Ambulatory ECG-based T-wave alternans and heart rate turbulence can predict cardiac mortality in patients with myocardial infarction with or without diabetes mellitus

HRT assessment reviewed: a systematic review of heart rate turbulence methodology

Heart rate turbulence (HRT) is a biphasic reaction to a ventricular premature contraction (VPC) mainly mediated by the baroreflex. It can be used for risk stratification in different disease patterns. Despite existing standards there is a lot of variation in terms of measuring and calculating HRT, which complicates research and application.

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review outlines and evaluates the methodological spectrum of HRT research, especially filtering criteria, parameter calculation and thresholds.

APPROACH

The analysis includes all research papers written in English that have been published before 12.10.2018, are listed on PubMed and involve calculation of HRT parameter values.

MAIN RESULTS

HRT assessment is still being performed in various ways and important specifications of the methodology are not given in many articles. Nevertheless, some suggestions regarding HRT methodology can be made: a normalised turbulence slope should be used to uncouple the parameter from heart rate and frequency of extrasystoles. Filtering criteria as formerly reviewed in the guidelines should be met and mentioned. The minimal number of VPC snippets (VPCSs) as well as new cut-off values for different risks need to be further evaluated. Most importantly, the exact and complete methodology must be described to ensure reproducibility and comparability.

SIGNIFICANCE

Methodical variation hinders comparability of research and medical application. Our continuing questions help to further standardise the measurement and calculation of HRT and increase its value for medical risk stratification.

Prediction models for the risk of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a serious public health issue worldwide, and DM patients have higher risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), which is the leading cause of DM-related deaths. China has the largest DM population, yet a robust model to predict CVDs in Chinese DM patients is still lacking. This systematic review is carried out to summarize existing models and identify potentially important predictors for CVDs in Chinese DM patients.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review.

METHODS

Medline and Embase were searched for data from April 1st, 2011 to May 31st, 2018. A study was eligible if it developed CVD (defined as total CVD or any major cardiovascular component) risk prediction models or explored potential predictors of CVD specifically for Chinese people with type 2 DM. Standardized forms were utilized to extract information, appraise applicability, risk of bias, and availabilities.

RESULTS

Five models and 29 studies focusing on potential predictors were identified. Models for a primary care setting, or to predict total CVD, are rare. A number of common predictors (e.g. age, sex, diabetes duration, smoking status, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), blood pressure, lipid profile, and treatment modalities) were observed in existing models, in which urine albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are highly recommended for the Chinese population. Variability of blood pressure (BP) and HbA1c should be included in prediction model development as novel factors. Meanwhile, interactions between age, sex, and risk factors should also be considered.

CONCLUSIONS

A 10-year prediction model for CVD risk in Chinese type 2 DM patients is lacking and urgently needed. There is insufficient evidence to support the inclusion of other novel predictors in CVDs risk prediction functions for routine clinical use.

ECG Parameters for Malignant Ventricular Arrhythmias: A Comprehensive Review

Many studies showed electrocardiogram (ECG) parameters are useful for predicting fatal ventricular arrhythmias (VAs). However, the studies have several shortcomings. Firstly, all studies lack of effective way to present behavior of various ECG parameters prior to the occurrence of the VAs. Secondly, they also lack of discussion on how to consider the parameters as abnormal. Thirdly, the reports do not include approaches to increase the detection accuracy for the abnormal patterns. The purpose of this study is to address the aforementioned issues. It identifies ten ECG parameters from various sources and then presents a review based on the identified parameters. From the review, it has been found that the increased risk of VAs can be represented by presence and certain abnormal range of the parameters. The variation of parameters range could be influenced by either gender or age. This study also has discovered the facts that averaging, outliers elimination and morphology detection algorithms can contribute to the detection accuracy.

Heart Rate Turbulence Is a Powerful Predictor of Cardiac Death and Ventricular Arrhythmias in Postmyocardial Infarction and Heart Failure Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Heart rate turbulence (HRT) has been proposed as a candidate marker of altered autonomic tone, and some studies showed its prognostic value for both cardiac death (CD) and sudden death. Nevertheless, HRT is not currently used in the clinical practice.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the predictive value of HRT for the end points of total mortality, CD, and fatal and nonfatal ventricular arrhythmias in postacute myocardial infarction and heart failure patients. MEDLINE and The Cochrane Library databases were systematically searched to identify studies, which analyzed the predictive value of abnormal HRT for the defined end points. Twenty studies (25 cohorts: 12 832 patients) were identified by the systematic review, and 15 studies (20 cohorts: 11 499 patients) were included in the meta-analyses. Abnormal HRT was a predictive marker for all the end points in heart failure patients and more markedly in postacute myocardial infarction patients, where 9 out of the 10 cohorts had an ejection fraction >30%. In postacute myocardial infarction patients, HRT had pooled risk ratios of 3.53 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.54-4.90), 4.82 (95% CI, 3.12-7.45), and 4.48 (95% CI, 3.04-6.60), and positive likelihood ratios of 3.5 (95% CI, 2.6-4.8), 4.1 (95% CI, 3.0-5.7), and 2.7 (95% CI, 2.2-3.3) for total mortality, CD, and arrhythmic events, respectively. The combination of abnormal HRT and T-wave alternans (5 cohorts: 1516 patients) increased the predictive power for CD and arrhythmic events.

CONCLUSIONS

HRT is a powerful predictor of both CD and arrhythmic events, particularly in postacute myocardial infarction patients with ejection fraction >30%. HRT power increases in combination with T-wave alternans analysis.

Changes of Virtual Planar QRS and T Vectors Derived from Holter in the Populations with and without Diabetes Mellitus

Aims

Research related to type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and parameters of electrocardiography (ECG) was limited. Patients with and without DM (NDM) were randomly enrolled in a study to exploit the influence of DM on planar QRS and T vectors derived from the Virtual Holter process.

Methods

A total of 216 (NDM) and 127 DM patients were consecutively and randomly recruited. We selected a 1‐minute length of ECG, which was scheduled for analysis at 4 AM. After a series of calculating algorisms, we received the virtual planar vector parameters.

Results

Patients with DM were elderly (65.61 ± 12.08 vs 59.41 ± 16.86 years, P < 0.001); higher morbidity of hypertension (76.38% vs 58.14%, P < 0.001) and coronary artery disease (44.09% vs 32.41%, P = 0.03); thicker interventricular septum (10.92 ± 1.77 vs 10.08 ± 1.96 mm, P < 0.001) and left ventricular posterior wall (9.84 ± 1.38 vs 9.39 ± 1.66 mm, P = 0.03); higher lipid levels and average heart rate (66.67 ± 12.04 vs 61.87 ± 13.36 bpm, P < 0.01); higher angle of horizontal QRS vector (HQRSA, –2.87 ± 48.48 vs –19.00 ± 40.18 degrees, P < 0.01); lower maximal magnitude of horizontal T vector (HTV, 2.33 ± 1.47 vs 2.88 ± 1.89 mm, P = 0.01) and maximal magnitude of right side T vector (2.77 ± 1.55 vs 3.27 ± 1.92 mm, P = 0.03), and no difference in angle of frontal QRS‐T vector (FQRSTA, 32.77 ± 54.20 vs 28.39 ± 52.87 degrees, P = 0.74) compared with patients having NDM. After adjusting for confounding factors, DM was significantly effective on FQRSTA (regression coefficient –40.0, 95%CI –66.4 to –13.6, P < 0.01), HQRSA (regression coefficient 22.6, 95%CI 2.5 to 42.8, P = 0.03), and HTV (regression coefficient 0.9, 95%CI 0.2 to 1.7, P = 0.01). Confounding factors included: sex, 2‐hour postprandial blood glucose, smoking, triglyceride, apolipoprotein A, creatinine, left ventricular ejection fraction, and average heart rate.

Conclusions

The risk factors of DM and lipid metabolism abnormality particularly apolipoprotein A significantly modified parameters of virtual planar QRS and T vector, including frontal QRS‐T angle.

Improved robust T-wave alternans detectors

New statistical and spectral detectors, the modified matched pairs t test, the extended spectral method and the modified spectral method, were proposed for T-wave alternans (TWA) detection gaining robustness according to trend and single-frequency interferences. They were compared to classic detectors such as matched pairs t test, unpaired t test, spectral method, generalized likelihood ratio test and estimated TWA amplitude within a simulation framework and applied to real data. The optimal detection threshold was selected by using a full Monte-Carlo simulation where signals, with and without alternans episodes, were corrupted by Gaussian noise with different power and single-frequency interferences with different tones. All the combinations of noise and frequency were selected and repeated 500 times in order to compute probability of detection ([Formula: see text]) and the false alarm probability ([Formula: see text]), providing ROC curves. The study group consisted of 50 patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (age: [Formula: see text]; LVEF: [Formula: see text]), who were paced (ventricular pacing) at 100 bpm. Two-minute recordings were analyzed. The XYZ orthogonal lead system was used. The best performance was reached by using the modified matched pairs t test (in comparison with the spectral method and other reference methods).

Ability of ambulatory ECG-based T-wave alternans to modify risk assessment of cardiac events: a systematic review

Background

Exercise-based spectral T-wave alternans (TWA) has been proposed as a noninvasive tool-identifying patients at risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) and cardiac mortality. Prior studies have indicated that ambulatory electrocardiogram (AECG)-based TWA is an important alternative platform to exercise for risk stratification of cardiac events. This study sought to review data regarding 24-hour AECG-based TWA and to discuss its potential role in risk stratification of fatal cardiac events across a series of patient risk profiles.

Methods

Prospective clinical studies of the predictive value of AECG-based TWA obtained with daily activity published between January 1990 and November 2014 were retrieved. Major endpoints included composite endpoint of SCD, cardiac mortality, and severe arrhythmic events.

Results

Data were accumulated from 5 studies involving a total of 1,588 patients, including 317 positive and 1,271 negative TWA results. Compared with the negative group, positive group showed increased rates of SCD (hazard ratio [HR]: 7.49, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.65 to 21.15), cardiac mortality (HR: 4.75, 95% CI: 0.42 to 53.55), and composite endpoint (SCD, cardiac mortality, and severe arrhythmic events, HR: 5.94, 95% CI: 1.80 to 19.63). For the 4 studies evaluating TWA measured using the modified moving average method, the HR associated with a positive versus negative TWA result was 9.51 (95% CI: 4.99 to 18.11) for the composite endpoint.

Conclusions

The positive group of AECG-based TWA has a nearly six-fold risk of severe outcomes compared with the negative group. Therefore, AECG-based TWA provides an accurate means of predicting fatal cardiac events.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2261-14-198) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Quantitative T-wave alternans analysis for guiding medical therapy: an underexploited opportunity

Reducing the toll of sudden cardiac death (SCD) remains a major challenge in cardiology, as it is the leading cause of adult mortality in the industrially developed world, claiming 310,000 lives annually in the United States alone. The main contemporary noninvasive index of cardiovascular risk, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), has not proved adequately reliable, as the majority of individuals who die suddenly have relatively preserved cardiac mechanical function. Monitoring of T-wave alternans (TWA), a beat-to-beat fluctuation in ST-segment or T-wave morphology, is an attractive approach to risk stratification on both scientific and clinical grounds, as this ECG phenomenon has been shown using the FDA-cleared Spectral and Modified Moving Average methods to assess risk for cardiovascular mortality including SCD in studies enrolling >12,000 individuals with depressed or preserved LVEF. The evidence supporting TWA as a therapeutic target is reviewed.

Effects of exercise rehabilitation on cardiac electrical instability assessed by T-wave alternans during ambulatory electrocardiogram monitoring in coronary artery disease patients without and with diabetes mellitus

Effects of exercise rehabilitation on electrocardiographic markers of risk for sudden cardiac death have not been adequately studied. We examined effects of controlled exercise training on T-wave alternans (TWA) in 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiogram recordings in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) without and with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Consecutive patients with angiographically confirmed CAD were recruited to join the ARTEMIS (Innovation to Reduce Cardiovascular Complications of Diabetes at the Intersection) study. Exercise (n = 65) and control groups (n = 65) were matched on age, sex, DM, and previous myocardial infarction. Ambulatory electrocardiograms were recorded before and after a 2-year training period. TWA was assessed using time domain-modified moving average method by an investigator blinded to patients' clinical status. Average TWA values decreased in the rehabilitation group but not in control patients (rehabilitation [mean ± SEM]: 52.8 ± 1.7 μV vs 48.7 ± 1.5 μV, p <0.001; control: 53.7 ± 1.7 μV vs 54.3 ± 1.6 μV, p = 0.746). Changes in TWA differed between the groups (rehabilitation: -4.1 ± 1.2 μV vs controls: +0.6 ± 1.1 μV, p = 0.005). In CAD + DM patients, 50% (n = 9) of the 18 positive TWA cases were converted with exercise versus 10% (n = 2 of 20) of controls (p = 0.020). In CAD patients, 30% (n = 8 of 27) of positive TWA cases were converted with exercise versus 4% (n = 1 of 28) of controls (p = 0.012). In conclusion, this is the first report of the effectiveness of exercise rehabilitation to reduce TWA, a marker of sudden cardiac death risk, in patients with stable CAD.

Sudden cardiac death and diabetes mellitus

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) affects a significant percentage of diabetic patients. SCD in these patients can be due to several factors, such as diastolic dysfunction, heart failure, altered platelet function, inflammation, sympathetic nervous stimulation and other factors. In the present review, we discuss the association between diabetes mellitus and SCD.

Relation of T-wave alternans to mortality and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome from the MERLIN-TIMI 36 trial of ranolazine versus placebo

We explored the utility of T-wave alternans (TWA) in predicting mortality in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTEACS). Maximum TWA was calculated using Modified Moving Average method from continuous electrocardiographic recordings in patients with left ventricular ejection fraction <40% and ventricular tachycardia (VT) ≥4 beats during index hospitalization or sudden cardiac death during the follow-up year and age- and sex-matched controls in the Metabolic Efficiency with Ranolazine for Less Ischemia in Non-ST Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome-Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (MERLIN-TIMI) 36 trial. All patients received standard therapy for NSTEACS plus ranolazine (n = 109) or placebo (n = 101). Median follow-up was 1 year. Baseline clinical characteristics did not differ between patients with elevated TWA (≥47 μV) compared with lower levels. Patients with TWA ≥47 μV at admission had increased risk of total mortality (adjusted odds ratio [ORadj] 2.35, p = 0.04) during follow-up and VT ≥4 beats (ORadj 2.70, p = 0.01) during hospitalization with a trend toward increased cardiovascular death risk (ORadj 2.18, p = 0.07) during follow-up. In patients receiving placebo, TWA ≥47 μV on day 6 was associated with increased risk of total mortality (OR 4.12, 95% confidence interval 1.25 to 13.64, p = 0.02) and cardiovascular death (OR 4.73, p = 0.01) during follow-up. No deaths occurred among patients with TWA ≥47 μV assigned to ranolazine. In conclusion, in patients with NSTEACS and left ventricular ejection fraction <40%, TWA ≥47 μV early after admission is associated with increased risk of mortality at 1 year and with nonsustained VT during hospitalization. TWA may be useful in risk estimation in patients with NSTEACS. The possibility that TWA may serve as a therapeutic target deserves further exploration.