Geographic and topographic determinants of local FMD transmission applied to the 2001 UK FMD epidemic

Assessing complexity and dynamics in epidemics: geographical barriers and facilitators of foot-and-mouth disease dissemination

Introduction

Physical and non-physical processes that occur in nature may influence biological processes, such as dissemination of infectious diseases. However, such processes may be hard to detect when they are complex systems. Because complexity is a dynamic and non-linear interaction among numerous elements and structural levels in which specific effects are not necessarily linked to any one specific element, cause-effect connections are rarely or poorly observed.

Methods

To test this hypothesis, the complex and dynamic properties of geo-biological data were explored with high-resolution epidemiological data collected in the 2001 Uruguayan foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epizootic that mainly affected cattle. County-level data on cases, farm density, road density, river density, and the ratio of road (or river) length/county perimeter were analyzed with an open-ended procedure that identified geographical clustering in the first 11 epidemic weeks. Two questions were asked: (i) do geo-referenced epidemiologic data display complex properties? and (ii) can such properties facilitate or prevent disease dissemination?

Results

Emergent patterns were detected when complex data structures were analyzed, which were not observed when variables were assessed individually. Complex properties-including data circularity-were demonstrated. The emergent patterns helped identify 11 counties as 'disseminators' or 'facilitators' (F) and 264 counties as 'barriers' (B) of epidemic spread. In the early epidemic phase, F and B counties differed in terms of road density and FMD case density. Focusing on non-biological, geographical data, a second analysis indicated that complex relationships may identify B-like counties even before epidemics occur.

Discussion

Geographical barriers and/or promoters of disease dispersal may precede the introduction of emerging pathogens. If corroborated, the analysis of geo-referenced complexity may support anticipatory epidemiological policies.

Review of epidemiological risk models for foot-and-mouth disease: Implications for prevention strategies with a focus on Africa

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious transboundary disease that affects domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animal species. The aim of this review was to identify and critically assess some modelling techniques for FMD that are well supported by scientific evidence from the literature with a focus on their use in African countries where the disease remains enzootic. In particular, this study attempted to provide a synopsis of the relative strengths and weaknesses of these models and their relevance to FMD prevention policies. A literature search was conducted to identify quantitative and qualitative risk assessments for FMD, including studies that describe FMD risk factor modelling and spatiotemporal analysis. A description of retrieved papers and a critical assessment of the modelling methods, main findings and their limitations were performed. Different types of models have been used depending on the purpose of the study and the nature of available data. The most frequently identified factors associated with the risk of FMD occurrence were the movement (especially uncontrolled animal movement) and the mixing of animals around water and grazing points. Based on the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment studies, the critical pathway analysis showed that the overall risk of FMDV entering a given country is low. However, in some cases, this risk can be elevated, especially when illegal importation of meat and the movement of terrestrial livestock are involved. Depending on the approach used, these studies highlight shortcomings associated with the application of models and the lack of reliable data from endemic settings. Therefore, the development and application of specific models for use in FMD endemic countries including Africa is encouraged.

Heterogeneity in the spread and control of infectious disease: consequences for the elimination of canine rabies

Understanding the factors influencing vaccination campaign effectiveness is vital in designing efficient disease elimination programmes. We investigated the importance of spatial heterogeneity in vaccination coverage and human-mediated dog movements for the elimination of endemic canine rabies by mass dog vaccination in Region VI of the Philippines (Western Visayas). Household survey data was used to parameterise a spatially-explicit rabies transmission model with realistic dog movement and vaccination coverage scenarios, assuming a basic reproduction number for rabies drawn from the literature. This showed that heterogeneous vaccination reduces elimination prospects relative to homogeneous vaccination at the same overall level. Had the three vaccination campaigns completed in Region VI in 2010–2012 been homogeneous, they would have eliminated rabies with high probability. However, given the observed heterogeneity, three further campaigns may be required to achieve elimination with probability 0.95. We recommend that heterogeneity be reduced in future campaigns through targeted efforts in low coverage areas, even at the expense of reduced coverage in previously high coverage areas. Reported human-mediated dog movements did not reduce elimination probability, so expending limited resources on restricting dog movements is unnecessary in this endemic setting. Enhanced surveillance will be necessary post-elimination, however, given the reintroduction risk from long-distance dog movements.

The performance of approximations of farm contiguity compared to contiguity defined using detailed geographical information in two sample areas in Scotland: implications for foot-and-mouth disease modelling

BACKGROUND

When modelling infectious diseases, accurately capturing the pattern of dissemination through space is key to providing optimal recommendations for control. Mathematical models of disease spread in livestock, such as for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), have done this by incorporating a transmission kernel which describes the decay in transmission rate with increasing Euclidean distance from an infected premises (IP). However, this assumes a homogenous landscape, and is based on the distance between point locations of farms. Indeed, underlying the spatial pattern of spread are the contact networks involved in transmission. Accordingly, area-weighted tessellation around farm point locations has been used to approximate field-contiguity and simulate the effect of contiguous premises (CP) culling for FMD. Here, geographic data were used to determine contiguity based on distance between premises' fields and presence of landscape features for two sample areas in Scotland. Sensitivity, positive predictive value, and the True Skill Statistic (TSS) were calculated to determine how point distance measures and area-weighted tessellation compared to the 'gold standard' of the map-based measures in identifying CPs. In addition, the mean degree and density of the different contact networks were calculated.

RESULTS

Utilising point distances <1 km and <5 km as a measure for contiguity resulted in poor discrimination between map-based CPs/non-CPs (TSS 0.279-0.344 and 0.385-0.400, respectively). Point distance <1 km missed a high proportion of map-based CPs; <5 km point distance picked up a high proportion of map-based non-CPs as CPs. Area-weighted tessellation performed best, with reasonable discrimination between map-based CPs/non-CPs (TSS 0.617-0.737) and comparable mean degree and density. Landscape features altered network properties considerably when taken into account.

CONCLUSION

The farming landscape is not homogeneous. Basing contiguity on geographic locations of field boundaries and including landscape features known to affect transmission into FMD models are likely to improve individual farm-level accuracy of spatial predictions in the event of future outbreaks. If a substantial proportion of FMD transmission events are by contiguous spread, and CPs should be assigned an elevated relative transmission rate, the shape of the kernel could be significantly altered since ability to discriminate between map-based CPs and non-CPs is different over different Euclidean distances.

Risk factors for the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2010 outbreak in Japan: a case-control study

Background

In 2010, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred for the first time in a decade in Japan. Movement or shipment of people and animals around infected farms was restricted; however these contingency measures proved insufficient to prevent FMD spread. Consequently, a total of 292 farms were confirmed as infected during this outbreak. We conducted a case–control study to identify the risk factors associated with FMD transmission between farms during these restrictions. As there was discordance in the control measures taken, risk factors were examined separately for two areas. Analyses were also performed separately for cattle and pig farms given their different infectivity and susceptibility.

Results

For cattle farms in the movement restriction area, the odds of having the factor ‘farm equipment was shared with other farms’ was significantly higher for case farms than for control farms. For cattle farms in the shipment restriction area, the odds of having the factors ‘feed transport vehicles visited the farm’ and ‘staff of livestock-related companies visited the farm’ were significantly higher on case farms than control farms. In pig farms in the movement restriction area, the odds of having factor ‘farm staff commuted from outside’ was 20 times higher for case farms than control farms. In addition, case farms were less likely to have the factors ‘fattening farm’ and ‘barn has physical barriers’ compared with control farms.

Conclusions

In the movement restriction area, the disease was likely to spread regardless of the movement of people and vehicles, and physical barriers were found to be a protective factor. Therefore, physical barriers from the surrounding environments seemed to prevent farms from being infected. Conversely, in the shipment restriction area, movement of people and vehicles was strongly associated with disease spread. These results allow a better understanding of the risk factors associated with FMD transmission and are useful to enhance future preventive measures against transmission during FMD outbreaks.

Epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis for foot-and-mouth disease control strategies: a comprehensive review

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most serious transboundary, contagious viral diseases of cloven-hoofed livestock, because it can spread rapidly with high morbidity rates when introduced into disease-free herds or areas. Epidemiological simulation modeling can be developed to study the hypothetical spread of FMD and to evaluate potential disease control strategies that can be implemented to decrease the impact of an outbreak or to eradicate the virus from an area. Spatial analysis, a study of the distributions of events in space, can be applied to an area to investigate the spread of animal disease. Hypothetical FMD outbreaks can be spatially analyzed to evaluate the effect of the event under different control strategies. The main objective of this paper is to review FMD-related articles on FMD epidemiology, epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis with the focus on disease control. This review will contribute to the development of models used to simulate FMD outbreaks under various control strategies, and to the application of spatial analysis to assess the outcome of FMD spread and its control.

Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control

In this paper, we simulate outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, USA - after the introduction of a state-wide movement ban - as they might unfold in the presence of mitigation strategies. We have adapted a model previously used to investigate FMD control policies in the UK to examine the potential for disease spread given an infection seeded in each county in Pennsylvania. The results are highly dependent upon the county of introduction and the spatial scale of transmission. Should the transmission kernel be identical to that for the UK, the epidemic impact is limited to fewer than 20 premises, regardless of the county of introduction. However, for wider kernels where infection can spread further, outbreaks seeded in or near the county with highest density of premises and animals result in large epidemics (>150 premises). Ring culling and vaccination reduce epidemic size, with the optimal radius of the rings being dependent upon the county of introduction. Should the kernel width exceed a given county-dependent threshold, ring culling is unable to control the epidemic. We find that a vaccinate-to-live policy is generally preferred to ring culling (in terms of reducing the overall number of premises culled), indicating that well-targeted control can dramatically reduce the risk of large scale outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease occurring in Pennsylvania.

Evaluation of risks of foot-and-mouth disease in Scotland to assist with decision making during the 2007 outbreak in the UK

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred in Surrey on August 3, 2007. A Great Britain-wide ban on livestock movements was implemented immediately. This coincided with the start of seasonal sheep movements off the hills in Scotland; the majority of these animals are sold via markets. The ban therefore posed severe economic and animal-welfare hardships if it was to last through September and beyond. The Scottish Government commissioned an analysis to assess the risk of re-opening markets given the uncertainty about whether FMD had entered Scotland. Tracing of livestock moved from within the risk zone in England between July 16 and August 3 identified contact chains to 12 Scottish premises; veterinary field inspections found a further three unrecorded movements. No signs of infection were found on these holdings. Under the conservative assumption that a single unknown Scottish holding was infected with FMD, an estimate of the time-dependent probability of Scotland being FMD free given no detection was made. Analyses indicated that if FMD was not detected by early to mid-September then it was highly probable that Scotland was FMD free. Risk maps were produced to visualise the potential spread of FMD across Scotland if it was to spread either locally or via market sales.

Using the systematic review methodology to evaluate factors that influence the persistence of influenza virus in environmental matrices

Understanding factors that influence persistence of influenza virus in an environment without host animals is critical to appropriate decision-making for issues such as quarantine downtimes, setback distances, and eradication programs in livestock production systems. This systematic review identifies literature describing persistence of influenza virus in environmental samples, i.e., air, water, soil, feces, and fomites. An electronic search of PubMed, CAB, AGRICOLA, Biosis, and Compendex was performed, and citation relevance was determined according to the aim of the review. Quality assessment of relevant studies was performed using criteria from experts in virology, disease ecology, and environmental science. A total of 9,760 abstracts were evaluated, and 40 appeared to report the persistence of influenza virus in environmental samples. Evaluation of full texts revealed that 19 of the 40 studies were suitable for review, as they described virus concentration measured at multiple sampling times, with viruses detectable at least twice. Seven studies reported persistence in air (six published before 1970), seven in water (five published after 1990), two in feces, and three on surfaces. All three fomite and five air studies addressed human influenza virus, and all water and feces studies pertained to avian influenza virus. Outcome measurements were transformed to half-lives, and resultant multivariate mixed linear regression models identified influenza virus surviving longer in water than in air. Temperature was a significant predictor of persistence over all matrices. Salinity and pH were significant predictors of persistence in water conditions. An assessment of the methodological quality review of the included studies revealed significant gaps in reporting critical aspects of study design.

Statistical modeling of holding level susceptibility to infection during the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain

BACKGROUND

An understanding of the factors that determine the risk of members of a susceptible population becoming infected is essential for estimating the potential for disease spread, as opposed to just focusing on transmission from an infected population. Furthermore, analysis of the risk factors can reveal important characteristics of an epidemic and further develop understanding of the processes operating.

METHODS

This paper describes the development of a mixed effects logistic regression model of susceptibility of holdings to foot and mouth disease (FMD) during the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain following the imposition of a national ban on the movements of susceptible animals (NMB).

RESULTS

The principal risk factors identified in the model were shorter distances to the nearest infectious seed (a holding infected before the NMB) and the county of the holding (principally Cumbria). Additional risk factors included holdings that are mixed species rather than single species, the surface area of the holding, and the number of cattle within 10km (all p<0.001), but not surrounding sheep densities (p>0.1). The fit of the model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) and the Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi-squared statistic; the fit was good with both tests (area under the ROC=0.962 and Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi-squared statistic=49.98 (p>0.1)).

CONCLUSIONS

Holdings at greatest risk of infection can be identified using simple readily available risk factors; this information could be employed in the control of future FMD epidemics.