An age-period-cohort analysis of mortality rates for stomach, colorectal, liver, and lung cancer among prefectures in Japan, 1999-2018

Risk of gastric carcinoma will be low in generations born at turn of the 20th and 21st centuries in Finland. Modelling NORDCAN data of the age group specific incidence rates of gastric cancer with PLS-regression and with attention to age ('age effect') and year of the birth ('cohort effect')

BACKGROUND AND METHODS

We examined in NORDCAN database how the annual age group-specific incidence rates (IR) of gastric cancer (GCA), and correspondingly the GCA risk, have declined in Finland during the twentieth century, and whether this decline corresponds to a decrease in the cohort-specific prevalence rate of Helicobacter pylori (Hp) gastritis that is considered an important precancerous risk condition for GCA.

RESULTS

In modelling with partial least squares regression (PLSR), the logarithmically transformed IRs (ln(IR) of GCA were well explained with age and birth cohort as explanatory model variables. By considering the observed (actual) and the PLSR-modelled IRs, the IR of GCA (and the risk of GCA) has decreased gradually in Finland from 1900 onward, cohort by cohort. By prediction of the future with PLSR, the IRs of GCA will be markedly lower in all cohorts during the twenty-first century than in the twentieth century. By PLSR modelling, less than 10 GCA cases per 100,000 people are predicted to appear annually in cohorts (generations) born at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, even when these people will be 60-80 years old in the years 2060-2070.

CONCLUSIONS

The IR of GCA and GCA risk progressively declined by cohort in Finland during the whole twentieth century. This decline corresponds in extent and time window to earlier observations in the decline of the prevalence rate of Hp gastritis in the same birth cohorts and supports the hypothesis of the role of Hp gastritis as an important risk condition of GCA.

Cost of illness in a super-aged society—comparison of breast, lung, and prostate cancer in Japan

Background

Aging increases the disease burden because of an increase in disease prevalence and mortality among older individuals. This could influence the perception of the social burden of different diseases and treatment prioritization within national healthcare services. Cancer is a disease with a high disease burden in Japan; however, the age-specific frequency and age-specific mortality rates differ according to site. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between the aging of the Japanese society and the disease burden by comparing the features of three cancers with different age-specific frequency rates in Japan. Furthermore, we made projections for the future to determine how the social burden of these cancers will change.

Methods

We calculated the social burden of breast, lung, and prostate cancers by adding the direct, morbidity, and mortality costs. Estimates were made using the cost of illness (COI) method. For future projections, approximate curves were fitted for mortality rate, number of hospital admissions per population, number of outpatient visits per population, and average length of hospital stay according to sex and age.

Results

The COI of breast, lung, and prostate cancers in 2017 was 903.7, 1,547.6, and 390.8 billion yen, respectively. Although the COI of breast and prostate cancers was projected to increase, that of lung cancer COI was expected to decrease. In 2017, the average age at death was 68.8, 76.8, and 80.7 years for breast, lung, and prostate cancers, respectively.

Conclusions

Patients with breast cancer die earlier than those with other types of cancer. The COI of breast cancer (“young cancer”) was projected to increase slightly because of an increase in mortality costs, whereas that of prostate cancer (“aged cancer”) was projected to increase because of an increase in direct costs. The COI of lung cancer (“aging cancer”) was expected to decrease in 2020, despite the increase in deaths, as the impact of the decrease in human capital value outweighed that of the increase in deaths. Our findings will help prioritize future policymaking, such as cancer control research grants.

GBAP1 polymorphisms (rs140081212, rs1057941 and rs2990220) contribute to reduced risk of gastric cancer

Aim: This study was designed to evaluate the contribution of GBAP1 variants to gastric cancer (GC) risk in a Chinese Han population. Methods: The genotypes of GBAP1 polymorphisms were detected using the Agena MassARRAY platform. Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs. Results: GBAP1 rs140081212 (OR = 0.51, p = 4.50 × 10^-07), rs1057941 (OR = 0.48, p = 1.19 × 10^-08) and rs2990220 (OR = 0.46, p = 7.34 × 10^-09) contribute to reduced GC risk, especially gastric adenocarcinoma. Interestingly, the contribution of GBAP1 variants to GC susceptibility was associated with age, sex, BMI, smoking and drinking. Conclusion: This research suggested that GBAP1 polymorphisms might provide a protective effect against GC occurrence in a Chinese Han population.

Lifetime incidence risk for gastric cancer in the Helicobacter pylori-infected and uninfected population in Japan: A Monte Carlo simulation study

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection is considered the leading cause of gastric cancer. Gastric cancer is currently a common cancer with high incidence and mortality rates, but it is expected that the incidence rate will gradually decrease as the H. pylori infection prevalence decreases in the future. When evaluating the effectiveness of gastric cancer prevention strategies, it is essential to note the differences in long‐term cumulative risks between H. pylori‐infected and uninfected populations, but this has not yet been precisely evaluated. In our study, we aimed to estimate the cumulative incidence risks of developing gastric cancer from birth to 85 years among H. pylori‐infected and uninfected populations by using population‐based cancer registry data and birth year‐specific H. pylori infection prevalence rates. Death from gastric cancer and other causes of death were considered in the estimations of the adjusted cumulative incidence risks stratified by sex and H. pylori infection status. After performing 5000 Monte Carlo simulations with repeated random sampling using observed cancer incidence in selected three prefectures (Fukui, Nagasaki, Yamagata) of prefectural population‐based cancer registry in Japan, the mean adjusted cumulative incidence risk for gastric cancer in the H. pylori‐infected population was 17.0% for males and 7.7% for females and 1.0% for males and 0.5% for females in the uninfected population. These results calculated with Japanese cancer registry data may be useful in considering and evaluating future prevention strategies for gastric cancer in Japan.

What's new?

Helicobacter pylori infection is considered the leading cause of gastric cancer. This study estimated the cumulative incidence risk for gastric cancer from birth to 85 years of age, stratified by H. pylori infection status, for the first time in Japan. The cumulative risk among H. pylori‐infected individuals was 17.0% in males and 7.7% in females, after adjusting for gastric cancer incidence and other causes of death. The cumulative risk in the population without H. pylori infection was low. These results offer essential information for future cost‐effectiveness and cost‐benefit analyses and new gastric cancer prevention programs in Japan.

An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005-2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model

This paper elucidates that the AIDS/HIV incidence rate differences exist among different population and regions, especially among the old and college students. Due to the effect of age, the AIDS incidence peak in males aged 20-35 years and 50 years old both in Chongqing and Shenzhen, and the incidence rate and increasing spread in males was higher than that of females under period effect. In the local population in Chongqing and Shenzhen, the incidence rate of males in over 40, below and in the whole age groups are predicted to increase sharply in the future six years, while in females, the incidence rates among over 40-year-old and the whole age groups were predicted to increase as well. The incidence rate among homosexually transmitted patients reaches the peak in the 20-35, the incidence rate of patients transmitted through heterosexual reaches the peak around 50-year-old. Under the effect of period, AIDS/HIV incidence rate of patients transmitted through sexual routes showed an upward trend both in Chongqing and Shenzhen. The incidence rate of patients aged between 41 and 70 years old presents with an upward trend in the future six years. The results show great differences exist in the AIDS/HIV incidence between males and females, therefore it is necessary to take specific measures respectively.