Feng X, Zhu F, Qiao A, Li W, Jiang Y, Han Z, Dong L. Factors influencing spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma and the construction of a predictive model.
Open Life Sci 2024;
19:20220862. [PMID:
38681729 PMCID:
PMC11049738 DOI:
10.1515/biol-2022-0862]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2023] [Revised: 03/12/2024] [Accepted: 03/19/2024] [Indexed: 05/01/2024] Open
Abstract
This study aimed to investigate spontaneous hypothermia among emergency trauma patients and develop a predictive model. A cohort of 162 emergency trauma patients was categorized into hypothermic (n = 61) and control (n = 101) groups, with trauma severity assessed using the modified Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). Univariate analysis revealed significant differences between the groups in trauma severity, posture, garment wetness, warming measures, pre-hospital fluid resuscitation, and modified GCS scores (P < 0.05). The hypothermic group exhibited lower prothrombin time compared to the control group (P < 0.05). A logistic regression model was constructed, expressed as Y = 25.76 - 1.030X 1 + 0.725X 2 + 0.922X 3 - 0.750X 4 - 0.57X 6, and its fit was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.871, with 81.2% sensitivity and 79.5% specificity. The Youden index identified the optimal predictive cut-off at its highest (0.58). Validation results included 86.21% sensitivity, 82.93% specificity, and 84.29% accuracy. Risk factors for spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma encompassed trauma severity, posture during consultation, clothing dampness upon admission, warming measures during transfer, pre-hospital fluid resuscitation, and modified GCS scores. The risk prediction model demonstrated high accuracy, enabling effective assessment of spontaneous hypothermia risk in emergency trauma patients and facilitating preventive measures.
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