Proposal for a recovery prediction method for patients affected by acute mediastinitis

Evaluation of recovery in iatrogenic evoked acute mediatinitis

This study attempts to find a prediction method of death risk in patients with acute mediastinitis (AM). There is no such tool described in available literature for this serious disease. The study comprised 37 consecutive cases of iatrogenic AM. General anamnesis and biochemical data were included. Factor analysis was used to extract the risk characteristic for the patients. The most valuable results were obtained for eight parameters, which were selected for further statistical analysis (all collected during a few hours after admission). Three factors reached eigenvalue > 1. Clinical explanations for these combined statistical factors are as follows: Factor 1--proteinic status (serum total protein, albumin, and hemoglobin level), Factor 2--inflammatory status (white blood cells, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin), and Factor 3--general risk (age and number of coexisting diseases). Threshold values of prediction factors were estimated using statistical analysis (factor analysis, Statgraphics Centurion XVI). The final prediction result for the patients is constructed as simultaneous evaluation of all factor scores. High probability of death should be predicted if factor 1 value decreases with simultaneous increase of factors 2 and 3. The diagnostic power of the proposed method was revealed to be high [sensitivity = 100 %, specificity = 69.2 %]: Factor 1 [SNC = 95.8 %, SPC = 76.9 %]; Factor 2 [SNC = 100 %, SPC = 53.8 %]; and Factor 3 [SNC = 75 %, SPC = 76.9 %]. The described method may turn out to be a valuable prognostic tool for patients with AM.