic skin lesions, and to design an integrated scoring system. Scoring classifiers are very effective in selecting the significant parameters for discriminating two clinical conditions, thus can rapidly calculate a patient's risk for a given disease.

METHODS

We selected a series of 95 regressing melanocytic lesions, including 50 regressing nevi and 45 melanomas with regression. For each lesion, 12 dermoscopic variables (i.e. five types of regression structures, five atypical pigmentation structures, atypical vascular pattern and pink areas) were examined by three expert in dermoscopy (blinded to the histological diagnosis). The dermoscopic evaluation was then combined with patient age, gender, body site and the maximum diameter of lesion. Concordance analysis with Cohen's kappa was performed between the three clinicians. A risk scoring system was designed by the leave-one-out cross-validation procedure to ensure model prediction power.

RESULTS

The predictive score model revealed a sensitivity of 97.8% and a specificity of 75.5% in discriminating nevi and melanomas with regression. Using the score model, the diagnostic performance of the examiners increased by an average of 23.7% in sensitivity and 5.9% in specificity, compared with standard dermoscopic pattern analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

We assessed the validity of an integrated risk scoring model as a new methodological approach that could help the dermatologist in the differentiation between melanoma with regression and regressing nevus. Future studies could test the setting up of a score model over an even more complex pool of data obtained from different skin lesions with various diagnostic devices.

A naïve approach for deriving scoring systems to support clinical decision making

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Scoring systems are frequently proposed in medicine to summarize a set of qualitative and quantitative items by means of a numeric score. Their design often requires modelling ability and subjective judgments. This can make it difficult to adapt a scoring system to a clinical setting different from that in which the system was developed. The objective of this study was to discuss an approach to derive scoring systems, which can be easily modified and matched to any scenario.

METHODS

A naïve Bayes approach was used to develop a scoring system that is completely defined by descriptive tables obtained by frequency counts from the training set. The approach was implemented to build a locally customized scoring system for planning transfusion requirements after cardiac surgery. The performance of this system was evaluated and compared with that of a logistic regression model designed using the same predictors. The working sample was a set of 3182 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery at the University Hospital of Siena, Italy.

RESULTS

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was equal to 0.811 and 0.824 for the scoring system and for the logistic regression model, respectively. This result proves that this global index of discrimination capacity was virtually identical and very good for both models. The values of sensitivity, specificity and overall correct-classification percentage obtained by the leave-one-out method were practically the same for the two models (73.9% versus 75.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

An easy-fitting and trustworthy scoring system can be directly developed using a naïve Bayes approach. The simplicity of its design allows the system to be customized to any specific institution and updated regularly. This aspect has important practical implications because it can encourage the use of scoring systems among clinicians, enabling their performance to be properly assessed in a wider clinical context.

A simple scoring system for the diagnosis of palmo-plantar pigmented skin lesions by digital dermoscopy analysis

BACKGROUND

Many research groups have recently developed equipments and statistical methods enabling pattern classification of pigmented skin lesions. To differentiate between benign and malignant ones, the mathematical extraction of digital patterns together with the use of appropriate statistical approaches is a challenging task.

OBJECTIVE

To design a simple scoring model that provides accurate classification of benign and malignant palmo-plantar pigmented skin lesions, by evaluation of parameters obtained by digital dermoscopy analysis (DDA).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In the present study we used a digital dermoscopy analyser to evaluate a series of 445 palmo-plantar melanocytic skin lesion images (25 melanomas 420 nevi). Area under the receiver operator curve, sensitivity and specificity were calculated to evaluate the diagnostic performance of our scoring model for the differentiation of benign and malignant palmo-plantar melanocytic lesions.

RESULTS

Model performance reached a very high value (0.983). The DDA parameters selected by the model that proved statistically significant were: area, peripheral dark regions, total imbalance of colours, entropy, dark area and red and blue multicomponent. When all seven model variables were used in a multivariate mode, setting sensitivity at 100% to avoid false negatives, we estimated a minimum specificity of about 80%.

CONCLUSIONS

Simplicity of use and effectiveness of implementation are important requirements for the success of quantitative methods in routine clinical practice. Scoring systems meet these requirements. Their outcomes are accessible in real time without the use of any data processing system, thus allowing decisions to be made quickly and effectively.

Comparative analysis of the performance of various crystalloid cardioplegic solutions on myocardial protection after prolonged cold ischemia

INTRODUCTION

The quality and effectiveness of myocardial protection are fundamental problems to expand the use of and consequently good outcomes of donated hearts for transplantation.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this investigation was to compare the cardioprotective effects of Krebs-Henseleit, Bretschneider-HTK, St Thomas, and Celsior solutions using a modified nonrecirculating Langendorff column model of isolated perfused rat heart during prolonged cold storage.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

After removal 36 rat hearts underwent isolated perfusion into a Langendorff apparatus using Krebs-Henseleit solution for a 15-minute period of recovery; we excluded organs that did not maintain an aortic pressure above 100 m Hg. Subsequently, we equally distributed the hearts into four groups according to the cardioprotection solution; group 1, Krebs-Henseleit (control); group II, Bretschneider-HTK; group III, St Thomas; and group IV, Celsior. Each heart received the specific cardioplegic solution at 10°C for 2-hour storage at 20°C, before a 15 minutes perfusion with Krebs-Henseleit solution for recovery and stabilization. After 60 additional minutes of perfusion, every 5 minutes we determined heart rate (HR), coronary flow (CF), left ventricular systolic pressure (LVSP), and positive and negative peak of the first derivative of left ventricular pressure (+dP/dt and -dP/dt, respectively).

RESULTS

Comparative analysis by Turkey's test showed the following performances among the groups at 60 minutes of reperfusion: HR: II = IV > III > I; CF: II = IV > I = III; LVSP: IV > I = II = III; +dP/dt: IV > I = II = III; and -dP/dt: IV = II > I = II.

CONCLUSION

Cardioprotective solutions generally used in clinical practice are not able to avoid hemodynamic alterations in hearts exposed to prolonged ischemia. Celsior solution showed better performance than Bretschneider-HTK, St Thomas, and Krebs-Henseleit.