Sensitivity of a point of care tick-test for the development of Lyme borreliosis

Impact of vertebrate communities on Ixodes ricinus-borne disease risk in forest areas

Background

The density of questing ticks infected with tick-borne pathogens is an important parameter that determines tick-borne disease risk. An important factor determining this density is the availability of different wildlife species as hosts for ticks and their pathogens. Here, we investigated how wildlife communities contribute to tick-borne disease risk. The density of Ixodes ricinus nymphs infected with Borrelia burgdorferi (sensu lato), Borrelia miyamotoi, Neoehrlichia mikurensis and Anaplasma phagocytophilum among 19 forest sites were correlated to the encounter probability of different vertebrate hosts, determined by encounter rates as measured by (camera) trapping and mathematical modeling.

Result

We found that the density of any tick life stage was proportional to the encounter probability of ungulates. Moreover, the density of nymphs decreased with the encounter probability of hare, rabbit and red fox. The density of nymphs infected with the transovarially-transmitted B. miyamotoi increased with the density of questing nymphs and the encounter probability of bank vole. The density of nymphs infected with all other pathogens increased with the encounter probability of competent hosts: bank vole for Borrelia afzelii and N. mikurensis, ungulates for A. phagocytophilum and blackbird for Borrelia garinii and Borrelia valaisiana. The negative relationship we found was a decrease in the density of nymphs infected with B. garinii and B. valaisiana with the encounter probability of wood mouse.

Conclusions

Only a few animal species drive the densities of infected nymphs in forested areas. There, foxes and leporids have negative effects on tick abundance, and consequently on the density of infected nymphs. The abundance of competent hosts generally drives the abundances of their tick-borne pathogen. A dilution effect was only observed for bird-associated Lyme spirochetes.

Predicting the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite, using a structural equation model

BACKGROUND

Understanding and quantification of the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite can aid development of prevention strategies against Lyme borreliosis.

METHODS

We used 3,525 single tick bite reports from three large prospective studies on the transmission risk of tick-borne pathogens to humans, with 50 reports of Lyme borreliosis during the follow-up period, among 1,973 reports with known outcome. A structural equation model was applied to estimate the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite, and quantify the influence of: developmental stage of the tick, detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in the tick by PCR, tick engorgement, patient-estimated duration of tick attachment, and patient age.

RESULTS

The overall risk of developing Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite was 2.6% (95%CI 1.4-5.1). The risk increased with: - Tick engorgement: 1.4% (95%CI 0.7%-2.3%) for low engorgement to 5.5% (95%CI 2.8%-9.2%) for substantially engorged ticks;- Rising patient-estimated tick attachment duration: 2.0% (95%CI 1.3%-2.8%) after <12 hours, to 5.2% (95%CI 3.0%-8.9%) after ≥4 days;- Detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in ticks: 6.7% (95%CI 3.6%-13.5%), versus 1.4% (95%CI 0.7%-2.9%) when ticks tested negative.The highest observed risk of Lyme borreliosis was 14.4% (95%CI 6.8%-24.6%) after one tick bite of a substantially engorged tick that tested positive for Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA, which corresponds to one new case of Lyme borreliosis per 7 (95%CI 4-15) of such tick bites.

CONCLUSIONS

An individual's risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite can be predicted with tick engorgement, patient-estimated duration of tick attachment, and detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in the tick.