Moving forward through the in silico modeling of tuberculosis: a further step with UISS-TB

In Silico Studies to Support Vaccine Development

The progress that has been made in computer science positioned in silico studies as an important and well-recognized methodology in the drug discovery and development process. It has numerous advantages in terms of costs and also plays a huge impact on the way the research is conducted since it can limit the use of animal models leading to more sustainable research. Currently, human trials are already being partly replaced by in silico trials. EMA and FDA are both endorsing these studies and have been providing webinars and guidance to support them. For instance, PBPK modeling studies are being used to gather data on drug interactions with other drugs and are also being used to support clinical and regulatory requirements for the pediatric population, pregnant women, and personalized medicine. This trend evokes the need to understand the role of in silico studies in vaccines, considering the importance that these products achieved during the pandemic and their promising hope in oncology. Vaccines are safer than other current oncology treatments. There is a huge variety of strategies for developing a cancer vaccine, and some of the points that should be considered when designing the vaccine technology are the following: delivery platforms (peptides, lipid-based carriers, polymers, dendritic cells, viral vectors, etc.), adjuvants (to boost and promote inflammation at the delivery site, facilitating immune cell recruitment and activation), choice of the targeted antigen, the timing of vaccination, the manipulation of the tumor environment, and the combination with other treatments that might cause additive or even synergistic anti-tumor effects. These and many other points should be put together to outline the best vaccine design. The aim of this article is to perform a review and comprehensive analysis of the role of in silico studies to support the development of and design of vaccines in the field of oncology and infectious diseases. The authors intend to perform a literature review of all the studies that have been conducted so far in preparing in silico models and methods to support the development of vaccines. From this point, it was possible to conclude that there are few in silico studies on vaccines. Despite this, an overview of how the existing work could support the design of vaccines is described.

In silico thrombectomy trials for acute ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

In silico trials aim to speed up the introduction of new devices in clinical practice by testing device design and performance in different patient scenarios and improving patient stratification for optimizing clinical trials. In this paper, we demonstrate an in silico trial framework for thrombectomy treatment of acute ischemic stroke and apply this framework to compare treatment outcomes in different subpopulations and with different thrombectomy stent-retriever devices. We employ a novel surrogate thrombectomy model to evaluate the thrombectomy success in the in silico trial.

METHODS

The surrogate thrombectomy model, built using data from a fine-grained finite-element model, is a device-specific binary classifier (logistic regression), to estimate the probability of successful recanalization, the outcome of interest. We incorporate this surrogate model within our previously developed in silico trial framework and demonstrate its use with three examples of in silico clinical trials. The first trial is a validation trial for the surrogate thrombectomy model. We then present two exploratory trials: one evaluating the performance of a commercially available device based on the fibrin composition in the occluding thrombus and one comparing the performance of two commercially available stent retrievers.

RESULTS

The Validation Trial showed the surrogate thrombectomy model was able to reproduce a similar recanalization rate as the real-life MR CLEAN trial (p=0.6). Results from the first exploratory trial showed that the chance of successful thrombectomy increases with higher blood cell concentrations in the thrombi, which is in line with observations from clinical data. The second exploratory trial showed improved recanalization success with a newer stent retriever device; however, these results require further investigation as the surrogate model for the newer stent retriever device has not yet been validated.

CONCLUSIONS

In this novel study, we have shown that in silico trials have the potential to help inform medical device developers on the performance of a new device and may also be used to select populations of interest for a clinical trial. This would reduce the time and costs involved in device development and traditional clinical trials.

In silico clinical trials for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis with MS TreatSim

BACKGROUND

The last few decades have seen the approval of many new treatment options for Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS), as well as advances in diagnostic methodology and criteria. These developments have greatly improved the available treatment options for today's Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis patients. This increased availability of disease modifying treatments, however, has implications for clinical trial design in this therapeutic area. The availability of better diagnostics and more treatment options have not only contributed to progressively decreasing relapse rates in clinical trial populations but have also resulted in the evolution of control arms, as it is often no longer sufficient to show improvement from placebo. As a result, not only have clinical trials become longer and more expensive but comparing the results to those of "historical" trials has also become more difficult.

METHODS

In order to aid design of clinical trials in RRMS, we have developed a simulator called MS TreatSim which can simulate the response of customizable, heterogeneous groups of patients to four common Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis treatment options. MS TreatSim combines a mechanistic, agent-based model of the immune-based etiology of RRMS with a simulation framework for the generation and virtual trial simulation of populations of digital patients.

RESULTS

In this study, the product was first applied to generate diverse populations of digital patients. Then we applied it to reproduce a phase III trial of natalizumab as published 15 years ago as a use case. Within the limitations of synthetic data availability, the results showed the potential of applying MS TreatSim to recreate the relapse rates of this historical trial of natalizumab.

CONCLUSIONS

MS TreatSim's synergistic combination of a mechanistic model with a clinical trial simulation framework is a tool that may advance model-based clinical trial design.

Computational modelling and simulation for immunotoxicity prediction induced by skin sensitisers

In many domains regulating chemicals and chemical products, there is a legal requirement to determine skin sensitivity to allergens. While many in vitro assays to detect contact hypersensitivity have been developed as alternatives to animal testing over the past ten years and significant progress has been made in this area, there is still a need for continued investment in the creation of techniques and strategies that will allow accurate identification of potential contact allergens and their potency in vitro. In silico models are promising tools in this regard. However, none of the state-of-the-art systems seems to function well enough to serve as a stand-alone hazard identification tool, especially in evaluating the possible allergenicity effects in humans. The Universal Immune System Simulator, a mechanistic computational platform that simulates the human immune system response to a specific insult, provides a means of predicting the immunotoxicity induced by skin sensitisers, enriching the collection of computational models for the assessment of skin sensitization. Here, we present a specific disease layer implementation of the Universal Immune System Simulator for the prediction of allergic contact dermatitis induced by specific skin sensitizers.

Translatability and transferability of in silico models: Context of use switching to predict the effects of environmental chemicals on the immune system

Immunotoxicity hazard identification of chemicals aims to evaluate the potential for unintended effects of chemical exposure on the immune system. Perfluorinated alkylate substances (PFAS), such as perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), are persistent, globally disseminated environmental contaminants known to be immunotoxic. Elevated PFAS exposure is associated with lower antibody responses to vaccinations in children and in adults. In addition, some studies have reported a correlation between PFAS levels in the body and lower resistance to disease, in other words an increased risk of infections or cancers. In this context, modelling and simulation platforms could be used to simulate the human immune system with the aim to evaluate the adverse effects that immunotoxicants may have. Here, we show the conditions under which a mathematical model developed for one purpose and application (e.g., in the pharmaceutical domain) can be successfully translated and transferred to another (e.g., in the chemicals domain) without undergoing significant adaptation. In particular, we demonstrate that the Universal Immune System Simulator was able to simulate the effects of PFAS on the immune system, introducing entities and new interactions that are biologically involved in the phenomenon. This also revealed a potentially exploitable pathway for assessing immunotoxicity through a computational model.

Bayesian Augmented Clinical Trials in TB Therapeutic Vaccination

We propose a Bayesian hierarchical method for combining in silico and in vivo data onto an augmented clinical trial with binary end points. The joint posterior distribution from the in silico experiment is treated as a prior, weighted by a measure of compatibility of the shared characteristics with the in vivo data. We also formalise the contribution and impact of in silico information in the augmented trial. We illustrate our approach to inference with in silico data from the UISS-TB simulator, a bespoke simulator of virtual patients with tuberculosis infection, and synthetic physical patients from a clinical trial.

Towards in silico Models of the Inflammatory Response in Bone Fracture Healing

In silico modeling is a powerful strategy to investigate the biological events occurring at tissue, cellular and subcellular level during bone fracture healing. However, most current models do not consider the impact of the inflammatory response on the later stages of bone repair. Indeed, as initiator of the healing process, this early phase can alter the regenerative outcome: if the inflammatory response is too strongly down- or upregulated, the fracture can result in a non-union. This review covers the fundamental information on fracture healing, in silico modeling and experimental validation. It starts with a description of the biology of fracture healing, paying particular attention to the inflammatory phase and its cellular and subcellular components. We then discuss the current state-of-the-art regarding in silico models of the immune response in different tissues as well as the bone regeneration process at the later stages of fracture healing. Combining the aforementioned biological and computational state-of-the-art, continuous, discrete and hybrid modeling technologies are discussed in light of their suitability to capture adequately the multiscale course of the inflammatory phase and its overall role in the healing outcome. Both in the establishment of models as in their validation step, experimental data is required. Hence, this review provides an overview of the different in vitro and in vivo set-ups that can be used to quantify cell- and tissue-scale properties and provide necessary input for model credibility assessment. In conclusion, this review aims to provide hands-on guidance for scientists interested in building in silico models as an additional tool to investigate the critical role of the inflammatory phase in bone regeneration.

Scientific and regulatory evaluation of mechanistic in silico drug and disease models in drug development: Building model credibility

The value of in silico methods in drug development and evaluation has been demonstrated repeatedly and convincingly. While their benefits are now unanimously recognized, international standards for their evaluation, accepted by all stakeholders involved, are still to be established. In this white paper, we propose a risk‐informed evaluation framework for mechanistic model credibility evaluation. To properly frame the proposed verification and validation activities, concepts such as context of use, regulatory impact and risk‐based analysis are discussed. To ensure common understanding between all stakeholders, an overview is provided of relevant in silico terminology used throughout this paper. To illustrate the feasibility of the proposed approach, we have applied it to three real case examples in the context of drug development, using a credibility matrix currently being tested as a quick‐start tool by regulators. Altogether, this white paper provides a practical approach to model evaluation, applicable in both scientific and regulatory evaluation contexts.

Toward computational modelling on immune system function

The 3rd edition of the computational methods for the immune system function workshop has been held in San Diego, CA, in conjunction with the IEEE International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedicine (BIBM 2019) from November 18 to 21, 2019. The workshop has continued its growing tendency, with a total of 18 accepted papers that have been presented in a full day workshop. Among these, the best 10 papers have been selected and extended for presentation in this special issue. The covered topics range from computer-aided identification of T cell epitopes to the prediction of heart rate variability to prevent brain injuries, from In Silico modeling of Tuberculosis and generation of digital patients to machine learning applied to predict type-2 diabetes risk.