New CHA2DS2-VASc-HSF score predicts the no-reflow phenomenon after primary percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

No-Reflow Prediction in Acute Coronary Syndrome During Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: The NORPACS Risk Score

BACKGROUND

Suboptimal coronary reperfusion (no reflow) is common in acute coronary syndrome percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and is associated with poor outcomes. We aimed to develop and externally validate a clinical risk score for angiographic no reflow for use following angiography and before PCI.

METHODS

We developed and externally validated a logistic regression model for prediction of no reflow among adult patients undergoing PCI for acute coronary syndrome using data from the Melbourne Interventional Group PCI registry (2005-2020; development cohort) and the British Cardiovascular Interventional Society PCI registry (2006-2020; external validation cohort).

RESULTS

A total of 30 561 patients (mean age, 64.1 years; 24% women) were included in the Melbourne Interventional Group development cohort and 440 256 patients (mean age, 64.9 years; 27% women) in the British Cardiovascular Interventional Society external validation cohort. The primary outcome (no reflow) occurred in 4.1% (1249 patients) and 9.4% (41 222 patients) of the development and validation cohorts, respectively. From 33 candidate predictor variables, 6 final variables were selected by an adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model for inclusion (cardiogenic shock, ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction with symptom onset >195 minutes pre-PCI, estimated stent length ≥20 mm, vessel diameter <2.5 mm, pre-PCI Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction flow <3, and lesion location). Model discrimination was very good (development C statistic, 0.808; validation C statistic, 0.741) with excellent calibration. Patients with a score of ≥8 points had a 22% and 27% risk of no reflow in the development and validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The no-reflow prediction in acute coronary syndrome risk score is a simple count-based scoring system based on 6 parameters available before PCI to predict the risk of no reflow. This score could be useful in guiding preventative treatment and future trials.

Impact of HAT2CH2 Score on the Development of No-Reflow Phenomenon in Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

The HAT2CH2 score [Hypertension (1 point), Age > 75 years (1 point), Stroke/Transient ischemic attack (2 points), Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1 point), and Heart failure (2 points)] was originally developed to predict the occurrence of new-onset atrial fibrillation. The aim of the present study was to examine whether this score could predict the development of no-reflow phenomenon (NR) in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). Patients (n = 1552) with STEMI were consecutively enrolled in this single-center retrospective study. The SYNTAX score (SXscore) and HAT2CH2 score were calculated. The presence of thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) score ≤2, without significant residual stenosis and mechanical obstruction, indicated the presence of NR. The HAT2CH2 score was significantly higher in the NR (+) group compared with the NR (-) group [2.29 ± 1.43 vs 1.46 ± 1.24, p < .001]. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, the HAT2CH2 score [OR = 1.585, p < .001] and SXscore [OR = 1.028, p = .017] were found to be independent predictors of NR. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the HAT2CH2 score with a cutoff value of >2 determined NR, with 50.2% sensitivity and 79.4% specificity (AUC = .669, p < .001). In conclusion, the HAT2CH2 score may facilitate risk stratification in estimating NR in STEMI patients undergoing pPCI.

Thromboembolic risk scores in patients with non-obstructive coronary architecture with and without coronary slow flow: A case-control study

AIM

Coronary slow flow phenomenon (CSFP) detected on coronary angiography (CA) has been related to poor prognosis. We sought to examine the relationship between thromboembolic risk scores, routinely used in cardiology practice, and CSFP.

METHODS

This single-center, retrospective, case-control study comprised 505 individuals suffering from angina and had verified ischemia between January 2021 and January 2022. Demographic and laboratory parameters were obtained from the hospital database. The following risk scores were calculated; CHA₂DS₂-VASc, M-CHA₂DS₂-VASc, CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HS, R₂-CHA₂DS₂-VASc, M-R₂-CHA₂DS₂-VASc, ATRIA, M-ATRIA, M-ATRIA-HSV. The overall population was divided into two groups; coronary slow flow and coronary normal flow. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to compare risk scores between patients with and without CSFP. Pairwise comparisons were then undertaken to test performance in determining CSFP.

RESULTS

The mean age was 51.7 ± 10.7 years, of whom 63.2% were male. CSFP was detected in 222 patients. Those with CSFP had higher rates of male gender, diabetes, smoking, hyperlipidemia, and vascular disease. All scores were higher in CSFP patients. Multivariable logistic regression analysis found that CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HS score was the most powerful determinant of CSFP among all risk schemes (for each one-point increase in score OR = 1.90, p < 0.001; for score of 2-3 OR = 5.20, p < 0.001; for score of >4 OR = 13.89, p < 0.001). Also, the CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HS score provided the best discriminative performance, with a cut-off value of ≥2 in identifying CSFP (AUC = 0.759, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

We showed that thromboembolic risk scores may be associated with CSFP in patients with non-obstructive coronary architecture who underwent CA. The CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HS score had the best discriminative ability.

Association between kaolin-induced maximum amplitude and slow-flow/no-reflow in ST elevation myocardial infarction patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention

BACKGROUND

ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients with a high thrombus burden have a relatively high slow-flow/no-reflow risk. However, the association between kaolin-induced maximum amplitude (MA_thrombin) and slow-flow/no-reflow has been scarcely explored.

METHODS

STEMI patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) were retrospectively enrolled from January 2015 to December 2019 at China-Japan Friendship Hospital. MA_thrombin levels were measured using thromboelastography before the PCI procedure. The patients were divided into two groups according to thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) flow grade after primary PCI: the normal flow group (TIMI flow grade = 3) and slow-flow/no-reflow (TIMI flow grade ≤ 2). The logistic regression model and restricted cubic spline regression (RCS) were used to analyze the predictive value of MA_thrombin for slow-flow/no-reflow. All patients were followed up after discharge and observed the adverse cardiovascular events between the two groups.

RESULTS

A total of 690 patients were enrolled, with 108(15.7%) having slow-flow/no-reflow. The multivariate logistic regression model analysis showed that MA_thrombin level was an independent risk factor for slow-flow/no-reflow. The RCS analysis showed a nonlinear relationship between MA_thrombin levels and slow-flow/no-reflow. The cut-off value of MA_thrombin levels for predicting slow-flow/no-reflow was 68 mm. During a median follow-up time of 4.4 years, slow-flow/no-reflow (hazard ratio 1.93, 95% confidence interval 1.27-2.93, P = 0.002) and MA_thrombin levels (hazard ratio 1.06, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.08, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for predicting the long-term of adverse clinical cardiovascular events.

CONCLUSION

MA_thrombin was an independent risk factor for predicting slow-flow/ no-reflow in STEMI patients who underwent primary PCI.

Machine learning to predict no reflow and in-hospital mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction that underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention

BACKGROUND

The machine learning algorithm (MLA) was implemented to establish an optimal model to predict the no reflow (NR) process and in-hospital death that occurred in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients who underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI).

METHODS

The data were obtained retrospectively from 854 STEMI patients who underwent pPCI. MLA was applied to predict the potential NR phenomenon and confirm the in-hospital mortality. A random sampling method was used to split the data into the training (66.7%) and testing (33.3%) sets. The final results were an average of 10 repeated procedures. The area under the curve (AUC) and the associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the receiver operator characteristic were measured.

RESULTS

A random forest algorithm (RAN) had optimal discrimination for the NR phenomenon with an AUC of 0.7891 (95% CI: 0.7093-0.8688) compared with 0.6437 (95% CI: 0.5506-0.7368) for the decision tree (CTREE), 0.7488 (95% CI: 0.6613-0.8363) for the support vector machine (SVM), and 0.681 (95% CI: 0.5767-0.7854) for the neural network algorithm (NNET). The optimal RAN AUC for in-hospital mortality was 0.9273 (95% CI: 0.8819-0.9728), for SVM, 0.8935 (95% CI: 0.826-0.9611); NNET, 0.7756 (95% CI: 0.6559-0.8952); and CTREE, 0.7885 (95% CI: 0.6738-0.9033).

CONCLUSIONS

The MLA had a relatively higher performance when evaluating the NR risk and in-hospital mortality in patients with STEMI who underwent pPCI and could be utilized in clinical decision making.

Predictive Value of CHA2DS2 -VASc-HSF Score for Severity of Acute Coronary Syndrome

CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores have been used to assess the prognostic risk of thromboembolism in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients. Recent studies have shown the utility of CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores for evaluating the severity of coronary artery disease (CAD). The newly defined CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HSF score evaluates atherosclerosis and is associated with CAD severity. This study investigated the association between the CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HSF score and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) severity as assessed by the Gensini score and the number of vessels. Furthermore, this study also compared the diagnostic value of the CHADS₂, CHA2 DS2-VASc, and CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HSF score for ACS. A total of 2367 eligible inpatients (ACS group [n = 2030]; non-CAD group [n = 337]) were consecutively enrolled in this study. Receiver operating characteristic curve diagnostic tests and logistic regression models were used to analyze the risk factors for ACS. The CHADS₂, CHA₂DS₂-VASc, and CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HSF scores were significantly higher in the ACS group than those in the control group. After adjusting for numerous traditional CAD risk factors, an increased CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HSF score was found to be an independent risk factor for patients with ACS (odds ratio 1.401, 95% confidence interval 1.044, −1.879; P < 0.05). A newly diagnosed CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HSF score predicts the severity of ACS.

The ATRIA and Modified-ATRIA Scores in Evaluating the Risk of No-Reflow in Patients With STEMI Undergoing Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

The no-reflow (NR) phenomenon is frequently encountered in acute coronary syndrome. We evaluated the association between anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation (ATRIA) and modified ATRIA risk scores and NR in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Consecutive patients (n = 551) who underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention between December 2019 and June 2020 due to STEMI were included. The mean age of the patients was 60.5 ± 10.8 years (n = 369, 67% male). The ATRIA and modified anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation-hyperlipidemia, smoking, male (m-ATRIA-HS) scores were calculated. The NR group had higher frequency of diabetes mellitus (DM), serum creatine kinase-MB (CK-MB) levels, and corrected thrombolysis in myocardial infarction frame count (cTFC) (P = .002, P = .006, and P < .001, respectively). In regression analysis, ATRIA, m-ATRIA-HS, thrombus grade, and cTFC were independent predictors of NR. Age, higher CK-MB, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and DM were the other predictors for NR. Pairwise comparison of receiver operating characteristics curve analysis showed that the m-ATRIA-HS (>2, area under curve [AUC]: 0.715) has better performance than ATRIA score (>1, AUC: 0.656), with a P < .022 and z statistics 2.279. In conclusion, ATRIA, especially the m-ATRIA-HS, can be used to evaluate NR risk in STEMI.

Plasma calprotectin was associated with platelet activation and no-reflow phenomenon in acute coronary syndrome

Background

No-reflow occurs in 3–4% of all percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) and has a strong negative impact on clinical outcomes of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Therefore, the discovery of a biomarker that can early predict the occurrence of no-reflow has great clinical significance. Multiple factors including platelet activation are relevant to no-reflow. Calprotectin is found to be a biomarker of plaque instability and is identified to be a novel diagnostic and prognostic biomarker of cardiovascular diseases. The association of plasma calprotectin with platelet activation and no-reflow phenomenon in ACS is not clear.

Methods

In this prospective study performed at Yantai Yuhuangding Hospital from 2017 to 2018, a total of 176 Chinese patients with ACS who had undergone PCIs were recruited consecutively, aged from 30 to 88 years. Angiographic no-reflow was defined as thrombolysis in myocardial infarction grade less than 3. Blood samples were collected immediately at admission for the detection of plasma calprotectin and platelet–monocyte aggregates formation. Statistical analysis was performed for the variable’s comparisons between groups and the prediction value of plasma calprotectin for no-reflow.

Results

The mean age of the 176 included ACS patients were 64(±11) years and acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was present in 41.5% of patients. Twenty-two patients had no-reflow during the PCI procedures and the prevalence was 12.5%. Patients with higher plasma calprotectin had a higher level of platelet–monocyte aggregates (PMA) and a higher prevalence of no-reflow (p < 0.001). The multivariate regression showed that plasma calprotectin and admission hs-cTnI were independently associated with PMA, while plasma calprotectin and serum LDL-c were independent predictors of no-reflow (p < 0.001 and p = 0.017). AUC of calprotectin for predicting no-reflow were 0.898. The cut-off value of plasma calprotectin for no-reflow was 4748.77 ng/mL with a sensitivity of 0.95 and a specificity of 0.77.

Conclusion

Plasma calprotectin was associated with platelet activation and may act as an early predictive biomarker of no-reflow in patients with acute coronary syndrome.