A deterministic equation to predict the accuracy of multi-population genomic prediction with multiple genomic relationship matrices

Using genomic selection to improve the accuracy of genomic prediction for multi-populations in pigs

The size of the reference group is among the most critical determinants of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) accuracy. However, small- and medium-sized pig farms often need help accumulating adequate reference data, posing significant challenges to breeding programs. To solve this problem, exploring the potential benefits of combining reference groups of different sizes is necessary to improve GEBV accuracy. The primary objective of this investigation was to assess a more effective statistical model for combined multi-populations and its potential to enhance the accuracy of GEBVs for small and medium populations. Three populations were simulated using the QMSim software, each consisting of different sizes (300, 600, and 1 500, respectively). To assess the impact of heritability on the accuracy of GEBVs, four different levels of heritability (0.05, 0.15, 0.35, and 0.5) were simulated. Simultaneously, to investigate the impact of kinship on multi-populations, the study created four distinct scenarios for the three sizes of populations. These scenarios included: (1) the three groups are all independent, (2) the large group and the small group with a familial connection (n = 1 800), a middle group (n = 600) acting independently with no kinship, (3) the large group with a familial connection to the middle group (n = 2 100) but no connection to the small group (n = 300), and (4) the small group with a familial connection to the middle group (n = 900), while the large group (n = 1 500) acted independently with no kinship. This study evaluates and compares the accuracy of predicting breeding values using four different methods, including genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP), single-stepGBLUP (ssGBLUP), and two Bayesian models (Bayes A and Bayes B), with varying sizes of reference groups. In each scenario, three different prediction strategies were compared: (1) Merging all three different sizes of populations for predicting, (2) predicting each independent population separately, and (3) the other two populations predict the population. Our findings reveal that combining populations enhances the Bayesian models, with Bayes B yielding the highest accuracy. In independent populations, the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) models demonstrated the highest accuracy. However, in cases where populations were related and the heritability was high, the Bayes B model exhibited the highest overall accuracy (slightly higher than BLUP models) in the independent population. Our results underscore the importance of considering population combinations when using genetic models to predict breeding values, particularly for pig farmers with limited resources.

Genomic evaluation with multibreed and crossbred data

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We found low accuracy of genomic evaluation of crossbreds based on purebred data.

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We found higher accuracy for crossbreds based on crossbred data.

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Use of putative sequence variants had a small impact on genomic accuracy.

Several types of multibreed genomic evaluation are in use. These include evaluation of crossbreds based on purebred SNP effects, joint evaluation of all purebreds and crossbreds with a single additive effect, and treating each purebred and crossbred group as a separate trait. Additionally, putative quantitative trait nucleotides can be exploited to increase the accuracy of prediction. Existing studies indicate that the prediction of crossbreds based on purebred data has low accuracy, that a joint evaluation can potentially provide accurate evaluations for crossbreds but could lower accuracy for purebreds compared with single-breed evaluations, and that the use of putative quantitative trait nucleotides only marginally increases the accuracy. One hypothesis is that genomic selection is based on estimation of clusters of independent chromosome segments. Subsequently, predicting a particular group type would require a reference population of the same type, and crosses with same breed percentage but different type (F₁ vs. F₂) would, at best, use separate reference populations. The genomic selection of multibreed population is still an active research topic.

Across-population genomic prediction in grapevine opens up promising prospects for breeding

Crop breeding involves two selection steps: choosing progenitors and selecting individuals within progenies. Genomic prediction, based on genome-wide marker estimation of genetic values, could facilitate these steps. However, its potential usefulness in grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) has only been evaluated in non-breeding contexts mainly through cross-validation within a single population. We tested across-population genomic prediction in a more realistic breeding configuration, from a diversity panel to ten bi-parental crosses connected within a half-diallel mating design. Prediction quality was evaluated over 15 traits of interest (related to yield, berry composition, phenology and vigour), for both the average genetic value of each cross (cross mean) and the genetic values of individuals within each cross (individual values). Genomic prediction in these conditions was found useful: for cross mean, average per-trait predictive ability was 0.6, while per-cross predictive ability was halved on average, but reached a maximum of 0.7. Mean predictive ability for individual values within crosses was 0.26, about half the within-half-diallel value taken as a reference. For some traits and/or crosses, these across-population predictive ability values are promising for implementing genomic selection in grapevine breeding. This study also provided key insights on variables affecting predictive ability. Per-cross predictive ability was well predicted by genetic distance between parents and when this predictive ability was below 0.6, it was improved by training set optimization. For individual values, predictive ability mostly depended on trait-related variables (magnitude of the cross effect and heritability). These results will greatly help designing grapevine breeding programs assisted by genomic prediction.

Genomic Prediction of Complex Traits, Principles, Overview of Factors Affecting the Reliability of Genomic Prediction, and Algebra of the Reliability

The quality of the predictions of genetic values based on the genotyping of neutral markers (GEBVs) is a key information to decide whether or not to implement genomic selection. This quality depends on the part of the genetic variability captured by the markers and on the precision of the estimate of their effects. Selection index theory provided the framework for evaluating the accuracy of GEBVs once the information had been gathered, with the genomic relationship matrix (GRM) playing a central role. When this accuracy must be known a priori, the theory of quantitative genetics gives clues to calculate the expectation of this GRM. This chapter makes a critical inventory of the methods developed to calculate these accuracies a posteriori and a priori. The most significant factors affecting this accuracy are described (size of the reference population, number of markers, linkage disequilibrium, heritability).