How long do Red Queen dynamics survive under genetic drift? A comparative analysis of evolutionary and eco-evolutionary models

A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin

Many pathogens evolve to escape immunity, yet it remains difficult to predict whether immune pressure will lead to diversification, serial replacement of one variant by another, or more complex patterns. Pathogen strain dynamics are mediated by cross-protective immunity, whereby exposure to one strain partially protects against infection by antigenically diverged strains. There is growing evidence that this protection is influenced by early exposures, a phenomenon referred to as original antigenic sin (OAS) or imprinting. In this paper, we derive constraints on the emergence of the pattern of successive strain replacements demonstrated by influenza, SARS-CoV-2, seasonal coronaviruses, and other pathogens. We find that OAS implies that the limited diversity found with successive strain replacement can only be maintained if [Formula: see text] is less than a threshold set by the characteristic antigenic distances for cross-protection and for the creation of new immune memory. This bound implies a "speed limit" on the evolution of new strains and a minimum variance of the distribution of infecting strains in antigenic space at any time. To carry out this analysis, we develop a theoretical model of pathogen evolution in antigenic space that implements OAS by decoupling the antigenic distances required for protection from infection and strain-specific memory creation. Our results demonstrate that OAS can play an integral role in the emergence of strain structure from host immune dynamics, preventing highly transmissible pathogens from maintaining serial strain replacement without diversification.

A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin

Many pathogens evolve to escape immunity, yet it remains difficult to predict whether immune pressure will lead to diversification, serial replacement of one variant by another, or more complex patterns. Pathogen strain dynamics are mediated by cross-protective immunity, whereby exposure to one strain partially protects against infection by antigenically diverged strains. There is growing evidence that this protection is influenced by early exposures, a phenomenon referred to as original antigenic sin (OAS) or imprinting. In this paper, we derive new constraints on the emergence of the pattern of successive strain replacements demonstrated by influenza, SARS-CoV-2, seasonal coronaviruses, and other pathogens. We find that OAS implies that the limited diversity found with successive strain replacement can only be maintained if R 0 is less than a threshold set by the characteristic antigenic distances for cross-protection and for the creation of new immune memory. This bound implies a "speed limit" on the evolution of new strains and a minimum variance of the distribution of infecting strains in antigenic space at any time. To carry out this analysis, we develop a theoretical model of pathogen evolution in antigenic space that implements OAS by decoupling the antigenic distances required for protection from infection and strain-specific memory creation. Our results demonstrate that OAS can play an integral role in the emergence of strain structure from host immune dynamics, preventing highly transmissible pathogens from maintaining serial strain replacement without diversification.

A Variational Synthesis of Evolutionary and Developmental Dynamics

This paper introduces a variational formulation of natural selection, paying special attention to the nature of 'things' and the way that different 'kinds' of 'things' are individuated from-and influence-each other. We use the Bayesian mechanics of particular partitions to understand how slow phylogenetic processes constrain-and are constrained by-fast, phenotypic processes. The main result is a formulation of adaptive fitness as a path integral of phenotypic fitness. Paths of least action, at the phenotypic and phylogenetic scales, can then be read as inference and learning processes, respectively. In this view, a phenotype actively infers the state of its econiche under a generative model, whose parameters are learned via natural (Bayesian model) selection. The ensuing variational synthesis features some unexpected aspects. Perhaps the most notable is that it is not possible to describe or model a population of conspecifics per se. Rather, it is necessary to consider populations of distinct natural kinds that influence each other. This paper is limited to a description of the mathematical apparatus and accompanying ideas. Subsequent work will use these methods for simulations and numerical analyses-and identify points of contact with related mathematical formulations of evolution.

Unraveling coevolutionary dynamics using ecological genomics

Coevolutionary interactions, from the delicate co-dependency in mutualistic interactions to the antagonistic relationship of hosts and parasites, are a ubiquitous driver of adaptation. Surprisingly, little is known about the genomic processes underlying coevolution in an ecological context. However, species comprise genetically differentiated populations that interact with temporally variable abiotic and biotic environments. We discuss the recent advances in coevolutionary theory and genomics as well as shortcomings, to identify coevolving genes that take into account this spatial and temporal variability of coevolution, and propose a practical guide to understand the dynamic of coevolution using an ecological genomics lens.

Are some species ‘robust’ to exploitation? Explaining persistence in deceptive relationships

Animals and plants trick others in an extraordinary diversity of ways to gain fitness benefits. Mimicry and deception can, for example, lure prey, reduce the costs of parental care or aid in pollination–in ways that impose fitness costs on the exploited party. The evolutionary maintenance of such asymmetric relationships often relies on these costs being mitigated through counter-adaptations, low encounter rates, or indirect fitness benefits. However, these mechanisms do not always explain the evolutionary persistence of some classic deceptive interactions.

Sexually deceptive pollination (in which plants trick male pollinators into mating with their flowers) has evolved multiple times independently, mainly in the southern hemisphere and especially in Australasia and Central and South America. This trickery imposes considerable costs on the males: they miss out on mating opportunities, and in some cases, waste their limited sperm on the flower. These relationships appear stable, yet in some cases there is little evidence suggesting that their persistence relies on counter-adaptations, low encounter rates, or indirect fitness benefits. So, how might these relationships persist?

Here, we introduce and explore an additional hypothesis from systems biology: that some species are robust to exploitation. Robustness arises from a species’ innate traits and means they are robust against costs of exploitation. This allows species to persist where a population without those traits would not, making them ideal candidates for exploitation. We propose that this mechanism may help inform new research approaches and provide insight into how exploited species might persist.

Coevolutionary theory of hosts and parasites

Host and parasite evolution are closely intertwined, with selection for adaptations and counter-adaptations forming a coevolutionary feedback loop. Coevolutionary dynamics are often difficult to intuit due to these feedbacks and are hard to demonstrate empirically in most systems. Theoretical models have therefore played a crucial role in shaping our understanding of host-parasite coevolution. Theoretical models vary widely in their assumptions, approaches and aims, and such variety makes it difficult, especially for non-theoreticians and those new to the field, to: (1) understand how model approaches relate to one another; (2) identify key modelling assumptions; (3) determine how model assumptions relate to biological systems; and (4) reconcile the results of different models with contrasting assumptions. In this review, we identify important model features, highlight key results and predictions and describe how these pertain to model assumptions. We carry out a literature survey of theoretical studies published since the 1950s (n = 219 papers) to support our analysis. We identify two particularly important features of models that tend to have a significant qualitative impact on the outcome of host-parasite coevolution: population dynamics and the genetic basis of infection. We also highlight the importance of other modelling features, such as stochasticity and whether time proceeds continuously or in discrete steps, that have received less attention but can drastically alter coevolutionary dynamics. We finish by summarizing recent developments in the field, specifically the trend towards greater model complexity, and discuss likely future directions for research.

Basal Parasitic Fungi in Marine Food Webs-A Mystery Yet to Unravel

Although aquatic and parasitic fungi have been well known for more than 100 years, they have only recently received increased awareness due to their key roles in microbial food webs and biogeochemical cycles. There is growing evidence indicating that fungi inhabit a wide range of marine habitats, from the deep sea all the way to surface waters, and recent advances in molecular tools, in particular metagenome approaches, reveal that their diversity is much greater and their ecological roles more important than previously considered. Parasitism constitutes one of the most widespread ecological interactions in nature, occurring in almost all environments. Despite that, the diversity of fungal parasites, their ecological functions, and, in particular their interactions with other microorganisms remain largely speculative, unexplored and are often missing from current theoretical concepts in marine ecology and biogeochemistry. In this review, we summarize and discuss recent research avenues on parasitic fungi and their ecological potential in marine ecosystems, e.g., the fungal shunt, and emphasize the need for further research.

Population size impacts host-pathogen coevolution

Ongoing host-pathogen interactions are characterized by rapid coevolutionary changes forcing species to continuously adapt to each other. The interacting species are often defined by finite population sizes. In theory, finite population size limits genetic diversity and compromises the efficiency of selection owing to genetic drift, in turn constraining any rapid coevolutionary responses. To date, however, experimental evidence for such constraints is scarce. The aim of our study was to assess to what extent population size influences the dynamics of host-pathogen coevolution. We used Caenorhabditus elegans and its pathogen Bacillus thuringiensis as a model for experimental coevolution in small and large host populations, as well as in host populations which were periodically forced through a bottleneck. By carefully controlling host population size for 23 host generations, we found that host adaptation was constrained in small populations and to a lesser extent in the bottlenecked populations. As a result, coevolution in large and small populations gave rise to different selection dynamics and produced different patterns of host-pathogen genotype-by-genotype interactions. Our results demonstrate a major influence of host population size on the ability of the antagonists to co-adapt to each other, thereby shaping the dynamics of antagonistic coevolution.

Novel genomic approaches to study antagonistic coevolution between hosts and parasites

Host-parasite coevolution is ubiquitous, shaping genetic and phenotypic diversity and the evolutionary trajectory of interacting species. With the advances of high throughput sequencing technologies applicable to model and non-model organisms alike, it is now feasible to study in greater detail (a) the genetic underpinnings of coevolution, (b) the speed and type of dynamics at coevolving loci, and (c) the genomic consequences of coevolution. This review focuses on three recently developed approaches that leverage information from host and parasite full genome data simultaneously to pinpoint coevolving loci and draw inference on the coevolutionary history. First, co-genome-wide association study (co-GWAS) methods allow pinpointing the loci underlying host-parasite interactions. These methods focus on detecting associations between genetic variants and the outcome of experimental infection tests or on correlations between genomes of naturally infected hosts and their infecting parasites. Second, extensions to population genomics methods can detect genes under coevolution and infer the coevolutionary history, such as fitness costs. Third, correlations between host and parasite population size in time are indicative of coevolution, and polymorphism levels across independent spatially distributed populations of hosts and parasites can reveal coevolutionary loci and infer coevolutionary history. We describe the principles of these three approaches and discuss their advantages and limitations based on coevolutionary theory. We present recommendations for their application to various host (prokaryotes, fungi, plants, and animals) and parasite (viruses, bacteria, fungi, and macroparasites) species. We conclude by pointing out methodological and theoretical gaps to be filled to extract maximum information from full genome data and thereby to shed light on the molecular underpinnings of coevolution.

Understanding evolutionary and ecological dynamics using a continuum limit

Continuum limits in the form of stochastic differential equations are typically used in theoretical population genetics to account for genetic drift or more generally, inherent randomness of the model. In evolutionary game theory and theoretical ecology, however, this method is used less frequently to study demographic stochasticity. Here, we review the use of continuum limits in ecology and evolution. Starting with an individual-based model, we derive a large population size limit, a (stochastic) differential equation which is called continuum limit. By example of the Wright-Fisher diffusion, we outline how to compute the stationary distribution, the fixation probability of a certain type, and the mean extinction time using the continuum limit. In the context of the logistic growth equation, we approximate the quasi-stationary distribution in a finite population.

Coevolution fails to maintain genetic variation in a host-parasite model with constant finite population size

Coevolutionary negative frequency-dependent selection has been hypothesized to maintain genetic variation in host and parasites. Despite the extensive literature pertaining to host-parasite coevolution, the temporal dynamics of genetic variation have not been examined in a matching-alleles model (MAM) with a finite population size relative to the expectation under neutral genetic drift alone. The dynamics of the MA coevolution in an infinite population, in fact, suggests that genetic variation in these coevolving populations behaves neutrally. By comparing host heterozygosity to the expectation in a single-species model of neutral genetic drift we find that while this is also largely true in finite populations two additional phenomena arise. First, reciprocal natural selection acting on stochastic perturbations in host and pathogen allele frequencies results in a slight increase or decrease in genetic variation depending on the parameter conditions. Second, following the fixation of an allele in the parasite, selection in the MAM becomes directional, which then rapidly erodes genetic variation in the host. Hence, rather than maintain it, we find that, on average, matching-alleles coevolution depletes genetic variation.

Host-parasite co-evolution and its genomic signature

Studies in diverse biological systems have indicated that host-parasite co-evolution is responsible for the extraordinary genetic diversity seen in some genomic regions, such as major histocompatibility (MHC) genes in jawed vertebrates and resistance genes in plants. This diversity is believed to evolve under balancing selection on hosts by parasites. However, the mechanisms that link the genomic signatures in these regions to the underlying co-evolutionary process are only slowly emerging. We still lack a clear picture of the co-evolutionary concepts and of the genetic basis of the co-evolving phenotypic traits in the interacting antagonists. Emerging genomic tools that provide new options for identifying underlying genes will contribute to a fuller understanding of the co-evolutionary process.

The dynamics of trait variance in multi-species communities

In this paper, we establish the explicit connection between deterministic trait-based population-level models (in the form of partial differential equations) and species-level models (in the form of ordinary differential equations), in the context of eco-evolutionary systems. In particular, by starting from a population-level model of density distributions in trait space, we derive what amounts to an extension of the typical models at the species level known from adaptive dynamics literature, to account not only for abundance and mean trait values, but also explicitly for trait variances. Thus, we arrive at an explicitly polymorphic model at the species level. The derivations make precise the relationship between the parameters in the two classes of models and allow us to distinguish between notions of fitness on the population and species levels. Through a formal stability analysis, we see that exponential growth of an eigenvalue in the trait covariance matrix corresponds to a breakdown of the underlying assumptions of the species-level model. In biological terms, this may be interpreted as a speciation event: that is, we obtain an explicit notion of the blow-up of the variance of (possibly a linear combination of) traits as a precursor to speciation. Moreover, since evolutionary volatility of the mean trait value is proportional to trait variance, this provides a notion that species at the cusp of speciation are also the most adaptive. We illustrate these concepts and considerations using a numerical simulation.