Machine learning models for predicting unscheduled return visits to an emergency department: a scoping review

A pre-trained language model for emergency department intervention prediction using routine physiological data and clinical narratives

INTRODUCTION

The urgency and complexity of emergency room (ER) settings require precise and swift decision-making processes for patient care. Ensuring the timely execution of critical examinations and interventions is vital for reducing diagnostic errors, but the literature highlights a need for innovative approaches to optimize diagnostic accuracy and patient outcomes. In response, our study endeavors to create predictive models for timely examinations and interventions by leveraging the patient's symptoms and vital signs recorded during triage, and in so doing, augment traditional diagnostic methodologies.

METHODS

Focusing on four key areas-medication dispensing, vital interventions, laboratory testing, and emergency radiology exams, the study employed Natural Language Processing (NLP) and seven advanced machine learning techniques. The research was centered around the innovative use of BioClinicalBERT, a state-of-the-art NLP framework.

RESULTS

BioClinicalBERT emerged as the superior model, outperforming others in predictive accuracy. The integration of physiological data with patient narrative symptoms demonstrated greater effectiveness compared to models based solely on textual data. The robustness of our approach was confirmed by an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) score of 0.9.

CONCLUSION

The findings of our study underscore the feasibility of establishing a decision support system for emergency patients, targeting timely interventions and examinations based on a nuanced analysis of symptoms. By using an advanced natural language processing technique, our approach shows promise for enhancing diagnostic accuracy. However, the current model is not yet fully mature for direct implementation into daily clinical practice. Recognizing the imperative nature of precision in the ER environment, future research endeavors must focus on refining and expanding predictive models to include detailed timely examinations and interventions. Although the progress achieved in this study represents an encouraging step towards a more innovative and technology-driven paradigm in emergency care, full clinical integration warrants further exploration and validation.

Discriminating insulin resistance in middle-aged nondiabetic women using machine learning approaches

Objective

We employed machine learning algorithms to discriminate insulin resistance (IR) in middle-aged nondiabetic women.

Methods

The data was from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007-2018). The study subjects were 2084 nondiabetic women aged 45-64. The analysis included 48 predictors. We randomly divided the data into training (n = 1667) and testing (n = 417) datasets. Four machine learning techniques were employed to discriminate IR: extreme gradient boosting (XGBoosting), random forest (RF), gradient boosting machine (GBM), and decision tree (DT). The area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and F1 score were compared as performance metrics to select the optimal technique.

Results

The XGBoosting algorithm achieved a relatively high AUC of 0.93 in the training dataset and 0.86 in the testing dataset to discriminate IR using 48 predictors and was followed by the RF, GBM, and DT models. After selecting the top five predictors to build models, the XGBoost algorithm with the AUC of 0.90 (training dataset) and 0.86 (testing dataset) remained the optimal prediction model. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values revealed the associations between the five predictors and IR, namely BMI (strongly positive impact on IR), fasting glucose (strongly positive), HDL-C (medium negative), triglycerides (medium positive), and glycohemoglobin (medium positive). The threshold values for identifying IR were 29 kg/m2, 100 mg/dL, 54.5 mg/dL, 89 mg/dL, and 5.6% for BMI, glucose, HDL-C, triglycerides, and glycohemoglobin, respectively.

Conclusion

The XGBoosting algorithm demonstrated superior performance metrics for discriminating IR in middle-aged nondiabetic women, with BMI, glucose, HDL-C, glycohemoglobin, and triglycerides as the top five predictors.

Machine learning models for predicting unscheduled return visits to an emergency department: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Unscheduled return visits (URVs) to emergency departments (EDs) are used to assess the quality of care in EDs. Machine learning (ML) models can incorporate a wide range of complex predictors to identify high-risk patients and reduce errors to save time and cost. However, the accuracy and practicality of such models are questionable. This review compares the predictive power of multiple ML models and examines the effects of multiple research factors on these models' performance in predicting URVs to EDs.

METHODS

We conducted the present scoping review by searching eight databases for data from 2010 to 2023. The criteria focused on eligible articles that used ML to predict ED return visits. The primary outcome was the predictive performances of the ML models, and results were analyzed on the basis of intervals of return visits, patient population, and research scale.

RESULTS

A total of 582 articles were identified through the database search, with 14 articles selected for detailed analysis. Logistic regression was the most widely used method; however, eXtreme Gradient Boosting generally exhibited superior performance. Variations in visit interval, target group, and research scale did not significantly affect the predictive power of the models.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to summarize the use of ML for predicting URVs in ED patients. The development of practical ML prediction models for ED URVs is feasible, but improving the accuracy of predicting ED URVs to beyond 0.75 remains a challenge. Including multiple data sources and dimensions is key for enabling ML models to achieve high accuracy; however, such inclusion could be challenging within a limited timeframe. The application of ML models for predicting ED URVs may improve patient safety and reduce medical costs by decreasing the frequency of URVs. Further research is necessary to explore the real-world efficacy of ML models.