Prognosticators and risk grouping in patients with lung metastasis from nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a more accurate and appropriate assessment of prognosis

Nomogram model of survival prediction for nasopharyngeal carcinoma with lung metastasis: developed from the SEER database and validated externally

Objective

Distant metastasis occurs in some patients at the first diagnosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), the prognosis is poor, and there are significant individual differences. This study established a nomogram model of lung metastasis of NPC as a supplement to TNM staging.

Methods

The training cohort is used to build the nomogram model, and the validation cohort is used to evaluate the model. The training cohort of 177 patients is from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Factors affecting overall survival (OS) in patients with lung metastasis of NPC analysis by Cox regression analysis and then a nomogram were established. 122 patients from the Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Guangxi Medical University were selected as the external validation cohort. The concordance index (C-index), the area under the curve (AUC), and the calibration curve were used to assess the accuracy of the nomogram and used the decision curve analysis (DCA) curve to measure the clinical benefit capacity of the model. The patients were separated into two groups with different risks, and the "Kaplan-Meier (KM)" survival analysis was used to evaluate the differentiation ability of the model.

Results

Age, T-stage, radiation, chemotherapy, and brain metastases can affect the OS in NPC with lung metastasis. A nomogram was developed according to the above five factors. The C-index of the training cohort and the validation cohort were 0.726 (95% CI: 0.692-0.760) and 0.762 (95% CI: 0.733-0.791). The AUC of the nomogram was better than that of the TNM staging. In the training cohort, the nomogram predicted OS AUC values of 0.767, 0.746, and 0.750 at 1, 2, and 3 years, TNM stage of 0.574, 0.596, and 0.640. In the validation cohort, nomogram predictions of OS AUC values of 0.817, 0.857, and 0.791 for 1, 2, and 3 years, TNM stage of 0.575, 0.612, and 0.663. DCA curves suggest that nomogram have better clinical net benefits than TNM staging. The KM survival analysis shows that the nomogram has a reasonable risk stratification ability.

Conclusion

This study successfully established a nomogram model of NPC lung metastasis, which can be used as a supplement to TNM staging and provide reference for clinicians.

An Exploratory Study of Refining TNM-8 M1 Categories and Prognostic Subgroups Using Plasma EBV DNA for Previously Untreated De Novo Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

(1) Background: NPC patients with de novo distant metastasis appears to be a heterogeneous group who demonstrate a wide range of survival, as suggested by growing evidence. Nevertheless, the current 8th edition of TNM staging (TNM-8) grouping all these patients into the M1 category is not able to identify their survival differences. We sought to identify any anatomic and non-anatomic subgroups in this study. (2) Methods: Sixty-nine patients with treatment-naive de novo M1 NPC (training cohort) were prospectively recruited from 2007 to 2018. We performed univariable and multivariable analyses (UVA and MVA) to explore anatomic distant metastasis factors, which were significantly prognostic of overall survival (OS). Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) with the incorporation of significant factors from MVA was then performed to derive a new set of RPA stage groups with OS segregation (Set 1 Anatomic-RPA stage groups); another run of MVA was performed with the addition of pre-treatment plasma EBV DNA. A second-round RPA with significant prognostic factors of OS identified in this round of MVA was performed again to derive another set of stage groups (Set 2 Prognostic-RPA stage groups). Both sets were then validated externally with an independent validation cohort of 67 patients with distant relapses of their initially non-metastatic NPC (rM1) after radical treatment. The performance of models in survival segregation was evaluated by the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and concordance index (C-index) under 1000 bootstrapping samples for the validation cohort; (3) Results: The 3-year OS and median follow-up in the training cohort were 36.0% and 17.8 months, respectively. Co-existence of liver-bone metastases was the only significant prognostic factor of OS in the first round UVA and MVA. Set 1 RPA based on anatomic factors that subdivide the M1 category into two groups: M1a (absence of co-existing liver-bone metastases; median OS 28.1 months) and M1b (co-existing liver-bone metastases; median OS 19.2 months, p = 0.023). When pre-treatment plasma EBV DNA was also added, it became the only significant prognostic factor in UVA (p = 0.001) and MVA (p = 0.015), while co-existing liver-bone metastases was only significant in UVA. Set 2 RPA with the incorporation of pre-treatment plasma EBV DNA yielded good segregation (M1a: EBV DNA ≤ 2500 copies/mL and M1b: EBV DNA > 2500 copies/mL; median OS 44.2 and 19.7 months, respectively, p < 0.001). Set 2 Prognostic-RPA groups (AIC: 228.1 [95% CI: 194.8−251.8] is superior to Set 1 Anatomic-RPA groups (AIC: 278.5 [254.6−301.2]) in the OS prediction (p < 0.001). Set 2 RPA groups (C-index 0.59 [95% CI: 0.54−0.67]) also performed better prediction agreement in the validation cohort (vs. Set 1: C-index 0.47 [95% CI: 0.41−0.53]) (p < 0.001); (4) Conclusions: Our Anatomic-RPA stage groups yielded good segregation for de novo M1 NPC, and prognostication was further improved by incorporating plasma EBV DNA. These new RPA stage groups for M1 NPC can be applied to countries/regions regardless of whether reliable and sensitive plasma EBV DNA assays are available or not.

Refining TNM-8 M1 categories with anatomic subgroups for previously untreated de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma

PURPOSE

To propose a refined M1 classification in de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) based on pooled data from two academic institutions.

METHODS

Previously untreated de novo M1 NPC patients prospectively treated at The University of Hong Kong (N = 69) and Fujian Cancer Hospital (N = 114) between 2007 and 2016 were recruited and randomized in a 2:1 ratio to generate training (N = 120) and validation (N = 63) cohorts, respectively. Multivariable analysis (MVA) was performed for the training and validation cohorts to identify anatomic prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was performed which incorporated the anatomic prognostic factors identified in the MVA to derive Anatomic-RPA groups which stratified OS in the training cohort, and were then validated in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

Median follow-up for the training and validation cohorts was 27.2 and 30.2 months with 3-year OS of 51.6% and 51.1%, respectively. MVA revealed that co-existing liver-bone metastases was the only factor prognostic for OS in both the training and validation cohorts. Anatomic-RPA separated M1 disease into M1a (no co-existing liver-bone metastases) and M1b (co-existing liver-bone metastases) with median OS 39.5 and 23.7 months, respectively (p = 0.004) in the training cohort. RPA for the validation cohort also confirmed good segregation with co-existing liver-bone metastases with median OS 47.7 and 16.0 months, respectively (p = 0.008).

CONCLUSION

Our proposal to subdivide de novo M1 NPC into M1a (no co-existing liver-bone metastases) vs. M1b (co-existing liver-bone metastases) provides better OS segregation.

Serum EA-IgA and D-dimer, but not VCA-IgA, are associated with prognosis in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a meta-analysis

Background

Patients with nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) differ in prognosis, even at the same stage; therefore, new biomarkers are urgently required to identify early-stage NPC patients at high risk of poor prognosis. Although Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) DNA has been used for prognosis, the value of many other biomarkers expressed during the infection cycle of EBV remains unclarified. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic potential of EA-IgA, VCA-IgA and d-dimer in patients with NPC.

Methods

Electronic databases, including PubMed, Embase and Web of Science, were searched up to February 1, 2021. Pooled data were extracted from studies that evaluated the relationship between NPC and overall survival (OS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) or disease-free survival (DFS) and then were subjected to a meta-analysis.

Results

Nine studies with 5729 patients were included in this meta-analysis. In patients with NPC, EA-IgA levels significantly predicted OS (HR = 1.63, 95% CI 1.07–2.48). d-Dimer levels significantly predicted OS (HR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.24–2.47) and DMFS (HR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.31–2.79). However, high levels of VCA-IgA were not associated with OS (HR = 1.24, 95% CI 0.95–1.60), DMFS (HR = 1.41, 95% CI 0.92–2.17) or DFS (HR = 2.39, 95% CI 0.78–7.26).

Conclusions

The present findings reveal that EA-IgA and d-dimer, but not VCA-IgA, can be used as prognostic biomarkers in NPC.

A Prognostic Score for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma with Bone Metastasis: Development and Validation from Multicenter

Background: To establish a prognostic score based on clinical routine factors to stratify nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients with bone metastasis into risk groups with different survival rates. Materials and Methods: Total 276 patients from multicenter were retrospectively analyzed. Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression were used to confirm independent risk factors, which were checked for internal validity by bootstrapping method. The prognostic score, deriving from the corresponding regression coefficients in Cox model, classified patients into low and high risk groups. Finally, two independent cohorts were used for external validation. Results: In development cohort, six risk factors were identified: age>46 year-old (point=1), N>0 stage (point=2), anemia (point=2), bone metastasis free interval≤12 months (point=1), without radiotherapy to primary sites (point=1), and without radiotherapy to first metastasis sites (point=1). The derived prognostic score divided patients into low (score, 0-4) and high (score, 5-8) risk groups, with highly significant differences of 5-year overall survival rates (high vs. low risk: 24.6% vs. 58.2%, HR 3.47, P<0.001). Two external validations presented congruent results. Conclusion: A feasible and applicative prognostic score was successfully established and validated to discriminate bone metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma into low/high risk groups, which will be useful for individual treatment.

Correlation between overall survival and differential plasma and tissue tumor marker expression in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients with different sites of organ metastasis

Differential overall survival of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) with different organ site metastases has been documented. Here, we attempted to determine the underlying mechanisms by assessing plasma and tumor tissue markers in relation to patient survival. Pretreatment plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA concentrations, cytokines and tissue macrophages, proliferation and apoptosis markers were determined in 178 patients with metastatic NPC. The median overall survival (OS) was 19 months. Patients with single organ metastases had better outcomes than those with multiple organ metastases (median OS: 26 months vs. 16 months), with statistical significance. Among the single organ involvement cases, patients with lung metastasis only showed longer survival than those with bone or liver involvement (median OS: 50 months vs. 21 months vs. 18 months; P < 0.001). Pretreatment plasma EBV DNA concentrations were lower in patients with lung metastasis than bone or liver metastasis among single organ site groups. Plasma interferon-γ-inducible protein-10 (IP-10) and monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1) expression levels were correlated with differential single organ site metastasis OS and EBV DNA load. Liver metastatic tissue had higher density of infiltrating macrophages and proliferative index than the lung metastatic group. Low pretreatment plasma EBV DNA load, expression of cytokines, such as IP-10 and MCP-1, tissue macrophage infiltration, and proliferative index may contribute to the differences in overall survival.

Intensity-modulated radiotherapy controls nasopharyngeal carcinoma distant metastasis and improves survival of patients

BACKGROUND

This study evaluated the distant metastatic outcomes in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) plus chemotherapy.

METHODS

530 Non-metastatic NPC patients were retrospectively collected and reviewed after receiving IMRT with or without chemotherapy between June 2006 and December 2011. Patients were treated with one fraction of IMRT daily for 5 days a week for 69.96-74.09 Gy, while 473 (89.2 %) of patients also received chemotherapy.

RESULTS

Patients were followed up for a median follow-up duration of 49 months (range from 5 to 98 months). After treatment, 91 (17.3 %) patients developed distant metastasis. Distant metastasis after treatment was significantly associated with advanced 2010 Union for International Cancer Control (UICC)/American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) T staging (p = 0.034), N stage (p < 0.001), 2010 UICC/AJCC stage (p < 0.001), and tumor recurrence (p = 0.029). However, chemotherapy failed to reduce cancer distant metastasis in early stage patients, the distant metastasis rate was 17.5 % in stage III and 24.2 % in stage IVA-B diseases, after IMRT and chemotherapy. The multivariate analysis showed that cancer remission duration, treatment modality, and metastatic site (p < 0.001, p = 0.027 and p = 0.022, respectively) were all independent predictors for overall survival of NPC patients after IMRT and chemotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided insight into the effects of IMRT plus chemotherapy in the treatment of NPC. Future studies will explore the efficacy of more aggressive systemic therapies for high-risk patients with distant metastasis.

Metastasectomy for metachronous pulmonary and hepatic metastases from nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Report of 6 cases and review of the literature

BACKGROUND

Metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is commonly treated with palliative chemotherapy. The purpose of this study was to review the feasibility of metastasectomy for metachronous pulmonary and hepatic metastases from NPC.

METHODS

We present 6 patients who developed metachronous metastases from NPC (4 patients with pulmonary metastases and 2 patients with hepatic metastases) and underwent curative resection.

RESULTS

Four patients are still alive with no recurrence of NPC after metastasectomy. Two patients died with postoperative survival periods of 57 and 70 months and recurrence-free intervals of 14 and 39 months, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Metastasectomy is a feasible option for the treatment of metachronous and resectable oligometastatic NPC to the lung and liver. Application of appropriate selection criteria would be required.

A novel statistical prognostic score model that includes serum CXCL5 levels and clinical classification predicts risk of disease progression and survival of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND

Aberrant expression of C-X-C motif chemokine 5 (CXCL5) contributes to the progression of various cancers. This study analyzed the clinical significance of serum CXCL5 (sCXCL5) levels of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients, with the goal of building a novel prognostic score model.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Serum samples were collected prior to treatment from 290 NPC patients for the detection of sCXCL5 with ELISA. Half of the patients (n = 145) were randomly assigned to the training set to generate the sCXCL5 cutoff point using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis, while the other half (n = 145) were assigned to the testing set for validation. Associations between sCXCL5 levels and clinical characteristics were analyzed. A prognostic score model was built using independent predictors derived from multivariate analysis. A concordance index (C-Index) was used to evaluate prognostic ability.

RESULTS

The sCXCL5 cutoff point was 0.805 ng/ml. Sex, age, histology, T classification, clinical classification and local recurrence were not associated with sCXCL5 levels. However, sCXCL5 levels were positively associated with N classification, distant metastasis and disease progression (P<0.05). A high sCXCL5 level predicted poor 6-year overall survival (OS), poor 6-year distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and poor 6-year progression-free survival (PFS). A prognostic score model was subsequently constructed based on sCXCL5 levels and clinical classification (C-C model), which are independent predictors of OS, DMFS, and PFS, as confirmed by the multivariate analysis. Furthermore, this novel model successfully divided the patients into four risk subgroups in the training set, the testing set and the entire set of patients. The C-Indices were 0.751 and 0.762 for the training set and the testing set, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

sCXCL5 level was determined to be an independent prognostic factor for NPC patients. The novel statistical C-C model, which includes sCXCL5 levels and clinical classification, could be helpful in predicting the prognosis of NPC patients.